College Football Handicapping: Totals Analysis For Week 8

California and Arizona State's total is listed at only 53 points

Statistics tell only part of the story when looking at totals. Some times, it’s the pace of the game or even the history of the series.  Take the Arizona State-California game. The total is a moderate 53 points. The over for Arizona State is only 2-2, but the Sun Devils have posted some good offensive numbers. They score 32.8 points and gain 455 yards on 76 plays. They allow 21.7 points and 403 total yards.  Cal also posts some decent numbers as it scores 32.2 points and gains 378 total yards on 64 plays a game. It allows 21.2 points.  Historically, the over has not fared well as in their last five meetings; the over is 1-4. Only twice in that span did they combine for more than 50 points.

Here is a look at some of the other totals for this week’s college schedule:  Remember that you can compare all the lines and spreads for all of the college football games on our college football odds page.

UCLA at Oregon (61 ½): The Ducks have gone under the total only once this year and that was last week when the total was a whopping 70 and they combined for 66 points with Washington State. This week, it’s UCLA. Oregon, which averages 54.3 points, will do its job for the total. The question is will UCLA post enough points and it may only need to score 17 to 21 to get to the total. In its last three games, Oregon has allowed 28 points a game and 484 total yards. UCLA is averaging 22.7 points a game. In their last four meetings, the over is 0-3-1.

Notre Dame at Navy (51):Notre Dame found its offensive mojo last week, scoring 44 points against Western Michigan. Actually, in its last three games, the Irish are averaging 32.7 points, while giving up 16.7. Navy has been a bit more conservative, scoring 21 points a game, while giving up 18. In this series, the last two meetings have gone under the total.

North Carolina at Miami (48): The over for the Tar Heels is 3-3, while they have averaged 35.7 points in their last three games, while giving up 14.3 points. Miami has been averaging 29.2 points and 382 total yards, while giving up 19.7 points. The last three meetings have gone over the total, and they have combined for more than 50 points in each game.

Wisconsin at Iowa (48): The last three games for Wisconsin have gone over the total, while Iowa has been a bit more defensive as the over is 2-3. The Badgers have scored 36.3 points a game, and have total yards of 434. Of those yards, 233 has been rushing as they have pounded teams on the ground with running back John Clay. Iowa has been scoring 34.3 points and allowing 13.2. The last four meetings has been a mixed bag as the over is 2-2. It will all come down to if the Iowa defense can slow down Wisconsin.

Kansas State at Baylor (59): The last three games for Baylor has gone over, while the last two for Kansas State has gone over. The Wildcats have averaged 32.5 points, while giving up 22.3. Baylor has scored 33.1 points and gained 486 total yards, while giving up 20.6. In its last three games, Baylor have allowed 434 total yards.

Oklahoma at Missouri (52 ½): This is a battle of two undefeated teams as Oklahoma has scored 36 points a game, while gaining 460 total yards on 86 plays a game. It allows 19 points. Missouri scores 34.5 points. But the story here might be the Missouri defense as it limits teams to 10.8 points a game and 329 total yards. This has been a high-scoring series as the last three meetings; the over is 2-1. All three games topped 50 points.

Nebraska at Oklahoma State (60): The over for both teams is 5-1 as scoring comes pretty easy for each squad. For both teams, the one under came last week. Expect both teams to rebound this week as Nebraska averages 36.8 points on 445 total yards. Oklahoma State has even more impressive numbers as it scores 49.5 points on 535 total yards. It averages 78 plays a game. Its defense gives up 29.5 points.

Alabama at Tennessee (48): The over for the Vols is 4-1, while for Alabama the over is only 2-5. The story for the total here lies with the Crimson Tide’s defense. It scores 33 .3 points a game, but only allows 12.9 and 288 total yards. The Vols score 23.3 points, but allow 27.5 points. The last two meetings have gone under the total.

Texas Tech at Colorado (57 ½): The over for the Red Raiders is 4-2 as they score 33.5 points a game and gain 430 total yards on 80 plays. Defensively, they allow 32 points and allow 435 total yards on 76 plays. Those numbers point to an over. But Colorado may slow it down a bit. The Buffs score 19.3 points a game and allow 25.3. It’s not quite the same pace as Texas Tech. The last five meetings have gone under the total.

LSU at Auburn (52 ½): The over for LSU is 2-4 as it scores 26.7 points, but allow only 14.4 points a game. Auburn is better, offensively, scoring 40.7 points a game and gaining 481 total yards. It allows 24.4 points. Two of their last three meetings have gone over the total.

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Posted by on Oct 21 2010. Filed under College Football, Headlines. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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