College Football Betting Outback Bowl: #18 Michigan Wolverines vs #10 South Carolina Gamecocks
2013 Outback Bowl
Tuesday, January 1, 2013, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
#18 Michigan Wolverines vs #10 South Carolina Gamecocks
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa Bay, Florida
Opening Line: South Carolina -3 1/2
Current Line: South Carolina -4 1/2
Opening Line: 48 1/2
Current Line: 47 1/2
Opening Money Line: South Carolina -200 / Michigan +170
Current Money Line: South Carolina -230 / Michigan +190
The #10 South Carolina Gamecocks face off with the #18 Michigan Wolverines. The Gamecocks are 10-2 and the Wolverines are 8-4 this season. This is the third meeting ever between the two schools. They played a home and home in 1980 and 1985 with each winning on the other’s home field.
South Carolina is 5-12 all-time in bowl games. The Gamecocks beat Nebraska 30-13 in the Capital One Bowl last season to break a 3 game losing streak in bowl games. Michigan is 20-21 in bowl games all time and has been bowl eligible in 36 of the last 37 years. The Wolverines beat Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl last season 23020 in overtime.
Michigan was 6-2 in the Big Ten under coach Brady Hoke. The Wolverines have losses to Alabama 41-14 in Arlington, Texas, at Notre Dame 13-6, at Nebraska 23-9 and at Ohio St 26-21 to close out the regular season. Michigan has home wins over Air Force 31-25, Massachusetts 63-13, Illinois 45-0, Michigan St 12-10, Northwestern 38-31 and Iowa 42-17 along with road wins at Purdue 44-13 and at Minnesota 35-13. The Wolverines are 5-7 ATS and the total is 6-6 this season.
Michigan is averaging 385.4 yards per game on offense including 198.1 passing yards and 188.3 rushing yards. The Wolverines are #98 in passing and #80 in total offense out of 124 teams nationally. Michigan is outscoring teams 30-19 this season. The Wolverines are -8 in turnovers with 25 giveaways. Michigan is averaging 48 penalty yards and has allowed 15 sacks. The Wolverines are 85/163 on third and fourth down conversions and 38/41 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns. On defense, Michigan is allowing 311.2 yards per game, including 155.2 passing yards and 156 rushing yards Wolverines are #10 in total defense, #2 against the pass and #16 in scoring defense. Michigan has forced 19 sacks and 17 turnovers. Wolverine opponents are 69/187 on third and fourth down conversions and 33/40 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns.
Michigan has used 2 quarterbacks this year. Denard Robinson missed a couple of games with an elbow injury. when he came back, he split the snaps with wide receiver turned quarterback Devin Gardner. In the last two games, Robinson has been strictly used as a running back. Robinson has completed 89 of 166 passes (53.6%) for 1,319 yards with 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Robinson also leads the Wolverines in rushing with 154 yards, 1,166 yards and 7 touchdowns. Gardner is 57/90 (63.3%) passing with 1,005 yards, 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 7 rushing touchdowns. Gardner has 16 catches, 266 yards and 4 touchdowns. Gardner got the start when Robinson was injured because back-up Russell Bellomy threw four interceptions and no touchdowns mostly in mop-up duty. Gardner will start against South Carolina.
Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint had 130 carries, 391 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 62 yards and a touchdown. He is out for the season with a leg injury, part of the reason Robinson moved to running back. Thomas Rawls has 57 catches, 242 yards and 4 touchdowns.Vincent Smith and Justice Hayes will also get some carries.
Receiver Jeremy Gallon has 40 catches, 684 yards and 2 touchdowns. Roy Roundtree has 28 catches, 553 yards and 3 touchdowns. Drew Dileo has 17 catches, 309 yards and a touchdown. Devin Funchess has 14 catches, 230 yards and 5 touchdowns. Seven Michigan defensive players are listed as questionable or out Tuesday
South Carolina finished 6-2 in the SEC under coach Steve Spurrier. The Gamecocks have won 4 straight games. South Carolina has losses at LSU 23-21 and 44-11 at Florida. The Gamecocks have home wins over East Carolina 48-10, UAB 49-6, Missouri 31-10, Georgia 35-7, Tennessee 38-35, Arkansas 38-20, and Wofford 24-7, along with road wins at Vanderbilt 17-13, Kentucky 38-17 and Clemson 27-17 to close out the regular season. South Carolina is 8-4 ATS and the total is 7-4.
South Carolina is averaging 372.4 yards per game including 229.5 passing and 142.9 rushing yards per game. They are outscoring teams 31-17. South Carolina is #88 in total offense and #85 in rushing. The Gamecocks are +3 in turnovers with 19 giveaways. South Carolina is averaging 40 penalty yards per game and has allowed 35 sacks this season. The Gamecocks are 81/181 on third and fourth down conversions and 38/46 scoring in the red zone with 30 touchdowns. On defense, South Carolina is allowing 312.2 yards per game including 193.2 passing and 119 rushing yards. The Gamecocks are 17th or better nationally in all defensive categories. South Carolina has forced 40 sacks and 22 turnovers. Gamecock opponents are 71/194 on third and fourth down conversions and 28/39 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns. South Carolina has a punt return for a touchdown and 4 defensive touchdowns.
South Carolina has also used 2 quarterbacks this season. Connor Shaw missed the Clemson game with a foot injury. He is listed as probable Tuesday. Dylan Thompson started that game, and the East Carolina game early in the season. He also took some snaps in several other games. Spurrier said Shaw would start the Bowl game. Shaw has completed 136 of 202 passes (67.3%) for 1,732 yards with 15 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 121 carries, 339 yards and 3 touchdowns. Thompson has completed 59 of 117 passes (50.4%) for 910 yards with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown.
The running game took a serious hit when running back Marcus Lattimore suffered a gruesome dislocated knee 9 games into the season. He had 662 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns and 173 receiving yards. Kenny Miles has 99 carries, 358 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 168 yards. He is probable with a knee injury. Mike Davis has 52 carries, 275 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 34 yards.
Receiver Bruce Ellington has 38 catches, 564 yards and 6 touchdowns. Ace Sanders has 36 catches, 439 yards and 7 touchdowns. He also has a punt return for a touchdown and threw a touchdown pass as well. Damiere Byrd has 12 catches, 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. Justice Cunningham has 22 catches 287 yards and no touchdowns. Rory Anderson has only 13 catches, but 5 of them were for touchdowns. D.L. Moore has two touchdown catches, but is suspended for the bowl game.
South Carolina is 7-0 ATS after allowing less than 20 points, 10-1 after a straight up win, 5-1 in non-conference games, 8-2 against teams with winning records, 10-3 on grass, 6-2 after a cover, and after passing for 280 yards or more, 8-3 overall, and 1-5 in neutral site games.
Michigan is 5-1 ATS after allowing more than 200 yards rushing, 4-1 after a straight up loss, and after failing to cover, 2-5 on grass, 1-3-1 in bowl games, 7-21-1 against teams with winning records, and 1-4-1 in neutral site games.
This should be a defensive struggle with two of the top defenses in the country. The offenses struggle sometimes as well. I think South Carolina has a little too much for Michigan to pull off the upset.
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