2016 NCAA Tournament
West Region – Regional Semifinals
#4 Duke Blue Devils vs #1 Oregon Ducks
Honda Center – Anaheim, California
Thursday, March 24, 2016, 10:05 pm Eastern, TV: TBS
Opening Line: Oregon -2 1/2
Current Line: Oregon -3
Opening Total: 146
Current Total: 146
Opening Money Line: Oregon -130 / Duke +110
Current Money Line: Oregon -160 / Duke +140
A record six ACC teams made the sweet 16 this season. None of the six would play each other until the elite eight if they advanced. The 25-10 Duke Blue Devils are the #4 seed in the West Region and take on the #1 seed Oregon Ducks who are 30-6 in the regional semifinal Thursday in Anaheim. The winner between Duke and Oregon will play either #2 seed Oklahoma or #3 Texas A&M in the regional final Saturday. Duke won the only previous meeting against Oregon 98-71 in 2010 in Portland, Oregon.
Duke tied for fifth in the ACC with Notre Dame at 11-7. The Blue Devils lost to Notre Dame in the ACC quarterfinals 84-79. Since 1984, Duke has played in the NCAA Tournament every year except for 1995. The Blue Devils have played in 12 Final Fours in that stretch with five national titles. Duke beat #13 seed UNC-Wilmington 93-85 in the first round and #12 Yale 71-64 in the second round Saturday, both in Providence.
Duke is coached by Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils have neutral site losses to Kentucky in Chicago and Utah in New York and Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament. Duke has road losses at Clemson, Miami, Louisville and Pittsburgh, along with home losses to Notre Dame, Syracuse, and North Carolina. The Blue Devils have neutral site wins over VCU and Georgetown in New York and NC State in the ACC Tournament, plus road wins at Boston College, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina. Duke has home wins over Siena, Yale, Utah State, Indiana, Buffalo, Long Beach State, Virginia Tech, NC State, Louisville, Virginia, Florida State, and Wake Forest. Duke is 14-18-2 ATS and the total is 15-19 this season. The Blue Devils were 6 point favorites against Yale and the total was 147.5.
Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. Oregon won the Pac 12 regular season title outright at 14-4. The Ducks beat Washington in the Pac 12 quarterfinals, Arizona in the semifinals and Utah in the championship game. The Ducks beat #16 seed Holy Cross 91-52 in the first round and #8 seed St. Joseph’s 69-64 in the second round Sunday, both in Spokane. Oregon is making their 5th trip to the Sweet 16 in fourteen tournament appearances.
The Ducks have road losses at UNLV, Boise State, Oregon State Colorado, California and Stanford. Oregon has a neutral site win over Navy in Hawaii, plus road wins over Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, and USC. The Ducks have home wins over Baylor, Valparaiso, Arkansas State, Fresno State, UC-Irvine, Long Beach State, Alabama, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Colorado, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State, and Washington. Oregon is 20-13 ATS and the total is 15-18 this season. The Ducks were a 7 point favorite against St. Joseph’s and the total was 156.
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Duke is outscoring teams 82-72 this season. The Blue Devils are #17 nationally in scoring. Duke is shooting 45.9% from the field and 38.7% from 3 point range. The Blue Devils are #22 in three point shooting nationally. Duke makes 72.2% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.5% from the field and 33.9% from 3 point range. Duke averages 36.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 33.4 per game. The Blue Devils average 13 assists, 9.6 turnovers, 6 steals and 4.3 blocks per game. Opponents average 13.8 assists, 11.7 turnovers, 4.3 steals and 3.2 blocks per game.
Grayson Allen averages 21.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Brandon Ingram averages 16.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. Luke Kennard averages 11.5 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Matt Jones averages 11.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1 steal per game. Marshall Plumlee averages 8.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Derryck Thornton averages 7.8 points, 2.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. Amile Jefferson is out indefinitely with a foot injury.
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Oregon is outscoring teams 79-70 this season. The Ducks are shooting 46.6% from the field and 34.4% from 3 point range. Oregon makes 71.7% from the free throw line. Opponents are shooting 42.4% from the field and 36.1% from 3 point range. Oregon averages 36.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 30.3 per game. Oregon averages 13.7 assists, 11.7 turnovers, 7.4 steals and 5.9 blocks per game. Opponents average 13.2 assists, 14.2 turnovers, 4.6 steals and 3.1 blocks per game.
Dillon Brooks averages 16.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Elgin Cook averages 14.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Tyler Dorsey averages 13.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Chris Boucher averages 12 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game. Dwayne Benjamin averages 8.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game.
Duke is 7-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games, 1-3-1 after a straight up win, 1-4 against teams with winning records, 1-6 overall, 1-7 in neutral site games, and 0-5-1 after a cover.
Oregon is 7-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament games, 6-2 after a straight up win and overall, 11-4 against teams with winning records, 5-2 in Thursday games and in non-conference games, 11-5 after failing to cover and 0-4 against ACC teams.
Oregon sometimes struggles in defending the three and Duke is very good at shooting threes. Duke doesn’t have a lot of depth with only a seven man rotation. Duke is the defending national champion and will not go down without a fight. Still, I think Oregon wins a close game in what should be a high scoring game.