Maddux Sports Blog

Two things are catching my eye as I glance at the sports news today:

The Olympics are now only three days away. I will be writing extensively about how to get some action down on them as they go on. For now, though, the biggest story is obviously the basketball - the Redeem Team. My position on them is this - I think that they are going to win the gold medal, but they are ridiculously undervalued to do so, so I won’t be betting on them. Proof of the difficulties came in full force last night. They played an exhibition game against Australia. The Aussies rested Andrew Bogut, so it should have been an absolute and utter cake walk for the Americans. It wasn’t. They ultimately won by 11, but en route they encountered way more troubles than they should have. The Aussies were close well into the third quarter, and they were able to shake Kobe Bryant and knock him off his game. I’m not saying for a second that this shows that the Americans are going to lose. It doesn’t. What it does show, though, is that international basketball is tough, and anything could happen. This will not be the walk in the park for the Americans that the odds and much of the media suggests it will be.

Tito Ortiz is no longer with the UFC. That was a given - he was washed up, and Dana White seems to hate him. What is surprising, though, is that it appears that Ortiz is going to sign with Affliction. The deal is reportedly a record deal for MMA. I’m disappointed. Ortiz will obviously draw eyes - he’s still perhaps the biggest celebrity in the sport. He’s just not that good any more. I was hoping that Affliction would try to continue to attract big audiences (100,000 PPV buys for their first card was a great start) by putting on top class shows, not by pitching gimmicks. Ortiz is supposedly fighting Babalu next. Who cares? He’s also reportedly circling a deal to fight Ken Shamrock again. The only thing better than one has-been is two, I guess. You could do better, Affliction. If you really want to make some noise start poaching the guys who are the stars of the UFC now, not the ones who were five years ago.

It struck me today that I hadn’t heard much about Jacoby Ellsbury recently. It wouldn’t be surprising that a typical rookie wasn’t making much news, but Ellsbury emerged in such a high profile way last year, and he started off so well, that the absence of news was remarkable. I took a quick look to see what I had missed. It hasn’t been pretty. His average isn’t terrible, with an average of .262. He’s just fallen off a cliff recently. His strikeouts have jumped, his walks have plummeted. He has no home runs in 28 days, one in 48 days, and he has just five home runs in 35 games. He’s leading the league in stolen bases, but the rest of his game is pretty terrible right now. I don’t really have a point other than to say that breaking into this league isn’t always as easy as it might seem.

Fedor Emelianenko is a bad, bad man. Anderson Silva was impressive in his own right, but nothing compared to Emelianenko. In just 36 seconds he knocked down the giant Tim Sylvia with a ferocious right uppercut, pummeled him with a flurry of punches, and got him to submit with a choke hold. That’s a lot to accomplish in just over half a minute, but Fedor was able to do it because he moved like the lightest of lightweights and hit like a truck. As I said on Saturday I was questioning whether he was fading a bit, but there is now no doubt in my mind that he is the finest heavyweight on the planet. The biggest problem now will be to find a worthy opponent, and I don’t believe Randy Couture fits that bill.

Mea culpa on the whole Padraig Harrington thing. I thought he was a lousy bet - the pressure of being defending champ, some problems with inconsistency, and the wrist injury totally robbed him of any value at 15/1 in my mind. That still may be true, but the fact remains that he won easily, and he did it by putting together the most impressive last six holes I have seen in any tournament in a long time, never mind one with such lousy conditions. If I could just once in my life hit an approach shot like he did on the 17th then I would quit playing golf on the spot, and I would be totally content.

A couple of good trades in the NFL the last two days. I define a good trade as one that helps both teams (unless I am a fan of one team and the steal a player). Jason Taylor is a good fit in Washington, he needed to get out of Miami, and the Dolphins got good value for him. Jeremy Shockey is a dream fit for the Saints, he was destined to be toxic in New York, and the Giants will get two potential contributors back in the form of draft picks. No losers in either case, and it just makes the league more interesting. It’ll also knock a point or two off of Saints’ futures, I think.

Fresh off a disqualification in an LPGA event this weekend, Michelle Wie has chosen to play in the PGA again in the Reno-Tahoe Open next week. Ridiculous. I promise never to mention it again.

As much as we might wish otherwise, Donald Trump won’t go away. The USFL, the WWE, and a few golf courses weren’t enough involvement in the sports world for him. Now he’s involved with MMA. He’s a financial and promotional partner with Affliction, a clothing company that fancies itself a fight promoter. The first major Affliction event, called Banned, takes place tonight in Anaheim. In typical Trump style the Baned card is big and impressive. Fedor Emelianenko is widely seen as the best heavyweight, and perhaps the best pound-for-pound fighter, in the world. The UFC has tried to land him for years, but they have failed. He’s headlining the Affliction card. Here’s a look at the card for tonight, with odds from Bodog.

Fedor Emelianenko (-350) vs. Tim Sylvia (+275) - Fedor was a menace in PRIDE, but he was done there at the end of 2006, and he has done little since. He has fought just twice, and neither match was even remotely a challenge. His first opponent was a seven foot giant without any skills to match his size, and his second was an undersized middleweight. He needs to prove that he is still as good as his legend, and Sylvia is a good opponent to do so. Sylvia is a two time UFC champ. His last fight in February was for the UFC title, but he lost to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. He’s not the best fighter out there, but he is a legitimate talent. Sylvia is a good striker, and he is hard to take down. Fedor is much better inside, and the fight is probably over if it gets to the ground, Sylvia could surprise, but Fedor seriously needs this win, so I expect him to be hungry and get the job done. Fedor by a submission.

Josh Barnett (-450) vs. Pedro Rizzo (+300) - In what will become a recurring trend on this card, Barnett is also a former UFC Heavyweight champ. His reign was in 2002, and it was very short. He beat Randy Couture, but failed a drug test and was stripped. Since then he has fought mostly in Japan. Rizzo bounced around the UFC and PRIDE before most recently fighting in Art of War. Barnett is the clear favorite, and the fight would hold little interest if not for a bit of history - Rizzo is the only guy ever to knock Barnett out. That was back in 2001. Rizzo is a slugger, and this will have to look suspiciously like a boxing match with just the odd kick if he wants to win. If Barnett is able to avoid that and get the fight to the ground, and I think he will, then he should make short work of it.

Andrei Arlovski (-225) vs. Ben Rothwell (+185) - Oh look, another former UFC Heavyweight champ. In an incestuous coincidence, Arlovski both won his title from and lost it to Tim Sylvia. Rothwell comes from the IFL where he was a legitimate Heavyweight, having strung together 13 straight victories. Arlovski is a good striker. In fact, he is training with Freddie Roach as will make his debut as a boxer in September on the undercard of the Casamayor-Marquez fight. He’s also a solid threat on the ground. Rothwell is an enigma. He has looked like a menace in the IFL, but it’s unclear what that actually means. He’s bigger and stronger than Arlovski, but this is a big step up in class. This is the first fight we have discussed that isn’t clear on either side. I would give Arlovski a slight edge, but a Rothwell victory wouldn’t surprise me. I’d probably pass the fight, but if I had to go one way I would probably look at Rothwell for a bit of value.

Matt Lindland (-500) vs. Fabio Negao (+350) - This is an odd fight. Or, more correctly, Lindland’s current story is an odd one. He’s a middleweight who has had a solid career while bouncing around among several organizations. The last year or two have been bizarre, though. First, he moved up in weight to face Fedor Emelianenko. He lost, but that was almost a given. That was in April of last year, and he hasn’t fought since. He hasn’t bee sitting around idle, though. As unlikely as it might seem, Lindland won the Republican primary in Oregon’s 52nd Congressional District, and will enter the election looking to hold the seat of a retiring Republican congresswoman. Negao is aggressive, but he hasn’t exactly differentiated himself through his career. Still, given all that Lindland has on his plate it would seem like an upset could be possible. Negao will have to get the fight to the ground and make sure that Negao isn’t able to get on top of him. I don’t know that I am willing to bet on Negao, but I certainly wouldn’t touch Lindland at this price. I’m not sure I’d vote for him, either, though if he asked me to my face I’d sure say I was going to.

It seems like there is a UFC card every weekend these days. This weekend is no exception, as UFC 86 comes to us live via pay-per-view from the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. This is definitely a card for the avid fans and not the casual ones. Several of the fights have the potential to be very interesting, but none have the wide, exciting appeal of recent main events. The main event here has the look of a bit of a mismatch, and the two fighters like each other too much for it to be truly riveting. There are a few intriguing betting possibilities on the card, though. Here’s a quick look, with odds from 5Dimes.

Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson (-265) vs. Forest Griffin (+225) - The two coaches from the past season of The Ultimate Fighter meet in the main event. I like Griffin, and I respect most aspects of his game. The problem is that Jackson is stronger and better in almost every one of those aspects. He’s a better striker, he’s better on the ground, and he’s generally more ferocious. Griffin will make it interesting, but I just can’t pick him. If Jackson has anything close to his normal day then this one will be over.

Pick: Jackson

Ricardo Almeida (-130) vs. Patrick Cote (+110) - This is i the one I am looking forward to. Almeida built quite a reputation in Japan as a submission fighter, but he retired in 2004 to run a jiu-jitsu school. Apparently the teaching life wasn’t for him, because he recently signed a six fight contract with the UFC. This is his second time back. The first was an absolute destruction of Rob Yundt. Cote is a respectable veteran who comes in riding a nice four bout win streak. Neither of these guys like spending much time in the ring, so they will both be enthusiastically looking for a way to end this one as soon as they can. Either guy could win, but Almeida provides some value at this price in my mind.

Pick: Almeida

Joe Stevenson (-210) vs. Gleison Tibau (+175) - Both guys need to bounce back from losses. Tibau had a ‘nice loss’ to Forest Griffin - he was outclassed, but he held his own very well. Stevenson was totally picked apart and exposed by B.J. Penn. On the assumption that he has pride and he wants to get rid of the taste of embarrassment of that last fight, I will pick Stevenson here. He is the more experienced fighter, and he has shown us more game over his career. He has to know that he needs a win here to keep himself in the elite title picture in his class. I think he will pull it off.

Pick: Stevenson

Tyson Griffin (-330) vs. Marcus Aurelio (+270) - Griffin faces a guy who sounds like he should have been Julius Caesar’s buddy. By the odds you would guess that this is one-sided. I don’t buy it. I have picked the favorites so far, so I’ll mix it up and take an underdog here. Griffin is probably a better fighter, and he is definitely much better known. Aurelio is new to the main event cards with the UFC, but he’s a better fighter than people who don’t know him would guess. I give Aurelio pretty much an even chance of pulling off the upset. That makes Aurelio an attractive value play. He’s no guaranteed winner, but his chances are way better than the price suggests.

Pick: Aurelio

The time slot on CBS that was once reserved for Mary Tyler Moore will be filled by mixed martial arts. Some people are viewing the prime time debut of EliteXC as the first sign of the apocalypse. I just look at it as another potential betting opportunity. Here’s a quick look at what is on tap for tonight (I know I am on three favorites in three matches, but there’s no avoiding it):

Gina Carano (-280) vs. Kaitlin Young (+220) - UFC fans will immediately notice something they aren’t used to here - these dudes are women. Carano is recognized as the top female MMA fighter in the world. If you watch the new version of American Gladiators (does anyone?) then you will recognize her as Crush. She’s undefeated in MMA over her two year career, and had a strong Muay Thai career before that. Young has only been a pro since October, but she has put together four nice wins since then. She lost last time out, but she’s not a pushover here. Still, Carano should win unless something goes wrong for her.

Robbie Lawler (-250) vs. Scott Smith (+200) - This fight is for Lawler’s middleweight title. It’s not the main event, but based on potential it certainly should be. Lawler is only 26, but he’s a veteran who has been around. Prior to being here he had seven fights in the UFC. He also coached on season six of The Ultimate Fighter. He had an excellent year last year, but has had injury problems to start this year. Smith also has experience with The Ultimate Fighter, but as a contestant in season four. He lost to Travis Lutter. He’s undefeated in EliteXC, but that’s not saying much since he has only fought once. This one should be fun to watch because both guys like to stand up, and both are tough to knock out. These guys should have a brawl, and the winner will be the last one standing. I expect Lawler will still have his belt at the end of the night.

Kimbo Slice (-600) vs. James Thompson (+400) - This is the main event, but purists would say that Slice, a street brawler, has no business topping a card like this. He used the internet effectively to build a following, though, so he has earned it. He’s had two pro fights after leaving the streets, and he has crushed both opponents in a combined 62 seconds. Of course, neither Bo Cantrell or Tank Abbott were at the top of their game when he faced them. Cantrell’s game never really had a top. Thompson is known as The Colossus. He’s been around for about five years. His most notable victory was over the legendary Dan Severn. That win led to his biggest embarrassment, though - he fought Aleksander Emelianenko and was knocked out in just 11 seconds. It’s that same glass jaw that Slice will be looking for, and I like his chances of finding it. I think that this one will end in a knockout, and I doubt it will make it out of the first round.

Tonight fans of the Mixed Martial Arts scene are being treated to a free show on Spike TV. The UFC is calling this “The Final Chapter�. In their third and final fight Ken Shamrock and Tito Ortiz will square off.

In their first bout in November of 2002, Ortiz stopped Shamrock after the third round. A rematch at UFC 61 in July saw Ortiz halt ‘The World’s Most Dangerous Man’ again, but the stoppage by referee Herb Dean was seen as premature by many fans, leading to Tuesday’s third bout, which will be aired live on Spike TV beginning at 8pm.

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