Archive for the ‘Horse Race Handicapping’ Category

Trying To Win The Breeders’ Cup Pick Six

Friday, November 6th, 2009

There are few things harder in gambling to win than a pick six. It costs a fortune to play it properly, and it all can be derailed too easily. I haven’t done any Breeders’ Cup content this year because I don’t get the sense that most people here care about the ponies as much as I do. For kicks now, though, I’m going to try to put together a winning pick six ticket. It’s play money, so I plan to spend a lot of it. I can afford to, though – the pick six paid more than $155,000 today, and should be much bigger tomorrow. Here we go:

(more…)

Seven Not-So-Bold Statements

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

1. The Toronto Maple Leafs are a truly awful team right now. Incomprehensibly bad. Like Oakland Raiders bad. They are theoretically rebuilding, but the signs of progress are slim right now. Their top two goalies are hurt, most of their offense is either hurt or benched, and coach Ron Wilson seems to have a tenuous grasp on the team. Incredibly ugly.

(more…)

Random Thoughts

Saturday, August 1st, 2009

If Brett Favre were to fall off the face of the earth I wouldn’t miss him at this point. You have to be a seriously egotistical jackass to string a team along like he did for as long as he did before deciding to pack it in. I’m making a vow now – I absolutely will not write a word about his next comeback attempt. Or the one after that.

(more…)

Not Making Life Easy For Themselves

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009

Two guys in the news right now are making their lives much harder than it needs to be because of strange decisions. The first is Dany Heatley, the Ottawa Senators’ sniper. Heatley hasn’t got along well with new Ottawa coach Cory Clouston, and he pouted his way through the second half of the season. His frustration was enough for him to demand a trade after the season ended. That’s a tough situation for the Sens – Heatley is talented, but he doesn’t always play well with others, and he is very expensive. The Kings, Sharks and Rangers all expressed interest, and it seemed like New York was taking the lead when they cleared salary cap space by trading away Scott Gomez to Montreal. Another team came through in the end, though – Edmonton. The Oilers had a deal in place, and they looked like they would add a new sniper for their new coaching staff to play with. Just one problem, though – Heatley has a no-trade clause, and he wasn’t willing to waive it to go to Edmonton, a team that doesn’t have a great reputation among current players. There is another level of difficulty – Heatley was due a $4 million bonus last night at midnight, and Ottawa was hoping to get rid of him before they had to cough that up. Now they have to pay it, and salary cap rules don’t allow them to recoup it from another team in a deal. The Sens therefore have to ask a bigger price for Heatley than they already were. Needless to say, Heatley isn’t a popular character in Ottawa.

(more…)

She’s Baaack!!!

Saturday, June 27th, 2009

Super filly Rachel Alexandra returns to action today for the first time since her impressive win in the Preakness. She’ll return at Belmont, the track she avoided by skipping the Belmont Stakes earlier this month. Though she has never won on the track, and her jockey Calvin Borel is both inexperienced and unsuccessful on the surface, she finds herself in a very good spot to win. She’s back against the fillies in the Mother Goose Stakes, a race run at a mile and an eighth that has attracted just four challengers for the big filly. Though it’s a small field, and Rachel Alexandra is the clear and deserving favorite, it’s still an interesting group that has gathered to face her. Here’s a look:

(more…)

Calvin, Calvin, Calvin, Calvin!!!

Sunday, June 7th, 2009

(For those of you not into horse racing, two things – this will be the last article for a couple of months on the topic, and what the heck is wrong with you?)

First, let me congratulate Summer Bird. That was one heck of a race for a horse that was quietly coming into his own. This is one crazy Triple Crown season – the Derby winner was 51-1, and the Belmont winner was 44/1 in the Derby. Not a great time to be a handicapper, but a great year to be a fan. I’m pretty thrilled with both of the Birds – when I went to the Derby for the first time in 1996, Grindstone was the winner, his son Birdstone won the Belmont in 2004, and now two grandsons are champions. That’s the kind of thing that makes a sentimentalist like me happy.

(more…)

It’s Belmont Day!!!

Saturday, June 6th, 2009

This is a bittersweet day in my mind. It’s a Triple Crown race, and I love those – that’s the sweet part. The bitterness comes from the fact that the Triple Crown is over for another year at about 6:30 tonight. That means that racing fades back into obscurity, and many of the great three year olds that I have grown to know and, for the most part, really like won’t be heard of much anymore. It happens every year, but I still never get used to this feeling. Before I get all sad and start crying, though, let’s take a look at how I see this race breaking down:

(more…)

No Rachel – Bird Rematch

Saturday, May 30th, 2009

The Belmont Stakes got a lot less interesting from the public perspective on Friday with the news that Rachel Alexandra will not be running in the race. Though I was beginning to hold out hope because the decision was taking longer than expected, this is pretty much exactly what I was expecting since about 12 seconds before the Belmont ended. Though the filly ran one heck of a race and deserves all of the credit in the world for what she accomplished, she was losing ground to the Derby champion, Mine That Bird, awfully quickly, and it was just a matter of moments before she would have been caught and passed. The Belmont is significantly longer than the Preakness (5/16 of a mile), and is further than any horse in the race is ever likely to be asked to run again in their lives. She clearly didn’t like the track at Pimlico on Preakness day, but the fact is that there are more reasons to believe that she could have been beaten in the Belmont than there were to think that she could have won the race. That’s not to say that she couldn’t win – she certainly could – just that there was a much greater chance that she could lose the Belmont than there was that she would lose the Preakness.

(more…)

Lots To Watch On Saturday

Saturday, May 23rd, 2009

This weekend doesn’t feature as many high profiles events as some have recently, but there is still more than enough to keep us entertained. Here are eight things that will keep my remote control busy today:

(more…)

Looking In On Kentucky’s Two Passions

Tuesday, May 19th, 2009

- Well, the seemingly inevitable has finally been confirmed – point guard phenom John Wall will spend his one year in college playing basketball at Kentucky. He was a virtual lock to go to Memphis before John Calipari left for Kentucky. Since then he flirted strongly with Duke, and he even reportedly gave a soft verbal commitment to Miami of all places, but he has landed in the place that totally makes sense for him. The dribble-drive offense is tailor made for a guy like Wall just as it was for Derrick Rose. In fact, Wall is frequently compared to Rose, though he is said to be even faster and more athletic. That’s scary for opposing teams to hear.

(more…)