Golden Arms: NFL Prop Betting – Which QB Will Have the Most Passing Yards?
By Richard Gardner, Bodog Sportsbook Manager
When you’re making a shortlist of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, the usual names always rattle right off the top – Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Occasionally a young upstart will work his way into the conversation – Tony Romo, Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers, perhaps – and someone will always suggest the grizzled old vet, Brett Favre.
No surprise, then, that all of the aforementioned names are in the mix for the Bodog Sportsbook NFL Player Prop: Most Passing Yards in the 2010 NFL Season. What is a surprise, though, is that all seven of the above names are looking to dethrone the defending titleholder, a guy that many overlook when it comes to these types of discussions.
Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub. It is Schaub – not Manning, not Brady, not Brees – that is the reigning NFL passing champ. He threw for a league-high 4770 yards in 2009, yet that performance hasn’t translated to the betting public wagering on Schaub for this season. Currently, Schaub is listed at 8/1 to win the 2010 passing yardage title, an underdog compared to the likes of Rogers (6/1), Brees (9/2), Manning (5/1) and Brady (7/1).
Why has the public been slow on Schaub? A few reasons. The first is that he’s hardly a household name. Prior to last year Schaub had never thrown for more than 3,043 yards and never started more than 11 games in a single season. He plays for a team, the Texans, that have never registered a winning season and are perennial also-rans in the AFC South, a division owned by Manning and the Colts. But Shaub does appear to be a QB on the rise (he was named the 2009 Pro Bowl MVP) and has gifted receivers around him, including all-world WR Andre Johnson. We’re expecting an increase in Schaub-related handle in the coming weeks and for that 8/1 number to drop accordingly.
If you’re wondering where the public is going, note that most of the wagers placed in recent weeks have been on Brees (9/2). Despite winning the Super Bowl a year ago, the Saints don’t have the typically nightmarish schedule that most champions have in defense of the title. Games against sad-sack defenses like St. Louis, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Arizona should do the New Orleans offense well; throw in the fact that the Saints play five of their first eight games at the Superdome and there’s a strong feeling that Brees will get off to a hot start…and not slow down.
The public has also been keen in laying down money on Manning (5/1) as well. The emergence of surprise rookie WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie last season have only given Manning more weapons to work with; throw in the fact that slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez and RB Donald Brown are at full health and – presto – you’ve got all the makings for another colossal Manning year.
None of this is to say that one of Brady, Rogers, Romo, Rivers or Favre could take home the passing crown. The high number of viable candidates says a lot about how good the quarterbacks are in the NFL, but also how intense the wagering will become as we get closer to the start of the season. You can bet on this NFL prop at Bodog Sportsbook, who is offering some great bonuses for all football bettors this season.