Texas Longhorns at #7 Baylor Bears
Ferrell Center – Waco, Texas
Saturday, January 28, 2012, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Baylor -8
Current Line: Baylor -8
Opening Total: 141 1/2
Current Total: 141
Opening Money Line: Baylor -380 / Texas +310
Current Money Line: Baylor -380 / Texas +310
The #7 Baylor Bears host rival Texas Saturday afternoon. The Bears are 18-2 overall and 5-2 in conference. Baylor is tied with Missouri, 2 games games behind 7-0 Kansas. The Bears snapped a 2 game losing streak Tuesday night with a 77-65 win at Oklahoma. The Texas Longhorns are 13-7 overall and 3-4 in conference. The Longhorns snapped a three game losing streak with a 62-55 win at home over Iowa St Tuesday night. Texas leads the 157-79, including 64-46 in Waco. Texas coach Rick Barnes is 26-4 against Baylor including 12-1 in Waco. Texas won both meetings last year.
Texas has losses to Oregon St, North Carolina St, North Carolina, Iowa St, Missouri, Kansas St, and Kansas. The Longhorns have wins over Rhode Island, UCLA, Temple, Rice, Oklahoma St, and Texas A&M.
Baylor is coached by Scott Drew. The Bears have losses to Kansas and Missouri. Baylor has wins over San Diego St, Northwestern, BYU, St. Mary’s, West Virginia, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St.
Texas is outscoring opponents 75-65 this season. The Longhorns are shooting 44.4% from the field, and 33.6% from 3 point range. Texas makes 72.7% of their free throws. The Longhorns average 37.8 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +4.1. Texas averages 13.3 assists, 13.1 turnovers, 3.9 blocks, and 6.9 steals a game. Texas opponents are shooting 39.2% from the field and 34.2% from 3 point range. The Longhorns force 13.9 turnovers a game.
Texas guard J’Covan Brown averages 19.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.3 steals a game to lead the team. Brown makes 37.5% from 3 point range. Sheldon McClellan averages 11.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1 steal a game. Myck Kabongo averages 9.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 5.5 assists to lead the team, and 1.1 steals a game. Jonathan Holmes averages 8.0 points, and 5.4 rebounds a game. Julien Lewis averages 8.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.1 steals a game. Clint Chapman averages 5.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks a game to lead the Longhorns in both categories.
Baylor is outscoring opponents 78-63 this season. The Bears are shooting 49.6% from the field, including 41.4% from 3 point range. Baylor is in the top 10 nationally in both categories. Baylor makes 73.7% from the free throw line. The Bears average 37 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +5. Baylor averages 16.3 assists, 15 turnovers, 8.8 steals, and 6.2 blocks a game. Baylor opponents are shooting 39.5% from the field, including 32.5% from 3 point range. The Bears force 16.1 turnovers a game on defense.
Baylor has 5 players averaging double digit scoring. Perry Jones III averages 14.2 points, 7.5 rebounds to lead the team, 1.1 assists, and 11.1 steals a game. Pierre Jackson averages 12.8 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1.9 steals a game to lead the team in the latter two categories. He is shooting 50.7% from 3 point range. Quincy Acy averages 12.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 2.4 blocks a game to lead the team. Quincy Miller averages 12.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.7 assists a game. Miller is shooting 41% from 3 point range. Brady Heslip averages 10 points, 1.3 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. He makes 47% of his three point shots.
Baylor is 7-6 against the spread and the total is 8-5 this season. Texas is 5-10 ATS and the total is 6-9 this season. Baylor is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 against Texas. Texas is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 games played in Waco though. Seven of the last ten games in the series have gone over, including 4 of the last 5 at Baylor. Texas is 8-3 ATS as an underdog, 3-7 after failing to cover, 2-5 in road games, 5-13 overall, 4-11 against teams with winning records, 2-6 in Big 12 games, 1-5 in road games against teams with winning home records, and 0-4 after a straight up win. The Bears are 3-7 ATS in Big 12 games, 5-12 at home, 2-5 as a favorite, and after a straight up win, 1-5 as a home favorite of 7-12.5 points, and at home against teams with losing records, and 1-8 after a cover.
Though Texas has dominated the series recently against Baylor, the Longhorns are in a rebuilding year and will struggle to get an NCAA bid. Baylor has too much talent and should win this handily at home.