Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns, Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Saturday, October 30, 2010, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports Net
Opening Line: Texas -8
Current Line: Texas -7
Opening Total: 52 1/2
Current Total: 53 1/2
Money Line: Texas -300 / Baylor +250
Baylor is 6-2 and is bowl eligible for the first time since 1994. Texas meanwhile is 4-3 after an embarrassing 28-21 loss at home against Iowa St last week. Baylor is ranked for the first time since 1993 and actually leads the Big 12 South Division by a half game over Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. The problem for Texas is stopping the run, and they are trying to avoid a 3 game losing streak at home. Texas has dominated the series against their in-state rivals. This is the 100th meeting between the teams and Texas leads 73-22-4 straight up including 43-8-2 at home. Texas has won 12 games in a row in the series straight up. The last time Baylor won was the year before Mack Brown took over as Longhorns coach in 1997. Baylor is 58-85 ATS as an underdog on the college football betting lines since 1992.
Baylor is led by dual threat quarterback Robert Griffin, who is putting up almost 2,800 combined passing and rushing yards, and has 24 total touchdowns and 4 touchdowns. He is third in the nation in all purpose yards gaining 344 yards a game. Griffin is msot dangerous with his arm as he has just over 2,300 yards passing and 18 touchdowns. His top three targets are Kendall Wright, Josh Gordan, and Terrance Williams. All have at least 25 catches and 3 touchdowns. The Bears average 196 yards a game on the ground led by Griffin and Jay Finley. Finley has 105 carries for 697 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Bears are gaining over 510 yards a game and scoring just under 35 points a game. On defense Baylor has a turnover margin of +4 and has forced 17 sacks. They give up 385 yards a game including 151 on the ground and 23 points a game. Penalties are a big problem for the Bears as they give up more than 70 yards a game.
Texas went into Lincoln 2 weeks ago and thoroughly dominated Nebraska 20-13. They came home and overlooked a poor Iowa St team and lost 28-21. Four turnovers doomed the Longhorns as did the fact that they gave up 199 rushing yards to the Cyclones. Iowa St was actually up 28-6 in the fourth quarter before Texas scored two late touchdowns to make the score appear closer than it was. The problem for the Longhorns this season has been an inconsistent offense. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert is throwing for 222 yards a game but has only 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions for the season. He also has 2 rushing td’s. The Longhorns rush for 136 yards a game led by Foswhitt Walker, Cody Johnson, and Tre’ Newton. Six Longhorn receivers have at least 13 catches. Turnovers have been a problem for the Longhorns as they are -9 in turnover margin, as have penalties as the Longhorns give up 60 yards a game. Gilbert has been sacked 10 times but Texas has forced 20 sacks of their own. Texas only gives up 258 yards a game including 120 against the passing game.
The oddsmakers are showing no respect to Baylor making them a 7 point underdog. Baylor’s two losses are to TCU and Texas Tech. The oddsmakers feel Texas will be angry after losing to Iowa St last week. If Baylor ever has a chance to break their losing streak against Texas this will be the year it happens. It would be a statement win for a program on the rise. Texas must stop the run better than they did against Iowa St and UCLA or it will be another embarrassing loss for the Longhorns.
If you are wagering on the Saturday card be sure to check out the college football spread picks we have lined up for the weekend. One of which is our 20 unit PAC TEN conference Game of the Year. Dont miss these easy winners.