Arizona Diamondbacks (57-48) AT L.A. Dodgers (47-57)
July 29, 2011 at 10:10 PM EST
Opening Line: ARI -110, LA +100
Current Line: ARI -110, LA +100
Opening Total: 7
Current Total: 7
SP: ARI- Josh Collmenter, LA- Ted Lilly
Ted Lilly hasn’t been the greatest this season. With an ERA north of 5.00, he’ll be facing a hot Diamondbacks team whose best player, Justin Upton, is on an even hotter streak. Upton is batting .545 (18 of 33) with 5 HRs and 15 RBIs, over his last 9 game hitting streak. His .303 average is the best on the team, and he’s clobbered 20 home runs and 61 RBIs.
Fortunately for Lilly, he has been very successful against Upton. The slugger has batted just .045 (1 of 22) against the Dodgers and is 2 of 16 (.125) against Lilly, with 6 of the 14 outs having been strikeouts.
Lilly lost to the Diamondbacks on July 17th, then gave up 6 runs in 5 innings in a 7-6 victory over the Nationals. In his last 7 outings, he is 1-5 with a 7.47 ERA.
The Diamondbacks sit 4 games behind the NL West leading Giants and will take on the Giants after this series. Building momentum will prove to be crucial, as the series will go a long way towards determining who is playing in October.
Diamondbacks’ skipper Kirk Gibson said he believes his team is “good at (focusing on the) game at hand…They know what’s going on.”
Josh Commenter will attempt to win his third straight start. Over a span between June 9th and July 6th, he had gone 0-4 with a 5.08 ERA, while receiving only 3 runs of support. With the offense picking back up, it has made life easier on the rookie. He has given up jsut 3 runs and 9 hits in his last 15 innings, and he’s received 15 runs of support over that span.
“It’s big anytime you have a lead when you’re a pitcher, especially early on,” Collmenter said. “It gives you a little cushion out there, and lets you ease into it and get more comfortable on the mound – knowing you don’t have to be quite as perfect.”
Collmenter has only one career start against the Diamondbacks, a game in which he gave up only 2 hits in 6 innings as the Diamondbacks eeked out a 1-0 victory, back on May 14th.
Matt Kemp has been struggling for the Dodgers. He hasn’t homered in 10 games, but still remains 2nd in the NL in home runs with 24. In addition, he has 75 RBIs to go with his .312 average. The Dodgers need Kemp to pick it back up tonight.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Diamondbacks’ last 6 games and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games. The total has also gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 on the road while they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against the Dodgers. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against L.A. and it has also gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 on the road in L.A. The Diamondbacks are 7-18 SU in their last 25 games on the road against the Dodgers.
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Dodgers’ last 20 games and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games. The total has also gone UNDER in 11 of their last 15 at home, while they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 home games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 against Arizona. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Dodgers’ last 5 games at home against the Diamondbacks, while they are 18-7 SU in their last 25 home games against Arizona.
The Diamondbacks have been hot and have won 4 of their last 5, including 2 of 3 against the Padres on the first leg of this road trip. With nearly even odds, I like the Diamondbacks to take this one. The total does not offer a lot of value with the last two Diamondback games having matched the total of 7.