Time: 12:30 PM EST, Saturday
Spread: UNC -7.5
M/L: UNC -300, NC ST +250
After shocking the Florida State Seminoles three weeks ago on October 6th, the NC State Wolfpakc had a bye week and then came back to beat Maryland 20-18 last week. Now, they’ll enter this contest against in-state rival North Carolina as underdogs according to college football oddsmakers.
It’s fitting for an NC State team that just can’t manage to be taken as seriously as they might have, if not for the loss to the Miami Hurricanes. The Wolfpack has dispatched of UConn, South Alabama, Citadel, and the aforementioned Seminoles and Terrapins squads. This game, which will be televised on ESPN3, will feature a Wolfpack pass offense that has ranked 29th in the nation with 284.0 yards per game. Their rush has been ineffective, but QB Mike Glennon is the key to the team’s success.
Glennon has passed for nearly 2,000 yards on the season and has 14 TDs. His 58.3 percent completion ratio has been achieved on 278 passes for 7.15 yards per attempt. He has been sacked 17 times on the year, though, mitigating his success and QB rating of 129.9. He’s struggled in October this season, with a 52 percent ratio and QB rating of 109.6.
Glennon also hasn’t had much success rushing the ball, and has been negative in yardage five times. He did manage to score two rushing TDs against Citadel, though.
UNC has been very impressive this season, but suffered a narrow loss to the shockingly good Duke Blue Devils. Prior to the defeat, they and won four consecutive games, with victories over East Carolina, Idaho, Virginia Tech, and Miami (FL). The Tar Heels have fared well against all their opponents, since both their losses were narrow ones. They hung tough with then-No. 19 Louisville, and lost by just a point to Wake Forest. They’ve twice shut out opponents, with 62-0 and 66-0 poundings of Elon and Idaho, respectively.
The Tar Heels get it done on both the ground and in the air…Their offense ranks 21st in the nation, producing 39 points per game, while their defense ranks 24th, holding opponents to 19.3 points per game. They held a very good Hurricanes offense led by Stephen Morris to just 14 points (though they did surrender 235 passing yards).
The defense also did keep Louisville and Teddy Bridgewater in relative check, surrendering 462 yards to a very high powered Louisville squad. It’s hard to champion giving up 35 points as a defensive victory, but if the Tar Heels can put up that kind of production themselves and hold teams far inferior to Louisville to less points, they win. Simple. College football oddsmakers agree that the UNC defense will be enough to defeat the Wolfpack, and set the line 7.5 points in favor of the Tar Heels.
NC STATE BETTING TRENDS
Wolfpack are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS loss, 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 after accumulating 280+ yards previous game, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 200+ yards rushing, 5-2-1 ATS vs teams with winning records, 0-3-1 in their lat 4 road games vs teams with winning home records, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
UNC BETTING TRENDS
Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs teams with winning road records. 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following an SU loss, 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 200 rushing yards previous game, 2-5 ATS vs teams with winning records, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 in OCT.
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