4th And Final Game: Minnesota Twins At Texas Rangers Betting Preview

Minnesota Twins (49-55) AT Texas Rangers (59-46)
July 28, 2011 at 8:05 PM EST
Opening Line:  TEX -148, MIN +143
Current Line:  TEX -154, MIN +144
Opening Total:  9.5
Current Total:  9.5

SP:  MIN- Scott Baker, Texas- Matt Harrison

Matt Harrison has not been historically all that good against the Twins.

The Twins are making waves finally, and sending Scott Baker to the mound may only further that.  He has won four straight decisions and is 8-5 on the year with a 2.88 ERA.  In his five starts against the Rangers, he is 4-0 with a 3.06 ERA  dating back to the beginning of 2009.  In his first assignment since an elbow strain, on Saturday, he threw 5 innings of 3 hit ball, and only threw 82 pitches, a reasonable amount for his first game back.  He was pleased, saying that “it was exactly what (he) wanted to happen.”

The Twins have won the last two, but lost the opener badly, 20 to 6, on July 25th.  Last night, they fell 7-2 as both Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer hit home runs (it was Mauer’s first of the season), and had multiple hit games, in addition to Jason Kubel going 3 of 5 (though his two unsucessful at bats were strikeouts).  Mauer is now hitting .377 with 11 RBIs over the last 11 games.

Brian Duensing picked up the win for the Twins after throwing 6.2 innings of 7 hit ball, and striking out 6.  His season ERA improved to 4.35 and he only walked one, as well.  Colby Lewis gave up 4 runs in 6.2 IP and two of the 8 hits he allowed were home runs.

Texas has won Matt Harrison’s last four starts.  He’s improved to 8-7 with a 3.05 ERA, and was 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA over those last four starts.  He gave up 4 runs in 6.2 IP in a 5-4 win over the Blue Jays on Saturday, but he did not factor in the decision.

In his last two starts against the Twins, he is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA.  On June 12th, he gave up 2 runs over 6 innings in a Twins loss.

Some betting trends:

The Twins are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on ther road and the total has gone OVER In 7 of the Twins’ last 9 games against the Texas Rangers.  The Twins are 9-2 SU in their last 11 against the Texas Rangers.

The Texas Rangers are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games and the total has gone OVER In 12 of the Rangers’ last 18 games at home.  The Rangers are 10-3 SU in their last 13 home games and the total has gone OVER In 7 of the Rangers’ last 9 games against the Twins.  The Rangers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games against the Twins.

The high scoring nature of this series lends well to an ‘over’ total.  The teams have combined for 52 runs over 3 games, though the 20-6 Texas win on the opener skews that a bit.  Last night the teams combined for 9 runs and I don’t think Matt Harrison is going to shut the Twins down by any stretch of the imagination.

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