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This is a very interesting time when it comes to NFL win totals betting. They have been posted for a while now, so the initial action has bet out any obvious errors, but the public hasn’t yet paid a lot of attention to them. That likely means that the futures are somewhat more accurate now than they will be before the fans jump on the public teams. Because of that, looking at the odds right now shows us some very interesting trends and opinions. Based on the line movement and the prices available there are hints of some strong and interesting opinions held by those who have made bets so far. Here are 11 win totals that have seemed to have one-sided action so far. In each case the one-sided action can be a clue that the total is likely to change as the season nears, and it gives us something to think about when it comes to the teams (odds are form Bodog):
Continue reading “NFL Regular Season Win Totals Betting: A Look at the Early Moves”
NFL teams are absolutely obsessed with the defensive line. Finding players who can consistently provide pass rushing pressure is very hard to do, but teams use a lot of draft picks and spend millions on free agents in an attempt to do so. A team that can pressure the quarterback gets all sorts of attention form the public and the media. One that can stuff the run is a bit more under the radar, but no less valued by team management. The best way for a defensive front to provide apply pressure is a topic of much debate and contention, and there are about as many advocates of 3-4 schemes as those that back a 4-3.
Continue reading “NFL Handicapping: Defensive Fronts Covering Point Spreads”
The weekly NFL recap for this week saw 4 major stories, all of which could have an impact on handicapping this years NFL season. With week 1 NFL games a little over 2 months away it is important to keep up to date with this news and at it to your betting arsenal.
Teams are in the process of preparing for training camp and rosters are shaping up. Nothing is set in stone yet, and injuries in camp can still change the look of a team for next season. However, we now have a good idea of what the teams will look like. On top of that, it is never too early to look at the Super Bowl futures, as there is some value to be found for the early bird.
I was fully intending to write about baseball tonight, but two things changed that – the opening night game between the Yankees and the Red Sox was a total dud with abysmal pitching on both sides, and the Eagles lost their minds. There really is only one story tonight, and it’s a good one.
I’m going to do a much more comprehensive review of what we learned from the NFL today when I have more time tomorrow. For now, though, I just want to touch on five different stats. Each of them is almost impossible to believe, but they all happened. Not surprisingly, three of them came from the same game:
1. I still have long term concerns about how good the Favre experiment will look in December, but one thing seems certain now – this team is only undefeated because they signed him. Or at least that seems reasonable. It’s hard to imagine that Rosenfels or Jackson would have been able to lead that comeback in the same way, or could have thrown that pass to win as time expired. I don’t see this team doing any real damage in the playoffs. I don’t even now for sure what the Vikings really have to offer, and likely won’t know until they play Baltimore in week six.
Continue reading “Ten Things I Learned From The NFL This Weekend”
Ravens Vs. Miami
Run, Ravens, run: All of the Baltimore starting pass catchers are listed as “questionable.” Wide receiver Clayton has a bad knee, tight end Todd Heap’s having back trouble and wideout Derrick Mason’s shoulder is injured. Will the three starters play? Most likely, yes. But their range, durability and output will probably be reduced. Rookie QB Joe Flacco will be handing the ball off a lot to running backs Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee. The best thing that the Ravens’ offense can do is play cleanly, allowing the team’s defense to play its game and control Miami.
Philly – DeSean Jackson is hurt – hamstring – and hasn’t been on the field yet. What a shock. I long ago appointed myself the president of the anti-fan club for Jackson. Don’t get me wrong – he’s a freakish talent and he did amazing things with the ball at Cal. I just don’t think that a guy that small and, apparently, that fragile, has a long future in the NFL. I can’t put my finger on what exactly turns me off so much about the guy, but if I had to make a bet on the guy it would definitely be as a flop. He’s certainly not the answer that McNabb is looking for. From what I have read about the Eagles’ camp, though, their receiving answer might already be on the roster. Jason Avant is a talented possession type receiver who is heading into his third year. He hasn’t done much statistically so far, but he has shown progress. He’s reportedly had a spectacular camp so far – he’s fit, hungry, and he’s catching absolutely everything. On top of it all, he’s a Michigan guy, so you know he’s good.
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