There are a lot of different ways a team can win the NCAA Tournament. Different winners have had stars at different positions, different strengths and weaknesses, and have accomplished different things during the regular season. There are some things, though, that virtually all champions have in common – traits that help (more…)
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Author: Maddux Sports
Conference tournaments are a unique handicapping challenge in college basketball. They are games like any other, yet there are things that make them different as well – a compact schedule, high pressure, and so on. As a foundation you need to handicap these games just like you would any other game. (more…)
Betting on conference tournaments in college basketball is something I always look forward to – it’s like an appetizer for the glorious main course that is the NCAA tournament. It’s also a good time to find some nice value and pad the bankroll for the the big show that’s about to (more…)
For most of the 100 college basketball teams that are playing in the NCAA Tournament and the NIT it is a very exciting time. They have worked hard all season, have had some decent results, and have been rewarded for their work with a spot in the postseason and a chance (more…)
Betting on the championship game of the NCAA Tournament is different than betting on any other college basketball game played throughout the year. In some ways it’s just another basketball game, but it is really so much more than that. Players treat it differently, bettors treat it differently, and so successful (more…)
College basketball mostly comes to an end in March, but not before a whole lot of games are played. There is the NCAA Tournament – which every sports fan in the country pays attention to. Then there is the NIT, which used to be great and is now largely ignored by (more…)
There is nothing I love more than the NCAA Tournament. It’s perfect in almost every way. One of the many ways it shines is in the opportunities it provides for college basketball handicappers. Because of the huge amount of public attention on the tournament there is a massive amount of value (more…)
The preseason in the NBA isn’t particularly useful in my eyes. Basketball teams don’t really care about the games, so coaches are often more interested in just getting their team to the regular season as healthy and ready as they can. Winning the games is secondary (or worse). There are a (more…)
In the NBA we spend a lot of time focusing on coaching changes and the impact they are going to have on the team and therefore on how we bet the team. That makes sense – especially because coaching changes are so frequent in the league. When a General Manager is (more…)
The demise of the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2011 NBA playoffs is one of the most interesting case studies the NBA has provided in years. If you need a refresher, they entered the playoffs as the two-time defending champions, but things did not go well. They had far more trouble (more…)
If you are a person who likes to bet on the NBA then you have some time to kill before the action gets rolling again. Most of you will likely use the time to do the obvious – bet on football. While that’s always a good idea, this is also a (more…)
By the time the All-Star break rolls around in the NBA there are at least eight or ten teams most years that clearly and obviously have no chance of making the playoffs – or even coming close. Their seasons might essentially be over, but that doesn’t mean that we can or (more…)
The NBA preseason is underway. There are ways to bet on the preseason if you are determined to do so, but I have never seen much value in betting on any preseason – too many variables that you have to guess about. That doesn’t mean that the preseason isn’t useful, though. (more…)
We are in the midst of the NBA preseason. It’s not a particularly exciting time – for fans or for most players. There is one very good reason to be interested in the preseason, though – you can bet on it. Nothing you can bet on can be too bad, can (more…)
I am writing this the day after Carmelo Anthony was traded to the Knicks in a deal that involved half the roster of both teams and the Nuggets – and some of the Timberwolves as well – so the evaluation of the immediate impact of a NBA trade is obviously very (more…)
The high seeds in the NBA playoffs are very dominant. For example, a number one seed has lost to a number eight just three times in NBA history. A sixth seed, the 1995 Houston Rockets, are the lowest seed ever to win it all. Generally there are a few teams each (more…)
NBA second half betting offers you a great tool to invest your money. There are several benefits to betting on the second half of an NBA game. Here, we will explain what the benefits are and how you might be able to come out with a chance to middle with your (more…)
Absolutely anything can happen in sports. Any bettor who has ever taken an outcome for granted knows how true that is. In the first round of the NBA playoffs, though, there are some teams that are as close to unbeatable as is possible in sports. Not every top seed is sure (more…)
I don’t really believe in momentum. NBA teams definitely can win multiple games, and it seems that wins can lead to more wins, but pointing at momentum as the cause for that is lazy. There are all sorts of factors that can lead to a winning streak – increased confidence, good (more…)
The NBA playoffs have arrived. Each year they bring two glorious months of brilliantly intense basketball action to bettors around the world. The NBA playoffs are great to bet on. They are, though, quite different from the regular season in a lot of ways, and quite challenging if you aren’t prepared (more…)
When the NBA Playoffs get underway a slew of public money comes into sports betting marketplace. Casual bettors that haven’t placed a wager all season long view playoff betting as a chance to enhance their NBA playoff experience. While almost all know how the NBA point spread works, we get a (more…)
A couple of times in the last two weeks I have had people ask me if you are better off betting NBA sides or totals. It’s an interesting question, so let’s take a look at it.
The reason why this question gets asked more in the NBA than in any question is (more…)
While most sports bettors concentrate on the full game lines in NBA betting, first half lines might offer exceptional value for the smart handicapper. Your basic lines and totals are set for just the first half of the game and the outcome of the wagers will be decided after 24 minutes (more…)
Any sports bettor will tell you wagering on the NBA Finals is tough. Both teams are obviously in top form after having beaten some good teams to get to where they are. The teams aren’t particularly familiar with each other because the schedule limits their interaction during the regular season. Both (more…)
If you’re just a casual sports bettor looking to have some fun then there is likely no better way to lose your money quickly than by betting on the NBA. That’s partly because the league is just generally hard to bet on, and partly because casual bettors are inclined to make (more…)
The gap between the really good teams and the really bad ones is probably bigger in the NBA than in any other professional league. The haves are so far from the have nots right now, it’s like they are playing different sports. When teams like that meet on the court the (more…)
Winning and losing streaks happen to teams in all sports. It seems, though, that these streaks are more common and longer lasting in the NBA than in other major North American sports. Here’s a look at why that is and how to deal with it:
Streaks are real in the NBA – (more…)
In the later rounds of the NBA playoffs it often seems as if the media has a clear bias – a strong lean towards one team in a series and against the other. If that media bias is strong, consistent and logical at least on the surface then it could have (more…)
In the 2010-11 NBA season the Cleveland Cavaliers lost 26 games in a row. The longest losing streak in the history of the NBA – a streak that looked like it may never end. While we had never seen a streak this long we often see extended periods of futility from (more…)
It seems like every year in the NBA playoffs there are one or two games that turn into epic overtime battles – three or four periods of heart stopping thrill rides. Since overtime is so rare in the NBA, and so different than it is in other sports, it provides a (more…)
When there are about 10 games left in the NBA season things change for the serious contenders for the NBA Championship. I’m not talking about teams that are going to make the playoffs and maybe win a round or two. I mean the teams that stand a very solid chance of (more…)
There are two types of teams that have been eliminated from NBA playoff contention before the season ends – those that are still playing hard and being competitive, and those that are just mailing it in and waiting for the end of the season to put them out of their misery. (more…)
You would think that professional sports teams in major leagues like the NBA wouldn’t mind traveling at all. After all, when they are away from home they travel on very comfortable charter planes, at great food, stay in nice hotels, and have little to focus on but getting ready for their (more…)
In the NBA playoffs – especially but certainly not exclusively in the first round – we often see one-sided games. These are games in which one side looks like they forgot to show up for the game and they lose by a wide margin. They are incredibly dull games, and they (more…)
While NBA handicapping is a very broad and detailed subject, today we will take a slice out of our playbook and give you some insight from a professional sports betting on how to handicap NBA games involving injured players.
Injuries are part of sports and they will happen to everyone at some (more…)
As the regular season draws close to the end in any sport there are inevitably teams that have to play several games after knowing that they have no chance of making the playoffs. When two of these no-hope teams meet each other we have on of the tougher situations in sports (more…)
When the NBA season ends a lot of basketball bettors just take a breath and then move on to their next sport to bet on. You are missing a big opportunity, though, if you don’t take a short time to look back at the past basketball season to see how it (more…)
We are early in the NBA season, but we have seen enough games play that teams are starting to separate themselves in terms of their records. The challenge for sports handicappers is to determine whether teams with bad records right now are just struggling and having some bad luck, or if (more…)
RPI – an acronym that gets thrown around a lot in the world of college basketball. Like a lot of things in sports, though, a lot of people talk about it without really understanding what it is, why it matters, the faults it has, and how it can be useful by (more…)
For college basketball bettors there’s something to consider when it comes to home court advantage. Have you ever watched a Duke NCAA basketball game? Or a game of the Maryland Terps? Maybe the Kansas Jayhawks? If you have attended one of these teams’ arenas, you know what I’m talking about. From loud chants to (more…)
When it comes to betting on college basketball, smart bettors know that coaches really matter. College players are young and inexperienced, so the guidance of a coach can make the difference between a bad team and a great one. Coaching is obviously important in every sport, but the impact of a (more…)
Anyone who bets on college basketball regularly knows that it is not at all uncommon to see big spreads – double digit monsters. These lines are always tough to handicap because the favorite can win the game easily and still not come close to covering the spread. You really have to (more…)
Tempo – a simple term and a simple concept that provide quick and valuable insight into what happened in past college basketball games, and what is likely to happen in future ones. It’s impossible to watch every NCAA hoop game played – or even a significant percentage of them. By using (more…)
Upsets are a big part of college basketball – one of the things that makes the sport so great. Teams at the top of the rankings can look so talented and potent that they are seemingly unbeatable, but then they can fall to a totally unexpected foe. Predicting those upsets can (more…)
We see it season after college basket season. A NCAA hoop team comes out of the gate blazing then goes into a freefall. In 2010 Syracuse started the season 18-0 and were one of the last undefeated teams standing. A loss to Pitt was followed by one to Villanova, and their confidence was (more…)
Near the end of January in 2011 the Big Ten in college basketball gave us a very exciting and very educational matchup between Purdue and Ohio State. Purdue, ranked 12th in the country at the time, was a talented basketball team who was proving they were a force in the national picture. Ohio (more…)
In NCAA basketball, everybody loves an upset – the kind when a scary Goliath is knocked down to size by the most unlikely of Davids. It’s exciting to watch, and it’s especially exciting because we often don’t know they are going to happen until they have happened. These upsets are particularly (more…)
I love college basketball – can’t get enough of it. That’s part of why I find this time of year so interesting – teams are practicing and getting ready for the season, but there is so much else going on in sports that few people notice. The first few weeks of (more…)
With the arrival of the college basketball season handicappers who are focusing on the sport are left with an interesting debate – should they be a generalist or a specialist. Generalists look for the most attractive games played on a given day, while specialists focus their attention on one conference and (more…)
Conference play starts right away in college basketball, and will take us right into the NCAA tournament. There are some key differences that sports bettors need to understand and adapt to between non-conference play and conference play if they want to have a profitable winter. Here are seven ways that college basketball (more…)
By the time we get halfway through the college basketball season we are able to have a pretty strong sense of what teams have to offer bettors. More significantly, we’ve already seen teams go through changes. Some college hoop teams start out very strong and then falter as the season progresses (more…)
When most college basketball bettors – certainly casual ones – are looking at the games on offer on a given day looking for the most attractive they are drawn to the ones with the biggest names involved. Games between ranked teams always draw the most money, followed by those with one (more…)
The closer we get to NCAA Tournament time, the more value there is for college basketball bettors in being able to spot good teams that are flying under the radar. When March Madness rolls around there are always teams that the betting public and the mainstream media don’t see coming – (more…)
Betting on college basketball is great for a whole lot of reasons. One of the biggest reasons is how varied it can be – every day is different. Much more than any of the other major sports college basketball is so varied. That’s what happens when you have more than 300 (more…)
Turnover percentage and defense field goal percentage are keys in college basketball point spread betting. Turn on SportsCenter on any given night during the NCAA college basketball season, and you will most likely find a buzzer-beating three or a monster dunk in the day’s Top-10 plays. On the other hand you (more…)
Because there are so many NCAA basketball teams playing in so many different leagues college basketball can be really intimidating for a lot of bettors. To combat that problem a lot of public bettors rely heavily on public and media perception of teams – basing their opinions on what they read and (more…)
As we get closer and closer to the start of the college basketball season every handicapper who loves the sport is looking for ways to get an edge out of the gate. One of the best ways to do that is to attempt to spot teams that could be significantly better (more…)
For handicappers it can be a real challenge to assess situations when a key player is returning to action after a long absence. Whether it’s in the postseason or the regular season handicappers need to be sure they can quickly get a sense of what is likely to happen so that (more…)
The closer the calendar gets to March the more intense the Bubble Watch can be in college basketball. As the regular NCAA basketball season nears the end there are several teams out there that are playing for their tournament lives. There are inevitably more teams that are worthy of playing in (more…)
We are far enough into the college basketball season that some real surprises have started to emerge. Every year there are a couple of teams that weren’t even ranked in the preseason polls – and perhaps didn’t even get votes in the poll – that vault into the rankings or even (more…)
There are more neutral site games played in college basketball than in any other sport. There are actually more played in college basketball than all other sports combined. That means that neutral site games have to be on the mind of college basketball handicappers to a much higher degree than they (more…)
Each year a few college basketball teams get a very nice gift right before Christmas. That’s when the academic term ends, so it’s also when basketball players who weren’t eligible in the first semester can join the team and start playing. There are usually a few intriguing, valuable players that get (more…)
In NCAA basektball, Gonzaga is looking mortal these days, but for many years they were so much better than every basketball team in their conference that it just wasn’t fair. Before Butler made history by going all the way to the championship game in 2010 they have rolled to a perfect (more…)
In college basketsball, the sports media loves to overreact to situations. It seems like it is their favorite thing to do. A NCAA hoop team wins a couple of games in a row in impressive fashion and they have already been awarded the title. Lose a couple and they might as (more…)
When February rolls around there is still a lot of college basketball left to play and bet on before the postseason starts. For dozens of NCAA teams, though, all they are doing is putting in time. Their records are lousy, there are no post-season prospects, and it’s probably getting harder and harder (more…)
There are so many college basketball teams and conferences out there that we can’t possibly keep track of them all. Some NCAA conferences are so obscure that the only time we hear about them each year is when the winner of the conference loses to a number one seed by 40. (more…)
There is still a whole lot of college basketball left to play this year. It would be dangerous to assume that we really know how good or bad teams really are – or are going to be by the end of the year. We can’t help but be surprised by some (more…)
Before we know it the college basketball season will be underway. Early in the season the sport doesn’t get a whole lot of betting attention. The problem is that it just doesn’t get much attention because there is so much else going on – the NFL and college football are getting (more…)
A tricky part about gambling on college basketball conference games is the rematch. Usually in a NCAA conference two teams will play each other twice, both home and away. Sometimes this can fool the new bettor into simply looking at the last matchup between the two teams when making their decision on (more…)
One of the best things about handicapping sports and especially college basketball, is that there is always more to learn and different ways to think about things. Unless you are getting every game right you can always do better – pick more winners and win more money. there are a lot of (more…)
When a lot of people talk about college basketball – especially outside of the handful of elite, top level programs – they talk a lot about the significance of seniors in the lineup. The theory is that seniors are more experienced, they provide better leadership, and teams are generally better when (more…)
One of the concepts we hear a lot about when handicapping college basketball is the importance of returning starters. The basic theory is simple – the more returning starters a team has, the more comfortable they are going to be with the demands of their coach and the speed of college (more…)
With the college basketball season about to start a lot of sports bettors are thinking about season long props – like who will win the national championship. Originally, my plan was to write an article about what to do and what not to do when it comes to making prop bets. To (more…)
There are a lot of problems with polls – especially in college football. In college basketball, though, the polls are an under-appreciated means of drawing insights about teams and leagues. You aren’t going to learn a lot from just looking at the poll at face value, but some simple analysis of (more…)
The general betting public for college basketball has plenty of biases – favorites and the over, for example. Oddsmakers are fully aware of those biases, and they adjust the lines accordingly to maximize their chances at profit. That means that successful bettors are also aware of those biases, and they factor (more…)
We don’t see a lot of midseason coaching changes in college basketball. Sometimes, though, a situation is bad enough that teams just have to make a change – just like Wyoming did in early February of 2011. When those changes happen they can create a really powerful opportunity for sports bettors. (more…)
Guys like Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, and Derick Rose have done college basketball bettors a disservice. Those guys have shown what is possible when a ridiculously talented young player is given a leadership role on a team. They were very successful in their one year in college – especially Anthony – (more…)
Home court advantage isn’t really a difficult concept in basketball. Teams are more comfortable when they play at home in front of their home crowd and sleep in their own beds, so they play better at home than they do on the road in most cases. Everyone understands that. When it (more…)
When you are thinking about handicapping the college basketball season what you are really doing is handicapping seven different, distinct mini-seasons. Each one is unique because the motivations and levels of preparedness of teams are different in each case, and that changes how successful bettors approach each segment of the season. (more…)
Not long after the hoop nets are cut down and the NCAA Championship is over for the year you can bet on who you think is going to win the next edition. It’s always intriguing to see what the futures have to say about the college basketball teams and their chances (more…)
In college Basketball the best time to place bets during the season is the first week in January when conference play begins. The reason being is that usually non-conference games for teams in the larger conference are basically warm-up games for their upcoming season. There are some exceptions to this rule, (more…)
March is obviously all about the tournament when it comes to college basketball. Smart bettors know, though, that March is also when the coaching carousel starts to spin at full force. In most cases it’s hard to get too excited about coaching changes when they happen – the team needed to (more…)
College basketball is becoming one of the most popular sports to bet on due to the fact of the amount of games that are available to place bets on. For a five month span from November to March there is a plethora of games for which to bet every night. For (more…)
People who spend a lot of time handicapping college basketball are obviously very sophisticated in their approach. People who only do it casually or are just starting out typically look at a few predictable factors – the records of the teams, the conferences they play in, the performance of the high (more…)
A growing trend in sports betting is the betting on the second half of a college basketball game. However, this bet is not for everyone as it is a bet that has to be made at the spur of the moment. You have until the end of the first half until (more…)
Some made for TV events work better than others. One of the best, from both a spectator and a betting perspective, is ESPN’s BracketBuster. The annual college basketball event which comes around late in February every year creates some real drama, and some real value.
Some background if you aren’t familiar with (more…)
There are a variety of factors that come into play when betting on NCAA college basketball. Besides your basic statistics, home-court advantage, and scheduling, there is another aspect that can influence the outcome of a game significantly – the revenge factor. When you look at the latest odds to figure out (more…)
Home field advantage is a big factor for football handicappers to consider in the NFL. In the playoffs, though, home field advantage can be even more significant. The reason is that the impact of the advantage can vary widely in the playoffs. If the fan base is very fired up and (more…)
In the divisional round and the conference championship round of the NFL playoffs we would expect the home team to be favored. They have worked hard to earn the right to host their playoff games, and they are playing in a building that has obviously been good to them. At times, (more…)
In the NFL playoffs the top seeded team in each conference holds a special place in the eyes of casual bettors. To earn that top seed they have had a very good season, and that means that the public is going to regard them highly, and is quite likely to bet (more…)
Betting on the Pro Bowl isn’t the most popular thing in the NFL. There are lots of people that do it though. Lots of those people make big mistakes when they do it, and those mistakes limit their chances of making a long term profit on the game. Here are six (more…)
It’s hard for most football fans to get too excited about the Pro Bowl game, and harder still for a lot of bettors to really seriously pay attention. Many people would argue that the game doesn’t need to be played – that making the Pro Bowl should just be a ceremonial (more…)
Super Bowl media day has evolved into a day of barely contained insanity. There was a time when it was about serious journalists meeting with focused NFL players to ask insightful questions in a controlled setting. Now it’s full of nutcases who know nothing about football wearing costumes and trying to (more…)
One of the big challenges with NBA handicapping is trying to find a winner in a game with a small point spread when both NBA teams are elite and well matched. With NBA basketball odds, It’s easy to get a sense of how a game will turn out when there is a (more…)
Early in the NBA season one of the best ways for smart handicappers to cash in is to have a sense of which teams are underrated by the general public. There will always be a few teams that don’t get nearly the respect they deserve. The odds from bookmakers for those (more…)
It has become an all-too familiar story in the NBA – superstar players who have grown unhappy with their situation and demand a trade in the middle of the season. Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard – the list of all-stars that have held their teams ransom is long and impressive. (more…)
The hardest position to play well in the NBA is point guard. They have to command the play, set the tone, avoid mistakes, and make their team work. It used to be that point guard was a position that young players had been able to ease into. Recently, though, it has (more…)
It’s not particularly common in the NBA, but teams will occasionally be subjected to the grueling challenge of playing three games on three consecutive nights. It’s an incredibly tough challenge for NBA players – especially because at least one of the games – and often more – is typically played on (more…)
Every year in the NBA there is at least one team that looks good during the regular season that just doesn’t perform once the postseason starts. Once they are eliminated you can often look back and see the signs that pointed to what happened. If a sports bettor could spot those (more…)
Every time a trade deadline passes in a sport that trades a lot of players around, such as the NBA, I’m obviously interested to see what players are traded and what impact that will have on their new teams. As an expert sports handicapper, though, I’m almost as interested in the (more…)
