Week 5 NFL Picks ATS on FOX: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

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The week 5 NFL odds are posted on our live point spreads page

Arizona at San Francisco
Time: 3:25 PM (CT), FOX
Spread: SF -3
Total: 47

Odds c/o 5dimes

The San Francisco 49ers are 1-3 and are content with the good news that Jimmy Garoppolo had a successful surgery, but he is not expected to be back until next summer. And that leaves the 49ers in a world of hurt, even as it is 3-point favorites this week hosting the Arizona Cardinals at 3:25 PM (CT) on FOX. The over/under is set at 47-points according to NFL oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes

SAN FRAN.

Last week the Niners dropped its second straight to the San Diego Chargers. CJ Beathard looked decent in his first start, but hardly outstanding. He threw 23 of 37 for 298 yards and a pair of TDs, but he threw two interceptions and got precious little help from the Niners running backs. Matt Breida had 39 yards on nine carries, but Beathard was second in rushing with his 19 yards on seven attempts. The 49ers averaged under four yards-per-carry, and Beathard did fumble in the game as well, though San Francisco recovered it (as well as recovering DJ Reed’s fumble).

George Kittle led all receivers with 125 yards on just six catches including an 82-yard reception and a touchdown. The Niners did average 13.0 yards per catch, but the two interceptions were costly and perhaps in his second NFL start Beathard can reduce that to a more acceptable, well, zero.

ARIZONA

And while things have been rough for the Niners, they have been even tougher for the Arizona Cardinals. The team sits at 0-4, and it has already suffered two defeats by three points or less, to the Chicago Bears in Week 3 and last week it fell 17-20 to the Seattle Seahawks. Sam Bradford has struggled mightily, having thrown 62.5 percent for completion but not without his four interceptions and six sacks (for a loss of 33 total yards): His passer rating is just 62.5.

The rush attack has only been worse. Arizona averages just 3.5 yards-per-carry as a team, and leading rusher David Johnson is good for only 3.3. He has two rushing TDs, but no one else has managed even one. Johnson has taken 56 of the total 76 rush attempts, and the team’s third-leading rusher is its backup quarterback, Josh Rosen. It has four receivers topping 100 yards, but only three receiving TDs. Perhaps most pathetically, the team has just 27 receiving first downs which is less acceptable still in light of the fact it cannot rely on its rush: Just 17 rushing first downs.

Moving the football has been a tremendous problem for the Cardinals, and it will need to find some way to manufacture offense as 3-point underdogs in a game that the 49ers should headily control, even with an inexperienced quarterback like Beathard. He simply has potential, which is more than can be said for the collection of skill-less players at San Francisco’s skill positions.

ATS TRENDS:

Arizona
  • Cardinals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
  • Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.
  • Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
San Francisco
  • 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • 49ers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC West.
  • 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 5.
  • 49ers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • 49ers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games.
  • 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • 49ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in October.

OU TRENDS:

Arizona
  • Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games overall.
  • Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 games on grass.
  • Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games following a straight up loss.
  • Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 vs. NFC.
  • Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 7-2 in Cardinals last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 road games.
  • Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 vs. NFC West.
  • Under is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 games in October.
San Francisco
  • Over is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games on grass.
  • Over is 6-1 in 49ers last 7 games overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 home games.
  • Over is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 games in Week 5.
  • Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-2 in 49ers last 8 games in October.
  • Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

HEAD TO HEAD:

  • Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
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