Pac-12 College Football Week 4 Picks: (7) Stanford Cardinal at (20) Oregon Ducks

Big South Tournament

Stanford at Oregon
Time: 7 PM CT
Spread: STAN -2.5
Total: 56

Odds c/o 5dimes

The No. 7 AP-ranked Stanford Cardinal improved to 3-0 last week with a 30-10 win over UC Davis. Stanford now hosts another ranked team in No. 20 Oregon this week in week 4, and the Cardinal find itself narrow 2.5-point favorites on the road.

The game airs at 7 PM (CT) on ABC and will have an over/under set at 56 points according to NCAA Football oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.

Stanford

Stanford has the nation’s top defense thus far, having allowed only 7.7 points per game. Albeit, two of its three opponents have been relatively easy, but it did hold then-No. 17 USC to a mere field goal in Week 2. So, perhaps, this is not just a mirage from the Cardinal. Its offense has hardly been as impressive, ranking No. 95 in the country with just 26.0 points per game, while its rush attack has been good for just 115.3 yards per game (tied for No. 113). Stanford’s quarterback KJ Costello has thrown 54 of 88 (61.4 percent) for 729 yards with seven TDs and three INTs.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside has been the top receiver wth a team-leading 324 yards and five TDs. Only Colby Parkinson has added touchdowns (2) while having caught just five passes. Stanford also averages only 3.8 yards-per-attempt via the rush, with its leading rusher Bryce Love good for just 4.1 per. Love has carried 40 of the 90 attempts for Stanford, and Costello is not doing much from the QB position with five attempts for a total of negative-2 yards on the season.

However, with Stanford’s defense being so stellar, it will give the team time to gain some potency to its offense before its tougher stretch of the schedule begins. This week will hardly be easy in what should be a very closely contested game.

Oregon

No. 20 Oregon is 3-0 after defeating San Jose State 35-22 in Week 3. Weeks 1 and 2 saw the Ducks take down Bowling Green State and Portland State. Its schedule gets much tougher now with No. 7 Stanford and No. 10 Washington two week from today.

Oregon QB Justin Herbert has thrown 46 of 81 (56 percent) for 840 yards with 12 TDs and four interceptions. He has rushed 16 times for 41 yards with a TD and a 37-yard attempt thus far. CJ Verdell has rushed 39 times for 199 yards and a TD, while Tony Brooks-James has 173 yards and two TDs. Cyrus Habibi-Likio has rushed just five times but has four TDs and 12-yards as a red zone specialist.

Johnny Johnson III and Jaylon Redd each have 134 and 117 yards respectively on the season while having combined for seven of the Ducks’ 12 receiving TDs. Oregon’s pass attack is as potent as usual, but it really has yet to gain full steam in this young season.

ATS TRENDS:

Stanford
  • Cardinal are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Cardinal are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS loss.
  • Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
  • Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Oregon
  • Ducks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 conference games.
  • Ducks are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
  • Ducks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Ducks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
  • Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
  • Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Ducks are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
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