NFL Week Six Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas Chiefs
Sunday, October 15, 2017, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, Missouri
Opening Line: Kansas City -3
Current Line: Kansas City -3 1/2 (Even)
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 46
Opening Money Line: Chiefs -205 / Steelers +175
Current Money Line: Chiefs -185 / Steelers +165

The Chiefs look to remain undefeated as they host the Steelers Sunday.

The 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL’s only undefeated team as they host the 3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. The Chiefs lead the AFC West over the 3-1 Denver Broncos. Pittsburgh is tied for first with the e Baltomore ravens in the AFC North.

The Steelers lead the series 22-11 against the Chiefs. Pittsburgh has won five of the last six meetings against Kansas City including twice last season. The Steelers beat the Chiefs 43-14 in Pittsburgh in the regular season and then upset the Chiefs 18-16 in the AFC Divisional playoffs in Kansas City. This is the fourth straight season these teams are playing each other.

Pittsburgh is coached by Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have a road loss at the Chicago Bears 23-17 in overtime, and a home loss last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars 30-9. Pittsburgh has road wins over the Cleveland Browns 21-18 and Baltimore Ravens 26-9, plus a home win over the Minnesota Vikings 26-9. Pittsburgh was a 7.5 point favorite against Jacksonville and the total was 41. The Steelers are 2-3 ATS and the total is 0-5 this season.

Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid. The Chiefs have road wins over the New England Patriots 42-27, the Los Angeles Chargers 24-10 and last week over the Houston Texans 42-34, plus  home wins over the Philadelphia Eagles 27-20 and Washington Redskins 29-20. The Chiefs were 2 point favorites against the Texans and the total was 45. Kansas City is 5-0 ATS and the total is 4-1 this season.

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Pittsburgh is outscoring teams 20-18 this season. Pittsburgh is #6 in points allowed. The Steelers average 332 yards per game on offense including 242 passing and 90 rushing yards. The Steelers are #24 in rushing. Pittsburgh allows 276 total yards per game including 140 passing yards and 137 rushing yards. The Steelers are in the top three in total and pass defense, but #28 against the run. Pittsburgh is 26/67 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 25/71. The Steelers have forced 17 sacks and allowed 9 this season. Pittsburgh is -1 in turnovers. The Steelers have a defensive touchdown and have allowed two this season.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has completed 61.5% of his passes for 1,269 yards with 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.

Running back Le’Veon Bell has 102 carries for 371 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 27 catches for 144 yards. James Conner has 12 carries for 55 yards.

Receiver Antonio Brown has 40 catches for 545 yards and a touchdown. Martavis Bryant has 15 catches for 204 yards and a touchdown, plus 2 carries for 20 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster has 12 catches for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Jesse James has 18 catches for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns. Three defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Kansas City is outscoring teams 33-22 this season. Kansas City is #1 in scoring.  The Chiefs average 414 total yards per game on offense including 258 passing and 156 rushing yards per game. KC is #2 two in total and rushing offense and #8 is passing. Kansas City allows 366 total yards per game on defense including 248 passing and 118 rushing. The Chiefs are #27 in yards allowed and #25 in pass defense. The Chiefs are 30/65 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 27/68. Kansas City  has forced 14 sacks and allowed 17 sacks this season. The Chiefs are +6 in turnovers.

Quarterback Alex Smith has completed 76.6% of his passes for 1,391 yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions, and has 23 carries for 108 yards and a touchdown. He has been sacked 17 times. Rookie Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback of the future.

Rookie running back Kareem Hunt has 97 carries for 609 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 16 catches for 166 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Charcandrick West has a rushing touchdown along with 23 rushing yards on five carries, and also has 10 catches for 63 yards and two touchdowns. Spencer Ware was supposed to be the starter but tore his ACL in the preseason.

Receiver Tyreek Hill has 25 catches for 356 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 6 carries for 24 yards. He is probable with a hamstring injury. Tight end Travis Kelce has 29 catches for 353 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a concussion. Chris Conley has 11 catches for 175 yards.  Receiver Albert Wilson has 16 catches for 158 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a knee injury. Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report along with three offensive linemen.

Pittsburgh is 3-0-1 ATS after failing to cover, 4-1 against teams with winning records, after rushing for less than 90 yards and gaining more than 350 total yards, 22-8-2 against teams with winning road records, 21-8 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 5-2 after a double digit home loss, 13-6 after a straight up loss, 2-5 after allowing less than 150 passing yards, and 1-4-1 after scoring less than 15 points. The under is 5-1 in this series recently.

Kansas City is 5-0 ATS after a straight up win and a cover and overall, 4-0 after gaining more than 350 total yards, 5-1 against AFC teams and on grass, 4-1 against teams with winning road records and in October, 7-2 against teams with winning records, 5-2 in week six, 3-7 after allowing more than 350 yards and 1-5 after allowing more than 30 yards. The home team is 7-2 ATS in this series recently. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS at home against the Steelers recently.

Pittsburgh has been publicly squabbling. After throwing five interceptions last week, Roethlisberger expressed doubt if he still had it. Still, the Steelers have a dominant defense and should be able to slow down the explosive offense of Kansas City. I think it will be close, but I like the Chiefs to win at home.

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