NFL Week Six Betting Picks: Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 15, 2017, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
EverBank Field – Jacksonville, Florida
Opening Line: Jacksonville -2 1/2
Current Line: Jacksonville -2 1/2
Opening Total: 43 1/2
Current Total: 42 1/2
Opening Money Line: Jaguars -145 / Rams +125
Current Money Line: Jaguars -135 / Rams +115

The Jaguars and Rams are both 3-2 as meet Sunday in Jacksonville.

Two of the most surprising teams early in the NFL season meet as the Los Angeles Rams travel to the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday afternoon. Both teams are 3-2 but combined to go 7-25 last season. The Rams are tied for first in the NFC West with the Seattle Seahawks. The Jaguars are alone in first place in the AFC South with the other three teams all 2-3. The Rams lead the series 3-1 against the Jaguars. The then St. Louis Rams won the last meeting 34-20 at home in 2013.

Los Angeles is is led by first year coach Sean McVay. The Rams have home losses to the Washington Redskins 27-20 and Seattle Seahawks 16-10 last week. LA has a home win over the Indianapolis Colts 46-9, plus road wins over the San Francisco 49ers 41-39 and over the Dallas Cowboys 35-30. Against the Seahawks, the Rams took a 10-0 lead early in the second but would not score again. The Rams were 2 point favorites against the Seahawks and the total was 47. Los Angeles is 2-3 ATS and the total is 4-1 this season.

Jacksonville is coached by Doug Marrone, in his first year with the Jaguars. The Jaguars have a home loss to the Tennessee Titans 37-16 and a road loss to the New York Jets 23-20 in overtime. Jacksonville has road wins over the Houston Texans 29-7 and Pittsburgh Steelers 30-9 last week, plus a neutral site win in London over the Baltimore Ravens 44-7. Jacksonville was a 7.5 point underdog at Pittsburgh and the total was 41. The Jaguars are 3-2 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season.

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Los Angeles is outscoring teams  30-24 this season. LA is #2 in scoring and #23 in points allowed. The Rams average 382 yards per game on offense including 271 passing and 111 rushing yards per game. LA is #5 in both total offense and passing. On defense, the Rams allow 342 yards per game including 209 passing and 134 rushing yards. The Rams are #10 in pass defense, and #27 against the run. LA is 32/68 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 32/78. The Rams have forced 15 sacks and allowed 6 this season. Los Angeles is -1 in turnovers and has scored 2 defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Jared Goff has completed 61% of his passes for 1,360 yards with 7 touchdowns and and 3 interceptions, plus he has 7 carries for 23 rushing yards. He has only been sacked six times.

Running back Todd Gurley has 100 carries for 405 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 22 catches for 241 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tavon Austin has 20 carries for 108 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches.  Malcolm Brown will also get some carries and has a rushing touchdown. Lance Dunbar is out until at least week seven  with a knee injury.

Receiver Robert Woods has 17 catches for 252 yards.  Receiver Cooper Kupp has 17 catches for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sammy Watkins has 14 catches for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. He returns after missing last week with an illness. Tyler Higbee has 10 catches for 166 yards.  Tight end Gerald Everett has 6 catches for 150 yards. Four defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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Jacksonville is outscoring teams 28-17 this season. The Jaguars are in the top five in both categories. Jacksonville averages 325 total yards per game on offense including 160 passing and 165 rushing yards. The Jags are #31 in passing but lead the league in rushing. On defense, Jacksonville allows 324 total yards including 178 passing yards and 146 rushing yards. The Jaguars are #3 in pass defense and #31 against the rush. Jacksonville is 25/67 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 28/71. Jacksonville has forced 20 sacks and allowed 5 this season. The Jaguars are +10 in turnovers. Jacksonville has scored 4 defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Blake Bortles has completed 54.8% of his passes for 827 yards with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and has rushed for 107 yards on 15 carries.

Rookie Running back Leonard Fournette has 109 carries for 466 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with an ankle injury. Chris Ivory has 38 carries for 159 yards, along with 7 catches for 69 yards. He is probable with a hip injury. Corey Grant has 9 carries for 97 yards.

Receiver Marqise Lee has 15 catches for 208 yards. He is probable with injured ribs. Allen Hurns has 18 catches for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Marcedes Lewis has 5 catches for 76 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jaelen Strong is probable with a hamstring injury. Arrelious Benn si questionable with a groin injury. Dede Westbrook is out until at least week nine with an abdominal injury. Allen Robinson and Rashad Greene are both out for the season. Five defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Los Angeles is 11-5-1 ATS in week six, 28-58-1 against teams with winning home records, 7-19-1 after allowing less than 250 total yards, 1-4 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, against teams with winning records, in October, and in road games, 3-13-1 overall, 2-9-1 after failing to cover, 1-5 after scoring less than 15 points, 1-7 after a straight up loss, 1-8 after gaining more than 350 total yards and 1-8-1 on grass. The Rams have covered all four games in this series.

Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 4-0 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, and against teams with winning records, 4-1 in week six, 6-2 overall, 5-2 against teams with winning road records, 19-44-2 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 2-5 at home, 2-6 after rushing for 150 yards or more, 1-4 after allowing 15 points or less, and 1-5 after a straight up win by 14 points or more.

Todd Gurley should run wild on a field he is very familiar with from his days at Georgia as the Jaguars struggle to stop the run. This is only the second true home  game of the season for the Jaguars but the game in London was technically a home game. This should be a high scoring game but I think the Jaguars pull out a close victory.

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