NFL Week Six Betting Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 15, 2017, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, Arizona
Opening Line: Arizona -1
Current Line: Tampa Bay -1 1/2
Opening Total: 44 1/2
Current Total: 46
Opening Money Line: Buccaneers -130 / Cardinals +110
Current Money Line: Buccaneers +125 / Cardinals +105

The Buccaneers look to steal a road win at the Cardinals Sunday.

The 2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to the 2-3 Arizona Cardinals Sunday. Tampa Bay is tied for third in the NFC South with the New Orleans Saints. Arizona is in third place in the NFC West, but only a game behind the 3-2 Rams and Seahawks.

Arizona leads the series 10-9 against Tampa Bay. The Cardinals have won two straight games in the series including a 40-7 thrashing last year also at home in the desert.

Tampa Bay is coached by Dirk Koetter. The Buccaneers’ opening game against the Miami Dolphins was postponed due to Hurricane Irma to week 11 when both teams have a mutual bye. Tampa Bay has  home wins over the Chicago Bears 29-7 and New York Giants 25-23. The Buccs have a  road loss at the Minnesota Vikings 34-17 and a home loss to the New England Patriots 19-14 last week in a Thursday night game. Despite three missed field goals by kicker Nick Folk, Tampa Bay had a chance to win on the last play of the game against New England but the desperation pass was incomplete in the end zone. Tampa Bay was a 3.5 point underdog and the total was 54.5. The Buccaneers are 1-3 ATS and the total is 2-2 this season.

Arizona is coached by Bruce Arians. The Cardinals have road losses at the Detroit Lions 35-23 and Philadelphia Eagles 34-7  and a home loss to the Dallas Cowboys 28-17. Arizona has a road win over the Indianapolis Colts 16-13 in overtime and a home win over the San Francisco 49ers 18-15 in overtime.  The Cardinals were six point underdogs against the Eagles and the total was 45. Arizona is 0-5 ATS and the total is 1-4 this season.

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Tampa Bay is outscoring teams 21.2-20.8 this season. The Buccaneers average 374 yards per game on offense including 288 passing and 86 rushing yards. The Buccs are #6 in total offense, #3 in passing and #27 in rushing.  Tampa Bay allows 396 total yards per game including 309 passing and 87 rushing. The Buccaneers are #30 in total offense, #31 against the pass and #8 in rush defense.  Tampa Bay is 16/46 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 26/59. The Buccs have forced 4 sacks and allowed 7 this season. Tampa Bay is +2 in turnovers and has a defensive touchdown.

Quarterback Jameis Winston has completed 61% of his passes for 1,198 yards with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 9 carries for 30 rushing yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the back-up.

Running back Jacquizz Rogers has 43 carries for 167 yards and a touchdown, plus 3 catches for 38 yards. Doug Martin returned from a four game suspension and had 13 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown, plus a catch for 8 yards.  Peyton Barber has 12 carries for 49 yards. Charles Sims has 23 rushing yards on six carries, but does have 9 catches for 54 yards.

Receiver Mike Evans has 24 catches for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns. DeSean Jackson has 14 catches for 249 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a forearm injury. Adam Humphries has 17 catches for 207 yards. Cameron Brate has 15 catches for 205 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end O.J. Howard has 4 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. Chris Godwin has 4 catches for 52 yards. After two straight poor performances, the Buccaneers released kicker Nick Folk and signed Patrick Murray to replace him. Ten defensive players are on the injury report.

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Arizona is being outscored 25-16 this season. Arizona is #27 in points allowed and #29 in scoring. The Cardinals average 341 yards per game including 289 passing and 52 rushing yards. Arizona is #2 in passing offense, but last in rushing. On defense, the Cardinals allow 326 total yards per game including 231 passing and 95 rushing yards.  Arizona is 32/84 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 33/78. Arizona has forced 10 sacks and allowed 19 this season. The Cardinals are -3 in turnovers.

Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 59.9% of his passes for 1,573 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, plus he has 9 carries for 16 rushing yards. He has been sacked 19 times, but has taken every snap so far this season.

Running back David Johnson had 11 carries for 23 yards along with 6 catches for 67 yards. He is out until at least week 10 with  a broken wrist suffered in week one. In order to improve the dreadful running game, the Cardinals traded for Adrian Peterson from the New Orleans Saints. Peterson was expendable in a crowded Saints’ backfield. He had 27 carries for 81 yards. He will be the starting running back as the Cardinals released Chris Johnson this week.   Chris Johnson had 45 carries for 114 yards, plus 5 catches for 43 yards. Andre Ellington has 13 carries for 49 yards, and has 28 catches for 257 yards.  Kerwynn Williams has 19 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver  Larry Fitzgerald has 32 catches for 327 yards and 2 touchdowns. J.J. Nelson has 17 catches for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a hamstring injury.  Jaron Brown has 17 catches for 244 yards and a touchdown. John Brown has 9 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a quad injury.  Tight end Jermaine Gresham has 12 catches for 90 yards. Ten defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS after allowing 350 yards or more, 5-1 after scoring less than 15 points, 5-2 in road games, 4-9 after a straight loss and after failing to cover, 1-4 against teams with losing records, after gaining more than 350 yards, and against NFC teams, 1-5 overall, and 0-5 after allowing 250 passing yards or more. The under is 4-1 in this series recently.

Arizona is 14-5 ATS after allowing 250 passing yards, 6-18 overall, 2-6 after scoring less than 15 points, 5-16 after rushing for less than 90 yards, 6-21 after allowing more than 350 yards, 1-4 after a straight up loss, 1-5 at home and on grass, 0-5 after failing to cover and after passing for 250 yards or more, 0-4 after a loss by 14 points or more, in October and against NFC teams. The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS against the Buccaneers recently.

Look, Arizona has two wins over the Colts (without Andrew Luck) and 49ers both in overtime. The offensive line is terrible and can’t run block or pass protect. They can’t run the ball at all, and I don’t know if Peterson will help either. Tampa Bay is maturing but they are still young. They have had a tough schedule so far, but I like them to win convincingly on the road.

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