NFL Week 12 Picks: Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, 11/24/13, 8:30 PM EST
Opening Point Spread: Denver -3
Current Betting Line: Denver -2.5
Opening Total: 54.5
Current Total: 53.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

Patriots Jets AFC Playoff Preview — The New England Patriots are dangerous home underdogs Sunday

Denver has won three games in a row since suffering its only loss of the 2013 campaign, including a 27-17 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs as 7.5-point home favorites in Week 11, while going UNDER the betting total in two consecutive contests. The Broncos lead the NFL in averaging 39.8 points per game, which is important to consider when looking over the pro football odds Sunday night. The team has scored 47 offensive touchdowns on 130 possessions. Denver is 2-1 SUATS as road favorites of three points or less the last two-plus seasons.

The Broncos are led by quarterback Peyton Manning, who is protected by an offensive line that has allowed the second-fewest sacks in the league through 11 weeks of the season. Manning has compiled a losing 4-9 SU record in 13 all-time meetings against Patriots signal-caller Tom Brady, which can’t be ignored when making your NFL betting picks. Denver has forced an NFL-best 13 takeaways in the fourth quarter this season—resulting in a +6 turnover margin in the final frame.

New England has compiled a winning regular-season record against 30 of 31 NFL opponents under head coach Bill Belichick since 2000, but has split its 10 meetings against Denver in that situation. The Patriots are also a dominating 24-2 SU in the second half of the regular season the last three-plus seasons, as they attempt to bounce back from a 24-20 defeat to the Carolina Panthers as three-point road underdogs on Monday Night Football. New England is 6-0 SUATS versus AFC West foes since 2011, with the OVER going 4-2 in that situation.

The Patriots have won 50 of 62 home games after Halloween since 2002, but Brady has a losing record against this week’s opponent. The three-time Super Bowl winner is 4-6 SU in his career against the Broncos, including a 3-5 mark during the regular season, but he’s threw 13 touchdowns and five interceptions in those affairs.