NFL Betting Week Four: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, California
Sunday, October 4, 2015, 3:25 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Green Bay -7
Current Line: Green Bay -7 1/2
Opening Total: 47 1/2
Current Total: 48 1/2
Opening Money Line: Packers -365 / 49ers +300
Current Money Line: Packers -325 / 49ers +265

The 3-0 Packers travel to the reeling 1-2 49ers Sunday.
The 3-0 Packers travel to the reeling 1-2 49ers Sunday.

After a season opening win at home against the Minnesota Vikings, the San Francisco 49ers have lost two straight games by a combined score of 90-25. Now, the 49ers host the 3-0 Green Bay Packers Sunday in Santa Clara.

Green Bay leads the series 34-30-1 all-time against San Francisco. The 49ers have won 4 straight games against the Packers including a couple of playoff wins. San Francisco went into Lambeau in the 2014 NFC Wild Card Playoffs and escaped with a 23-20 victory. Before the current four game winning streak by the 49ers, the Packers had won 12 of the previous 13 games in the series.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers have a road win at the Chicago Bears 31-23, and at home against the Seattle Seahawks 27-17 and last Monday against the Kansas City Chiefs 38-28. The Packers were 4.5 point favorites against the Chiefs and the total was 47. The Packers took a 14-0  lead in the first quarter and would expand the lead to 24-7 by halftime. In the second, Green Bay led by as many as 24, but the Chiefs would score some late cosmetic touchdowns to make the game seem closer than it was. Aaron Rodgers torched the Chiefs with 5 touchdown passes. The Packers are 3-0 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season.

San Francisco is coached by Jim Tomsula. The 49ers beat the Vikings 20-3 in the opener, but then lost 43-18 at the Pittsburgh Steelers and 47-7 last week at the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals were 7 point favorites and the total was 45. It turned out to be an absolute debacle for the 49ers. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick threw two pick sixes in the first four minutes of the game. The Cardinals would make it 28-0 midway through the second, before the 49ers finally got on the board with a Kaepernick touchdown run. They wouldn’t score again as the Cardinals added 19 more points to win by 40. Kaepernick finished with 67 passing yards with 4 interceptions. San Francisco had 156 total yards and 10 first downs to 446 total yards for the Cardinals. The 49ers are 1-2 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season.

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Green Bay is outscoring teams 32-23 this season. The Packers are #4 in scoring. Green Bay is averaging 377 yards per game on offense including 249 passing and 128 rushing yards. The Packers are #9 in rushing and #8 in total offense. On defense, the Packers are allowing 351 yards per game including 223 passing and 128 rushing yards. Green Bay is #11 in pass defense, but #27 in rush defense. The Packers are 15/34 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 20/41. Green Bay has forced 11 sacks and has allowed 3 this season. The Packers are +3 in turnovers.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 73.6% of his passes for 771 yards along with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions, along with 16 carries for 74 yards. Running back Eddie Lacy has 32 carries for 140 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches for 55 yards. He is probable with an ankle injury. James Starks has 39 carries for 129 yards along with 5 catches.

Receiver Randall Cobb has 20 catches for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns. James Jones has 12 catches for 219 yards and 4 touchdowns. Davante Adams has 9 catches for 92 yards. He is out with an ankle injury. Tight end Richard Rodgers  has 8 catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Jordy Nelson is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during the pre-season. Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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San Francisco is being outscored 31-15 this season. The 49ers are #31 in points allowed and last in scoring.  The 49ers average 320 yards per game on offense including 172 passing and 148 rushing yards. San Francisco is #30 in passing and #2 in rushing. On defense, the 49ers are allowing 382 total yards per game including 284 passing and 98 rushing yards. The 49ers are #25 in total defense but #26 in pass defense. San Francisco is 19/46 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 14/34. The 49ers have forced 6 sacks and allowed 8 this season. San Francisco is -4 in turnovers.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has completed 64.8% of his passes for 567 yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and has rushed for 138 yards on 23 carries with a touchdown. Running back Carlos Hyde has 54 carries for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 42 yards. Jarryd Hayne and Mike Davis will also get some carries. Reggie Bush returns from a calf injury after missing the last two games.

Receiver Torrey Smith has 7 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a knee injury. Tight end Vernon Davis has 8 catches for 109 yards. He is out with a knee injury.  Anquan Boldin has 12 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown.  Tight end Vance McDonald and  receiver Bruce Ellington are both probable.

Green Bay is 4-0 ATS after a straight up win, and overall, 5-0-1 ATS after gaining 350 total yards or more, 7-1 in October, 5-1 against NFC teams, 4-1 after a cover, 40-17-1 on grass, 36-17-2 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 3-8 against teams with losing records, and 0-4 when playing on a Sunday after a Monday night game. Green Bay is 10-4-2 ATS against the 49ers recently including 5-2-1 in San Francisco.

San Francisco is 6-0 ATS in week four, 13-3 in October, 11-4-1 after passing for less than 150 yards, 2-7 after allowing 30 points or more, 1-4-1 ATS after failing to cover and against NFC teams, 1-5 at home, 1-6-1 after a straight up loss of 14 points or more, 1-7-1 overall, 1-9 on grass, 0-4-1 after a straight up loss, and after allowing 350 yards or more, and 0-5-1 against teams with winning records. The over is 6-1 in this series recently. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in this series recently.

San Francisco can’t score and they can’t stop anyone either. The schedule isn’t helping either with  a stretch of 5 playoff teams from last year in six games. This could be another rout and I like the Packers to win convincingly.

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