NFL Betting Picks From London: New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 4, 2015, 9:30 am Eastern, TV: CBS
Wembley Stadium – London, England
Opening Line: New York -1
Current Line: New York -1 1/2 (-115)
Opening Total: 41
Current Total: 42 1/2
Opening Money Line: Jets -120 / Dolphins +100
Current Money Line: Jets -130 / Dolphins +110

The Jets and Dolphins meet for the 100th time ever Sunday in London.
The Jets and Dolphins meet for the 100th time ever Sunday in London.

The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins have been playing since 1966, and are meeting for the 100th time. This is the first time they have ever played outside of South Florida or New York/New Jersey as the rivalry is renewed in London. New York leads the series 51-47-1. The two teams split the series last year with each winning on the road. The Dolphins won 16-13 in East Rutherford and the Jets won 37-24 in Miami in the regular season finale.

New York is coached by Todd Bowles. The Jets are 2-1 this season. New York has a home win over the Cleveland Browns 31-10 and a road win at the Indianapolis Colts 20-7. Last week, the Jets lost at home to the Philadelphia Eagles 24-17. The Eagles had previously been 0-2 before than game. The Eagles jumped out to a 24-0 lead in the second quarter, including an 89 yard punt return for a touchdown from Darren Sproles. The Jets would score 17 straight points including a field goal with 2:34 left to pull within a touchdown. The Jets were unable to recover the onside kick and the Eagles ran out the clock to seal the win. New York outgained Philadelphia 323-231 but four turnovers doomed the Jets. New York was a 3 point favorite and the total was 47. The Jets are 2-1 ATS and the total is 1-2.

Miami is coached by Joe Philbin. The Dolphins are 1-2. Miami beat the Washington Redskins 17-10 on the road to open the season. The Dolphins then lost at the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-20 and last week at home to the Buffalo Bills 41-14. The Bills jumped out to a 27-0 halftime lead and never looked back in a rout of their AFC East rivals. The Bills forced 3 Dolphin turnovers. Miami was a 1.5 point favorite and the total was 43.5. The Dolphins are 1-2 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season.

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New York is outscoring teams 23-14 this season. The Jets lead the league in points allowed. New York averages 333 total yards per game including 233 passing and 101 rushing yards. New York is 18/43 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 19/46. New York has forced 4 sacks and allowed 2 this season. The Jets are +5 in turnovers.

Twenty two Jets are listed on the injury report. This includes such defensive stars Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis who are both probable and ten other defensive players

Until last week, quarterback Geno Smith was on that list after suffering a broken jaw during a locker room fight with a teammate during training camp. Smith was active last week but stayed on the bench behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick will continue to start but could be on a short leash if he throws 3 picks like he did against the Eagles. He has thrown for 706 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and also has 18 rushing yards.

Running back Chris Ivory has 34 carries for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 12 yards. He is probable with a groin injury. Bilal Powell has 34 carries for 131 yards, along with 13 catches for 76 yards. Receiver Brandon Marshall has 23 catches for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eric Decker has 10 catches for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with a knee injury. Quincy Enunwa has 6 catches for 77 yards. Devin Smith is probable with a rib injury. Chris Owusu is out until mid-October with a leg injury. Tight ends Jeff Cumberland, Jace Amaro and Zach Sudfeld are all out Sunday.

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Miami is being outscored 25-17 this season. The Dolphins are #27 in scoring. Miami averages 344 total yards per game on offense, including 272 passing and 73 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins are #8 in passing but #28 in rushing. On defense, Miami is allowing 391 total yards per game including 246 passing and 145 rushing yards. The Dolphins are #26 in total offense and #31 in rush defense. Miami is 15/46 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 18/42. Miami has forced only one sack but has allowed seven this season. The Dolphins are -2 in turnovers.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 882 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 23 rushing yards. Running back Lamar Miller has 30 carries for 105 yards, along with 9 catches for 77 yards. Jonas Gray has 9 carries for 49 yards. He is questionable with a calf injury. Running abck Jay Ajayi is on injured reserve with broken ribs.

Wide receiver Rishard Matthews has 16 catches for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jarvis landry has 24 catches for 230 yards. Tight end Jordan Cameron has 10 catches for 151 yards. He is questionable with a groin injury. Tight end Dion Sims is out with a concussion. DeVante Parker, Greg Jennings, Jake Stoneburner and Damien Williams will also get some catches. StoneBurner and Williams each have a touchdown catch.

New York is 6-0 ATS against AFC teams, 5-1 overall and after rushing for 90 yards or less, 4-1 after straight up loss and after an ATS loss, 3-1-1 after allowing 250 total yards or less, 5-2 against AFC East teams, 1-4 in October, 1-9 after passing for more than 250 yards, and 0-4 in week 4. The Jets are 23-9-1 ATS in the last 33 games against the Dolphins. The under is 4-1 in this series recently.

Miami is 7-3 ATS after a double digit home loss, 3-7 in week four, 2-5 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 1-7 after a straight up loss of more than 14 points, and overall, 1-5 after failing to cover, and on grass, 1-4 after a straight up loss and after scoring 15 points or less, 2-8 after allowing more than 30 points, 0-4 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more, after gaining more than 350 total yards, after passing for 250 yards or more, and against AFC East teams, plus 0-6 against AFC teams. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in this series recently.

New York has been playing better early in the season, but I am not sure either team is that good. The Jets have a lot more injuries, but still have a better defense. Neither team is great on offense. I like the Jets to win a close low scoring game.

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