NFL Betting Picks Week Seven: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Sunday, October 25, 2015, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, New Jersey
Opening Line: New York -6
Current Line: New York -3 (-105)
Opening Total: 45 1/2
Current Total: 44 1/2
Opening Money Line: Giants -175 / Cowboys +155
Current Money Line: Giants -155 / Cowboys +135

The Giants are 3 point favorites against the Cowboys Sunday.
The Giants are 3 point favorites against the Cowboys Sunday.

After a 2-0 start with wins over NFC East division opponents, the 2-3 Dallas Cowboys have since lost 3 straight games. After a bye week, Dallas travels to the 3-3 New York Giants Sunday. New York is tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the division.

Dallas leads the series 62-43-2 against New York in a series that dates back to 1960 when the Cowboys first entered the league. Dallas has won five straight games in the series including 27-26 in the season opener this year. The Giants had leads of 16-6 and 23-13, but allowed Dallas to comeback and win. The Cowboys had three turnovers in that game and the Giants scored 17 points off those turnovers.

Of course, Dallas was a completely different team as quarterback Tony Romo would suffer a broken collarbone in the next game for the Cowboys. Brandon Weeden started the next three games, but has been benched in favor of Matt Cassel, acquired in a trade from the Buffalo Bills after the Romo injury. Also, receiver Dez Bryant suffered a broken foot in the first game against the the Giants. There was some talk he might return for this game but he ended up not even making the trip to New York. The Cowboys hope he can return next week against the Seattle Seahawks.

Dallas is coached by Jason Garrett. Aside from the win over the Giants, the Cowboys beat the Eagles 20-10 in Philadlephia. The Cowboys also have home losses to the Atlanta Falcons 39-28 and last week against the New England Patriots 30-6, plus a road loss at the New Orleans Saints 26-20 in overtime.

Dallas was an 8 point underdog against the undefeated Patriots and the total was 51. The defense let the Cowboys hang around in the first half, but Dallas could only manage two field goals for the game. The Cowboys had 265 total yards and two turnovers. Dallas is 1-4 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season.

New York is coached by Tom Coughlin. The Giants opened the season with two straight losses at the Cowboys 27-26 and at home against the Atlanta Falcons 24-20. New York had won 3 straight games before losing at the Eagles 27-7 Monday night. The Giants have road wins at the Washington Redskins 32-21 and San Francisco 49ers 30-27, along with a road win at the Buffalo Bills 24-10.

New York was  a 3.5 point underdog against Philadelphia and the total was 50.5. The Giants took a 7-0 lead in the first, but would not score again. The game was sloppy with a combined 7 turnovers. The Eagles had 428 total yards to 247 for the Giants. New York is 3-3 ATS and the total is 3-3 this season.

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Dallas is being outscored 25-25 this season. The Cowboys are #23 in points allowed and #25 in scoring. Dallas averages 348 total yards per game on offense including 242 passing and 106 rushing. On defense, the Cowboys are allowing 349 yards per game including 254 passing and 95 rushing yards. Dallas is 20/59 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 28/65. Dallas has forced 11 sacks and has allowed 11 as well. The Cowboys are -5 in turnovers.

Weeden threw for 738 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions plus 30 rushing yards. When teams realized Weeden couldn’t throw the deep ball, they began stacking the box with nine guys. Cassel has to be an improvement even though he has been inconsistent in his career. Romo threw for 551 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions before the injury, and also rushed for 11 yards. There is hope Romo can return in five weeks against the Miami Dolphins.

Running back Joseph Randle has 74 carries for 291 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 10 catches for 48 yards. Darren McFadden has 37 carries for 129 yards and a touchdown, along with 12 catches for 103 yards. Lance Dunbar had 67 rushing yards, but did have 21 catches for 215 yards before tearing his ACL. Christine Michael, acquired in a trade from the Seahawks, could get more carries to punch up the anemic running game.

Tight end Jason Witten has 30 catches for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Terrance Williams has 14 catches for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cole Beasley has 22 catches for 214 yards. Brice Butler is probable with a hamstring injury. Defensive ends Greg Hardy and Randy Gregory are both probable. Gregory suffered a sprained ankle in the first game against the Giants and looks to return.

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New York is outscoring teams 23.2-22.7 this season. The Giants average 353 yards per game on offense including 263 passing and 90 rushing yards. New York is #10 in passing offense, but #28 in rushing.  New York is allowing 392 yards per game on defense including 299 passing and 94 rushing yards. The Giants are #28 in total defense, #31 against the pass but #7 in rush defense. New York is 37/78 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 43/95. The Giants have 7 sacks and have allowed 8 this season. New York is +6 in turnovers. The Giants have allowed a special teams touchdown and a defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Eli Manning has completed 66% of his passes for 1,606 yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and has 8 carries for 52 yards. Running back Rashad Jennings has 66 carries for 243 yards and a touchdown, along with 14 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown. Andre Williams has 45 carries for 127 yards and a touchdown. Shane Vereen has 29 carries for 101 yards, plus 21 catches for 214 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. has 38 catches for 489 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is probable with a hamstring injury. Rueben Randle has 24 catches for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is also probable with a hamstring injury.  Tight end Larry Donnell has 24 catches for 183 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Victor Cruz is out with a calf injury and has yet to play this season. Tight end Jerome Cunningham is questionable with a knee injury. Tight end Daniel Fells is out indefinitely with a staph infection in his foot. Thirteen defensive players are listed on the injury report, including stars linebacker Jon Beason (concussion), defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (fingers) and cornerback Prince Amukamara (pectoral). Beason is probable but the other two are out indefinitely.

Dallas is 4-0 ATS in week seven, 5-1 in road games, 9-2 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 4-1 after a double digit home loss, 1-4 after a straight up loss of 14 points or more, and overall, and 0-5 on fieldturf. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in this series recently.

New York is 5-1 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards, 9-19-1 after gaining 250 yards or less, 3-8 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 1-4 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards and in October. The over is 15-5-1 in this series recently including 9-3-1 in New York.

It is hard to know what to make of Dallas until we see if the offense improves under Cassel. Still, if Dallas can tread water until Romo and Bryant return they will still be the favorite in the division. The Cowboys face winnable games in their next four, even without their star players. I think Dallas pulls off the road upset against the banged up Giants.

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