#6 Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers
Reser Stadium – Corvallis, Oregon
Saturday, November 15, 2014, 10:45 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Arizona State -9
Current Line: Arizona State -7 (-115)
Opening Total: 61 1/2
Current Total: 59
Opening Money Line: ASU -335 / OSU +275
Current Money Line: ASU -295 / OSU +245
Most experts think that if the 8-1 Arizona State Sun Devils win the rest of their games then they will secure a spot in the four team College Football Playoff. However, the path for the Sun Devils is still treacherous with games at rival Arizona and a potential showdown with Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship game. The Sun Devils still have two games left before that can happen. Even though Oregon State and Washington State have losing records, ASU can’t afford to overlook them. Arizona State travels to Corvallis to take on the 4-5 Oregon State Beavers Saturday night. The Sun Devils lead the Pac 12 South Division with a 5-1 record. The Beavers are in last place in the North Division with a 1-5 conference record.
Arizona State leads the series 26-13-1 against Oregon State but the Beavers are 9-6-1 at home against the Sun Devils. Arizona State won last year in Tempe 30-17. The home team has won the last 4 games in this series.
Arizona State is coached by Todd Graham. The only loss came at home to UCLA 62-27. The Sun Devils have won 5 straight games since then. Arizona State has home wins over Weber State 45-14, Stanford 26-10, Utah 19-16 in overtime, and last week against Notre Dame 55-31. The Sun Devils have road wins over New Mexico 58-23, Colorado 38-24, USC 38-34, and Washington 24-10. ASU is 5-4 ATS and the total is 4-5 this season. The Sun Devils were 3 point favorites against Notre Dame and the total was 62.
Oregon State is coached by Mike Riley. The Beavers have road losses at USC 35-10 and Stanford 38-14, along with road losses at Utah 29-23 in double overtime, California 45-31 and last week against Washington State 39-32. The Beavers have lost 4 straight games and have to win 2 of their last 3 games to become bowl eligible. Oregon State has home wins over Portland State 29-14 and San Diego State 28-7, along with road wins over Hawaii 38-30 and Colorado 36-31. The Beavers are 2-7 ATS and the total is 5-3-1 this season. Oregon State was an 8.5 point favorite against Washington State and the total was 59.
Arizona State is outscoring teams 37-25 this season. The Sun Devils are #22 in scoring nationally. Arizona State is averaging 476 yards per game including 284 passing yards and 192 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are #44 or better in all three categories nationally. On defense, ASU is allowing 397 total yards per game including 231 passing and 165 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are +7 in turnovers with 16 takeaways. ASU averages 35 penalty yards per game and opponents average 57. The Sun Devils are 60/143 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 60/151. Arizona State has forced 27 sacks and allowed 23 this season. The Sun Devils are 39/43 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns and opponents are 24/32 with 16 touchdowns. ASU has 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns and has allowed 4 this season.
Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly injured his foot against Colorado and missed 3 games. Back-up Mike Bercovici started those 3 games, but has only taken one snap in the three games since Kelly returned. Kelly has thrown for 1,234 yards with 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and also has 55 carries for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bercovici has thrown for 1,322 yards with 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 30 rushing yards.
Running back D.J. Foster has 141 carries for 821 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 39 catches for 462 yards and 2 touchdowns. Demario Richards has 55 carries for 330 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kalen Ballage has 3 rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown. Receiver Jaelen Strong has 62 catches for 879 yards and 9 touchdowns. Cameron Smith has 27 catches for 395 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eight defensive players are questionable or out for the Sun Devils.
Oregon State is being outscored 30-27 this season. The Beavers are averaging 380 yards per game on offense including 280 passing and 109 rushing yards. OSU is #27 in passing but #116 in rushing out of 128 FBS teams. On defense, the Beavers are allowing 385 yards per game including 232 passing and 152 rushing yards. Oregon State is +4 in turnovers with 14 takeaways. Oregon State is averaging 84 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 67. The Beavers are 41/128 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 58/143. OSU has forced 22 sacks and allowed 28 this season. The Beavers are 36/41 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns and opponents are 27/32 with 22 touchdowns. Oregon State has a kick return for a touchdown and has allowed a pick six and a punt return for a touchdown this season.
Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion has completed 63.9% of his passes for 2,437 yards with 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Running back Terron Ward has 114 carries for 548 yards and 9 touchdowns along with 27 catches for 228 yards. Storm Woods has 77 carries for 466 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. Woods (thigh) is probable. Receiver Victor Bolden has 51 catches for 568 yards and a touchdown, plus 18 carries for 115 yards. Jordan Villamin has 25 catches for 384 yards and 3 touchdowns. Connor Hamlett has 27 catches for 306 yards and a touchdown. Richard Mullaney has 18 catches for 216 yards and a touchdown. He is out for the season with an elbow injury. Caleb Smith and Hunter Jarmon will also get catches, along with the running backs.
Arizona State is 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records, 4-1 overall, 5-2 against teams with losing home records, 3-7 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, and 2-6-1 on fieldturf. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in this series recently. The over is 6-2 in this series recently and the last 4 in Corvallis between the teams have gone over the total.
Oregon State is 7-2 ATS after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 2-5 after rushing for less than 100 rushing yards and in November, 1-4 at home and after gaining more than 450 total yards, 1-5 against teams with winning road records, on fieldturf, and after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 0-4 in Pac 12 games, after allowing 450 total yards or more and overall. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in this series recently. The Beavers have gone 4-0-1 ATS against the Sun Devils in the last 5 games overall in the series. OSU is 5-2-1 ATS against ASU in the last 8 in Corvallis.
Oregon State has lost 4 straight games and has lost 3 home games. Still, this has trap game written all over it. ASU is coming off a huge impressive win over Notre Dame and has to travel to cold and rainy Corvallis in a late night game. The Sun Devils pull out a close game on the road but it won’t be easy.