Pac 12 College Football Betting: Washington Huskies at #14 Arizona Wildcats

Washington Huskies at #14 Arizona Wildcats
Arizona Stadium – Tucson, Arizona

Saturday, November 15, 2014, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: Arizona -9
Current Line: Arizona -10
Opening Total: 61 1/2
Current Total: 60 1/2
Opening Money Line: Arizona -330 / Washington +270
Current Money Line: Arizona -370 / Washington +305 

Arizona is a point favorite at home against Washington in a key Pac 12 game Saturday.
Arizona is a 10 point favorite at home against Washington in a key Pac 12 game Saturday.

Despite being the #14 team in the country, the 7-2 Arizona Wildcats are in fourth place in the Pac 12 South with a 4-2 record. The Wildcats are behind 5-1 Arizona State, 6-2 USC and 5-2 UCLA. Arizona hosts the 6-4 Washington Huskies in a key game Saturday. Washington is 2-4 in the Pac 12 North and also in fourth place behind 6-1 Oregon, 3-3 Stanford, and 3-5 Cal.

Washington leads the series 19-10-1 against Arizona, including 7-6-1 in Tucson. The home team has won six straight games in this series, including a 31-13 Washington win last season in Seattle.

Washington is coached by Chris Petersen. The Huskies have road wins at Hawaii 17-16, Cal  31-7 and Colorado 38-23, along with home wins over Eastern Michigan 59-52, Illinois 44-19 and Georgia State 45-14. Washington has home losses to Stanford 20-13, Arizona State 24-10 and last week against UCLA 44-30, plus a road loss at Oregon 45-20. Washington is 4-6 ATS and the total is 4-6 this season. The Huskies were 6 point underdogs against UCLA and the total was 53.

Arizona is coached by Rich Rodriguez. Arizona has losses at home to USC 28-26 and at UCLA 17-7. The Wildcats have home wins over UNLV 58-13, Nevada 35-28, Cal 49-45, and last week against Colorado 38-20, along with road wins at UTSA 26-23, Oregon 31-24, and Washington State 59-37. Arizona is 3-6 ATS and the total is 3-6 as well. The Wildcats were 18.5 point favorites against Colorado and the total was 69.

Washington is outscoring teams 31-26 this season. The Huskies are averaging 365 yards per game including 177 passing and 188 rushing yards. Washington is #98 in total offense and #110 in passing out of 128 FBS teams. On defense, the Huskies are allowing 416 yards per game including 278 passing and 138 rushing yards. Washington is #39 in rush defense but #112 in pass defense. The Huskies are +10 in turnovers with 20 takeaways. Washington is averaging 56 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 55. The Huskies are 66/168 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 80/183. Washington has forced 38 sacks and allowed 22. The Huskies are 31/35 scoring in the red zone with 20 touchdowns, and opponents are 33/43 with 19 touchdowns. Washington has 6 defensive and 2 special teams touchdowns this season.

Washington quarterback Cyler Miles was suspended for the opener at Hawaii and replaced by Jeff Lindquist. Miles returned against Eastern Washington, and has started every game except one. Miles missed the game against Arizona State with an ankle injury and was replaced by Troy Williams. Williams has passed Lindquist as the back-up. Miles has completed 65.5% of his passes for 1,404 yards with 12 touchdowns and 2 interception, along with 86 carries for 225 yards and 4 touchdowns. Lindquist threw for 162 yards and a touchdown against Hawaii. He also has 2 rushing touchdowns. Williams has thrown for 176 yards and 2 interceptions, and also has a rushing touchdown.

Running back Shaq Thompson has 61 carries for 456 yards and 2 touchdowns.   Lavon Coleman has 106 carries for 438 yards and a touchdown, plus 9 catches. He has missed the last 3 games with a shoulder injury but is not listed on the injury report this week.  Dwayne Washington has 70 carries for 272 yards and 4 touchdowns. John Ross has 17 catches for 371 yards and 4 touchdowns. Ross also has a kick off return for a touchdown. Jaydon Mickens has 39 catches for 331 yards and 2 touchdowns. DiAndre Campbell and Deontae Cooper will also get some catches.

Arizona is outscoring teams 37-26 this season. The Wildcats are #23 nationally in scoring. Arizona is #13 in total offense  averaging 505 yards per game including the 14th best passing attack at 314 yards per game . The rushing game is #46 out of 128 teams at 191 yards per game. On defense, the Wildcats are allowing 439 yards per game including 285 passing and 149 rushing yards per game. Arizona is #118 nationally in pass defense and #98 in total defense. The Wildcats are +7 in turnovers with 15 takeaways. Arizona is 79/174 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 61/156. Arizona averages 63 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 86. The Wildcats have forced 25 sacks and allowed 20. Arizona is 35/43 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns, and opponents are 26/29 with 18 touchdowns. Arizona has 2 special teams and one defensive touchdown this season.

Arizona freshman quarterback Anu Solomon has been very good this season. He has completed 59.5% of his passes for 2,816 yards with 25 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and he also has 87 carries for 304 yards. Running back Nick Wilson has 130 carries for 763 yards with 7 touchdowns, plus 11 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. Terris Jones-Grigsby has 91 carries for 474 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 11 catches. Receiver Cayleb Jones has 53 catches for 753 yards and 8 touchdowns. Austin Hill has 33 catches for 459 yards and 4 touchdowns. Samajie Grant, Trey Griffey and Davonte’ Neal will also get a lot of targets. Receiver Nate Phillips is out for the season with a foot injury. Five defensive players are questionable or out.

Washington is 6-2 ATS after failing to cover, 12-4-1 after passing for less than 170 yards, 12-5-1 after allowing more than 40 points, 3-9-1 after a double digit home loss, 3-10 against teams with winning home records, and 1-4 after allowing 280 passing yards or more. The over is 6-1 overall in this series and 4-1 in the last 5 games in Arizona in the series.

Arizona is 17-38 ATS after rushing for 200 yards or more, 2-5 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 3-8 in Pac 12 games, 7-19 in November, 2-6 overall, 1-5 against teams with winning records, 1-6 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards,  1-8 after a straight up win, 0-4 at home and 0-6 on grass. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in this series recently and the home team has covered the last 6 times.

Neither one of these defenses are very good allowing over 400 yards per game. I think this will be a high scoring game but I don’t think Washington has the firepower to keep up in a shootout. I think the Wildcats pull away late to win and cover.

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