College Football Betting Picks: #8 TCU Horned Frogs at #14 Oklahoma State Cowboys

#8 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at #14 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Boone Pickens Stadium – Stillwater, Oklahoma
Saturday, November 7, 2015, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: TCU -5
Current Line: TCU -5 1/2
Opening Total: 77
Current Total: 76 1/2
Opening Money Line: TCU -215 / Oklahoma State +185
Current Money Line: TCU -235 / Oklahoma State +195

TCU is a five point favorite against Oklahoma State on the road Saturday in a key Big 12 contest.
TCU is a five point favorite against Oklahoma State on the road Saturday in a key Big 12 contest.

The Big 12 has four teams in the top 15 of the initial college football playoff rankings but none higher than #6. This is because the league’s top four teams haven’t played each other yet and will have a grueling round robin in the month of November to decide the conference champion. It starts Saturday as the #8 TCU Horned Frogs travel to the #14 Oklahoma State Cowboys. Both teams are 8-0 overall and 5-0 in conference play. Baylor is also 8-0 and 5-0 in the Big 12. Oklahoma is also in the mix at 7-1 and 4-1 in conference. No other Big 12 team currently has a winning record except for 5-4 Texas Tech.

Oklahoma State leads the series 13-10-2 against TCU including 7-3 in Stillwater. TCU won last year in Fort Worth 42-9. The win snapped a three game losing streak for the Horned Frogs against the Cowboys. This series dated back to 1915.

TCU is coached by Gary Patterson. The Horned Frogs have road wins over Minnesota 23-17, Texas Tech 55-52, Kansas State 52-45 and Iowa State 45-21. TCU has home wins over Stephen F. Austin 70-7, SMU 56-37, Texas 50-7 and West Virginia 40-10 last Thursday.

TCU was a 12 point favorite against West Virginia and the total was 72.5. The Horned Frogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter. However, West Virginia scored 10 points to open the second quarter to pull within a touchdown. They would not score again as TCU scored the last 23 points of the game. The Horned Frogs had over 600 yards of total offense but had to settle for field goals too many times, much to the dismay of players who bet the over. TCU is 4-4 ATS and the total is 4-4 this season.

Oklahoma State is coached by Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have road wins over Central Michigan 24-13, Texas 30-27, West Virginia 33-26 in overtime, and last week at Texas Tech 70-53, along with home wins over Central Arkansas 32-8, UTSA 69-14, Kansas State 36-34 and Kansas 58-10.

OSU was a 2 point favorite against Texas Tech and the total was 77.5. Texas Tech led by 17 at three different times in the first half and would eventually take a 38-28 lead into the locker room. The Cowboys scored twice in the third to take a 42-38 lead into the fourth. The fourth quarter would feature a combined 43 points by the two teams. The Red Raiders briefly regained the lead early in the fourth but the Cowboys took an 11 point lead. A Texas Tech touchdown and two point conversion made it a three point game with just under five minutes left. However, the Cowboys would ice the game with two touchdowns, including a pick six with 6 seconds left. Each team also had a special teams touchdown during the course of the game.  The teams each had over 642 total yards, and Texas Tech had three of the four turnovers in the game. The Cowboys are 5-3 ATS and the total is 4-4 this season.

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TCU is outscoring teams 49-25 this season. The Horned Frogs are #2 in scoring nationally. TCU averages 616 yards per game, including 389 passing and 227 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs are in the top 4 nationally in total and passing offense, and #16 in rushing. On defense, TCU is allowing 389 yards per game, including 216 passing and 173 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs have forced 11 turnovers and have 12 of their own. TCU averages 82 penalty yards per game and opponents average 50 per game. The Horned Frogs are 60/112 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 49/145. TCU has forced 18 sacks and allowed 6 this season. The Frogs are 38/45 scoring in the red zone with 33 touchdowns. Opponents are 21/28 with 16 touchdowns. TCU has two defensive touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Trevone Boykin has completed 66.7% of his passes for 2,927 yards with 28 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He has also rushed for 524 yards on 88 carries with 6 touchdowns. Back-up Bram Kohlhausen has thrown for 135 yards with a touchdown.

Running back Aaron Green has 125 carries for 699 yards and 8 touchdowns, plus 6 catches and a touchdown. Trevorris Johnson has 36 carries for 229 yards. Kyle Hicks has 28 carries for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Receiver Josh Doctson has 71 catches for 1,250 yards and 13 touchdowns. KaVontae Turpin has 25 catches for 355 yards and 6 touchdowns. Kolby Listenbee has 19 catches for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns. Desmon White has 19 catches for 258 yards.  Shaun Nixon has 15 catches for 177 yards. Ty Slanina has 11 catches for 134 yards, but is out for the season with a broken collarbone. Four defensive players are listed as questionable or out.

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Oklahoma State is outscoring teams 44-23 this season. The Cowboys are #8 in points scored. OSU averages 502 yards per game including 352 passing and 151 rushing yards. The Cowboys are in the top 15 nationally in total and passing offense but #93 in rushing. On defense, Oklahoma State is allowing 357 total yards per game, including 219 passing and 139 rushing yards. The Cowboys are #35 in rush defense. OSU is +8 in turnovers with 19 takeaways. Oklahoma State averages 53 penalty yards per game and opponents average 77. The Cowboys are 59/122 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 54/133. OSU has forced 30 sacks and allowed 19 this season. The Cowboys are 38/40 scoring in the red zone with 27 touchdowns. Opponents are 19/23 with 15 touchdowns. The Cowboys have two defensive touchdowns along with two special teams touchdowns and have allowed two as well this season.

Quarterback Mason Rudolph has completed 63.9% of his passes for 2,482 yards with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and has a rushing touchdown.  J.W. Walsh has thrown for 296 yards with  nine touchdown passes and no interceptions, and has 35 carries for 194 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns.

Running back Chris Carson has 95 carries for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 8 catches. Rennie Childs has 60 carries for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 5 catches. Raymond Taylor has 23 carries for 193 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jeff Carr has 30 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver David Glidden has 38 catches for 628 yards and 3 touchdowns. Marcell Ateman has 24 catches for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns. James Washington has 31 catches for 588 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jalen McCleskey has 15 catches for 160 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Sheperd, Jeremy Seaton, Jhajuan Seales, and Austin Hayes will also get some catches. Five defensive players are listed on the injury report.

TCU is 7-1 ATS after gaining more than 450 total yards, 12-4 in Big 12 games, 9-3 against teams with winning records, 17-6 overall, 14-5 after a straight up win, 11-4 after passing for 280 yards or more, 8-3 after allowing less than 20 points, 10-4 after a cover, 7-3 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 2-5 in road games and on fieldturf, and 1-4 against teams with winning home records.

Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in Big 12 games, 5-1 after a straight up win, after a cover, against teams with winning records, after allowing more than 450 total yards, overall and on fieldturf, 8-2 in November, 6-2 after scoring more than 40 points, 9-4 after allowing more than 40 points, 35-16 after passing for more than 280 yards, 4-9 after gaining more than 450 total yards, and 2-5 after allowing more than 280 passing yards.

Oklahoma State has played a lot of close games this season but they are still undefeated. However, if they give up 17 straight points to open the game like they did last week at Texas Tech then this could get ugly. The Cowboys have arguably the best defense in the Big 12 but I don’t know if they can slow down Boykin and the high powered Frogs. I like TCU to win a close game in a shootout on the road.

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