After looking at the Top betting teams in the MLB, here is a look at the teams that have fared the worst for bettors so far in the 2010 season from a betting perspective and look at a team that might have some value the rest of the way. All dollar amounts are based on a $100 stake per game scale. You can view the updated betting results all season long on our MLB ATS standings page.
Baltimore Orioles (29-59 -$1700)
The Orioles have been the underdog in almost all of their games so far, and it turns out the odds makers got it right. Usually there is some sort of value to be found even in bad teams, but Baltimore has been mostly a team to stay away from in the first half of the season.
The Orioles showed some surprising grit in a four-game sweep of the Rangers, so don’t throw them under the bus just yet. However, if you decide to bet on the team, make sure you have some great research and a solid situation that values the investment.
Baltimore is eighth in the AL with a .259 batting average and hasn’t shown a lot of power. The team ranks ninth in the AL in homeruns, 11th in triples and 13th in doubles. They have been abysmal on the mound, with all five starters sporting an ERA of over 4.30. Supposed ace Jeremy Guthrie has only three wins and 10 losses with an ERA of 4.77, tied for second on the team.
Chicago Cubs (39-50 -$2400)
The Cubs have had a disappointing season and are in fourth place in the NL Central. Their bats have been quiet and their pitching has been far less than stellar. There have been problems on the team with players getting into fights, and former ace Carlos Zambrano has made a fool of himself.
Zambrano got himself suspended by throwing a crazy tamper tantrum in the dugout and seems to be blaming everybody else. Maybe he should look at his own numbers first and realize that a 5.66 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP doesn’t put him in a position to complain.
Aramis Ramirez was the clean-up hitter on opening day, but he is hitting a dismal .207 and can’t seem to get on base. His .268 on-base-percentage is by far the worst in the starting lineup. Former triple crown candidate Derrek Lee isn’t doing much better. He is hitting .233 and – like Ramirez – has only 10 homeruns, far off the pace of the league’s best.
The Cubs’ big name and their large number of die hard supporters will still lead to many people backing them. Keep looking at their lines and betting against them for great value.
Seattle Mariners (35-53 -$2100)
The Mariners started into the season among the favorites to win the AL West. Some experts even predicted them to win the AL pennant behind what was supposed to be a strong defense and great pitching. Now they’re at the bottom of the division and just dealt Cliff Lee to the Rangers.
The team ranks only 9th out of 14 AL teams in fielding percentage and has committed 61 errors. Ace Felix Hernandez has done his job with a 2.88 ERA, four complete games (including one shutout), and 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he hasn’t gotten the run-support he needed and has only seven wins and five losses.
Fifth starter Ryan Rowland-Smith is almost always worth betting against, as he has amassed nine losses and just one win. The offense is betting a league-low .238 and has totaled only 57 homeruns, 13th in the AL.
The one good thing? You will always get a great return for betting on the Mariners, so if you have a strong situation for the team, they are definitely worth a look.
Milwaukee Brewers (40-49 -$1150)
The Brewers haven’t done well for bettors so far this season despite hitting a lot of homeruns. Prince Fielder (20) and Corey Hart (21) lead the team in big shots, and the Brewers hitters have combined for 110 homeruns, food for first in the NL and third in the majors.
Their team batting average (.260) hasn’t been good enough to provide enough run-support for a struggling pitching staff. The Brewers’ hurlers have combined for a 4.86 team ERA that ranks 14th out of 16 NL teams.
Milwaukee looks like it is ready to give up on the season and has put its three best hitters, Fielder, Hart, and Rickie Weeks on the table for a trade. Expect the Brewers to lose more games in the second half of the season, but check for value behind the remaining big bats. Ryan Braun and Casez McGehee both have 13 homeruns and help the team to some wins.
Team To Fade in the 2nd half of the season
Texas Rangers (50-38 -$300)
The Rangers have been average for bettors backing them so far, and they have done it with their bats. Texas has two players with 20+ homeruns in Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. Mike Young and Nelson Cruz have racked up double-digit homeruns as well, and the Rangers rank second in team batting average in the AL (.278).
They didn’t have a superior starter in the first half, but four pitchers in the rotation have at least five wins. The addition of Cliff Lee (2.64 ERA, 8 Wins) will give them the ace they need to make a serious run in the AL playoffs.
Fifth starter Tommy Hunter has yet to lose a game and holds the best ERA on the team at 2.34. The bullpen has been strong, and the Rangers lead the AL in saves with 28. The price for the Rangers has gone up due to their first half success, and the addition of Lee will probably keep the numbers rising. Texas showed signs of wearing down this past week losing 4 in a row as big chalk to the Orioles. With a tired bullpen and young pitching staff keep looking for value fading the money lines and run lines for Texas the rest of the way.
Aussie Ryan Rowland-Smith is ready for some wins. As we say Down Under, have a punt on him for a few starts in a row, and he’ll pay some decent bucks. A pitcher with several losses is always getting closer to a win. Pick it and you’ll make some money! Nicholas R.W. Henning – Australian Baseball Author
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