ACC College Football Weekly Picks: Duke Blue Devils at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Duke at Wake Forest

Time: 6 PM CST, Sat

Spread: WAKE -7.5

Total: 49.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 7-3, but it is just 3-3 in ACC play as it hosts the visiting Duke Blue Devils Saturday evening at 6 PM (CST) on the ACC Network. The over/under is set at 49.5 points, and Wake is 7.5-point favorites in the game.

WAKE

Wake Forest enters this week as losers of its last two, falling the past two weeks to Clemson and Virginia Tech. It will try to close the season strong with soft games against Duke and Syracuse next week. The Deacons have allowed 28.5 points per game this season while scoring 32.4, and it has got the work done offensively on the strength of its pass offense which generates 286.8 yards per game while ranking No. 23 nationally.

Wake quarterback Jamie Newman has put together a very strong season. He has thrown for 2,338 yards with 22 touchdowns and just nine interceptions, compiling a passer rating of 148.3. Newman has also been pretty effective via the rush. He leads the team in attempts (122), and has 320 yards and a team-best five rushing touchdowns. The lead running backs have combined for 175 attempts, 841 yards and six touchdowns. Wake averages just 3.7 yards-per-carry as a team, though.

Sage Surratt has been sensational as Wake’s top receiver. He has 66 catches for 1,001 yards and 11 of the team’s 25 receiving touchdowns. Kendall Hinton and Scotty Washington each have topped 600 yards, as well. Tight end Jack Freudenthal ranks No. 4 in yardage (212) with 25 catches, while backup tight end Brandon Chapman has eight more catches for 75 yards. The Deacons do not feature running backs often in receiving sets, with the most catches from a backfield participant being Cade Carney and Christian Beal-Smith’s 12 combined catches for 49 yards between them.

DUKE

Duke is 4-6 on the year, but it is just 2-4 in ACC play. It has lost its last four conference games and last four overall, with losses coming to Virginia, North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Syracuse.

Duke’s defense has not been stingy enough, nor has its offense been that dominant this season. The Blue Devils are allowing 29.4 per game while scoring 25.1, with a differential of -4.3 points. The pass offense ranks outside the top-100 and its rush attack is mediocre as well at just 154.6 per game. Duke does not do anything at all that well this season, in reality.

The Blue Devils have turned to Quentin Harris for most of its offense, with rather mixed results. He has thrown for 1,769 yards but at just under 60 percent with 10 interceptions to his 14 touchdowns. Harris has rushed for 422 yards and a team-best six touchdowns, but he averages just 3.4 yards-per-carry. Lead rusher Deon Jackson has 151 attempts at just 3.8 yards per for 571 yards and five touchdowns on the season. Duke’s top-three receivers all total better than 300 yards on the year, with tight end Noah Gray having caught 42 passes for 305 yards and Aaron Young and Jalon Calhoun being the top-two wide receivers. Duke has totaled 14 rushing touchdowns and 16 passing touchdowns this season.

Kicker AJ Reed has been rock solid. He is 28 of 28 on PATs and 11 of 13 on field goals, with both of his misses coming from beyond the 40-yard line. He is 2 of 2 from beyond midfield, having connected on a 50-yard attempt and a 51-yard attempt.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

Duke
  • Blue Devils are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games on fieldturf.
  • Blue Devils are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Blue Devils are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.
  • Blue Devils are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
  • Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
  • Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
  • Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Wake Forest
  • Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Demon Deacons are 6-2-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Demon Deacons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Demon Deacons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Demon Deacons are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
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