Pac 12 College Football Picks: (6) Oregon Ducks at Arizona State Sun Devils

Big South Tournament

#6 Oregon at Arizona State

Time: 6 PM CST Saturday

Spread: ORE -14

Total: 52.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Oregon Ducks are 9-1 and have not lost since its season opener against a Then-No. 16 Auburn team. Oregon is 7-0 in conference play as it travels to face Arizona State as two-touchdown favorites. The over/under is set at 52.5 points according to NCAA football oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes, and the game will kickoff at 6:30 PM (CST) on ABC Saturday.

ORE

Oregon has largely dominated its Pac-12 competition with its perfect record. It did have a close call four weeks ago against a ranked Washington team, winning by just four, but it has sported a +23 point differential on the season while holding its opponents to just 14.8 points per game. Oregon’s pass offense ranks No. 31 at 280.6 yards per game while it has a top-50 rush offense, as well, generating nearly 180 yards per game via the rush.

The Ducks have managed to get a tremendous season out of quarterback James Herbert. He has thrown for 2,662 yards at nearly a 70 percent passing clip with 28 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Herbert is not a good ball carrier (36 attempts totaling -12 yards), but his arm is very trustworthy and accurate. His top receivers have been Johnny Johnson III, Jaylon Redd, and tight end Jacob Breeland. All three have 396 yards or more on the season, with Johnson leading the team in yardage (485) and Redd leading in total catches (42). Redd also leads the team in receiving touchdowns with seven, while Breeland ranks No. 2 with six. Spencer Webb has caught 16 passes and three touchdowns as the backup tight end. Oregon has 10 players with at least 100 receiving yards on the season.

CJ Verdell and Travis Dye have been great as the RB1/2. Verdell has 814 yards on 129 attempts and Dye has 493 yards on 85. Verdell has five rushing touchdowns, while Dye has not scored yet this season. Cyrus Habibi Like has taken a lot of those red-zone rushers as Oregon’s specialist, and he leads the team in TD rushes (7) despite ranking No. 3 in carries.

AZ ST

Arizona State is 5-5 on the year with a 2-5 mark in Pac 12 play. It is coming off four-straight losses to Utah, UCLA, USC, and Oregon State.

Arizona State has a win differential of +1.2 points this season, and it mostly gets it done with a pretty decent pass offense that generates 252.8 yards per game, ranking No. 47. It is a poor rushing team, ranking in the bottom of FBS teams at just 115.4 yards per game (No. 120).

The Sun Devils offense has largely been a product of Jaylen Daniels. He has thrown for 2,236 yards on 61.4 percent passing with 14 TDs and just two interceptions. He is the No. 2 rusher with 93 carries for 247 yards, while lead rusher Eno Benjamin has 188 of the team’s 326 total attempts for 801 yards. Benjamin leads in touchdowns with eight, and Daniels has scored the other three for the team this year.

The top wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has done a ton of damage with 53 catches and 964 yards both leading the team, as well as his seven touchdowns. Arizona State has caught 18 TDs this year with just 11 coming via the rush, and its attack while rather predictable is moderately effective. It will need to recruit a top-flight running back and some defensive playmakers to make the steps past being a mere .500 team next year.

ATS TRENDS (C/O Covers):

Oregon
  • Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
  • Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
  • Ducks are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.
  • Ducks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
  • Ducks are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Ducks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Arizona State
  • Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Sun Devils are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Sun Devils are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
  • Sun Devils are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
  • Sun Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
  • Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Sun Devils are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
  • Sun Devils are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
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