AAC Football Picks, Trends: (25) SMU Mustangs at (23) Navy Midshipmen

(Photo Credit: Navy Football, 2012)

#25 SMU at #23 Navy

Time: 2 PM CST, Sat

Spread: NAV -3.5

Total: 67

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Navy Midshipmen enter the week 7-2 and are coming off a 20-52 loss to Notre Dame. The Midshipmen will host SMU as 3.5-point favorites at 2 PM CST Saturday on CBS. The over/under for the game is set at 67 total points according to NCAA football oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.

NAVY

Navy has only lost to Memphis and Notre Dame this season, and given that Memphis leads the AAC-West and Notre Dame is an independent- ranked beast of its own, that is not too shabby for the Midshipmen. Navy has done it in its typical fashion again this season: Defense–and rush, rush, rush.

Navy ranks No. 1 in the nation with 349.3 rushing yards per game, while it manages just 96 per game on its (really) rare pass plays. With a quarterback that rushes as well as Malcolm Perry, there is little need to throw the football. Perry has managed 758 passing yards, but he has nearly 1.2k rushing yards and 16 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.4 yards-per-carry on his 182 attempts. No. 1 running back Nelson Smith averages just under five per, with his seven touchdowns and 512 yards. Navy averages 5.9 yards-per-carry as a team, and it has featured 18 players this season with at least one rush.

The top receiver is Mychal Cooper. He has 314 yards on 12 catches and two touchdowns. CJ Williams has six catches and two touchdowns. Navy has scored just seven receiving touchdowns while having scored its other 37 via the rush.

SMU

SMU is 9-1 on the season, with its lone loss coming two weeks ago to a ranked, conference-leading Memphis Tigers team. The Mustangs are trailing Memphis due to that tiebreaker, with both teams having fared 5-1 in AAC play.

SMU has been an offensive juggernaut, which has offset its somewhat poor defense. While the Mustangs do allow 32.7 per game, it scores 45.1, ranking in the top-30 offenses in college football. The passing attack is top-10 (No. 7) and the rush attack is top-40 (No. 36). The Mustangs have a very balanced and dangerous offense.

The Mustangs’ quarterback Shane Buechele has thrown for 3,195 yards with 28 touchdowns and eight INTs. He has rushed for another 63 yards on 50 carries with two touchdowns. The Mustangs top rushers have been Xavier Jones and Ke’Mon Freeman. Jones leads the team in carries (196), yards (1,063) and touchdowns (18). TJ McDaniels leads in yards-per-carry (6.0), but he has just 37 attempts, and he has scored three touchdowns.

The top wideout has been James Proche. He has a team-best 88 catches for 1,0008 yards and a team-best 12 touchdowns. Kyle Granson is the No. 3 receiver in yardage and catches, but he is No. 2 in touchdowns as a major red-zone target with his eight TD catches. SMU has 30 rushing touchdowns and 28 passing touchdowns this season.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

Southern Methodist
  • Mustangs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Mustangs are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Mustangs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Mustangs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Mustangs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Mustangs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
  • Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Navy
  • Midshipmen are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
  • Midshipmen are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
  • Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
  • Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
  • Midshipmen are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
  • Midshipmen are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
  • Midshipmen are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
  • Midshipmen are 3-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Midshipmen are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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