NCAA Football Big-12 Odds, Picks: (19) Texas Longhorns at (14) Baylor Bears

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#19 Texas at #14 Baylor

Time: 2 PM CST, Sat

Spread: BAY -5.5

Total: 58.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Baylor Bears are 9-1 and in a tie with Oklahoma for the lead of the Big-12. It has a 6-1 mark in conference play as it hosts visiting Texas as 5.5-point favorites. The game will kick off Saturday at 2 PM CST on FS1. College football oddsmakers at 5dimes have set the point total at 58.5 points.

BAY

Baylor suffered its first loss of the season last week as it fell 31-34 to a No. 10 ranked Oklahoma squad. The Bears led 31-10 at the half but gave up 24 second-half points while failing to score itself. Charlie Brewer completed 18 of 29 for 194 yards and two touchdowns, but he did throw an interception, and JaMycal Hasty fumbled it for a loss. Baylor fumbled two other times, but it managed to recover those. The Bears gained 113 yards on the ground, paced by Brewer. He rushed from the pocket for 65 yards on 17 carries and scored the only two rushing touchdowns. Hasty had three carries for 42 yards and the aforementioned fumble.

Denzel Mims led all receivers with six catches for 92 yards and both of the receiving touchdowns.

Baylor fell from No. 13 to No. 14 in the AP rankings with the loss.

The Bears have got a tremendous season from Brewer overall. He has completed 66.8 percent of his looks for 2,532 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just five interceptions while totaling a passer rating of 156.6. Brewer has also rushed 112 times (a team-high) for 276 yards and a team-best nine touchdowns. The No. 1 and No. 2 running backs Jake Lovett and Hasty have each rushed for 537 and 502 yards, respectively, and they have four touchdowns apiece. Baylor averages five yards-per-carry as a team.

The Bears have got most of its receiving production from its top-two: Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton. Mims leads the team in total catches (50), yardage (767) and TDs (10). Mims is No. 2 in all categories and tied with three touchdowns with AJ Sneed. The Bears do feature Hasty and Ebner on occasion in pass plays, with the two backfield performers combining for 31 catches and 284 yards between them.

TEX

Texas is 6-4 and 4-3 in Big-12 play. It enters as losers of three of its last five, including last week’s 21-23 loss to Iowa State. The Longhorns are 0-2 against AP ranked teams this season as it faces off against one this week.

Texas has been mediocre defensively, but its passing offense has helped make up for it. Texas averages over 300 passing yards per game, ranking No. 15 nationally, and helping it tally 35.9 points per game while posting a win differential of +6 points.

Longhorns’ QB Sam Ehlinger has been dynamic. He has 2,914 yards with 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions with a passer rating of over 150. He also leads the team in rush attempts (123) and is No. 3 in rushing yardage (428) and No. 2 in touchdowns (5). Keaontay Ingram leads the team with 642 yards and six touchdowns.

Texas’ top receiver Devin Duvernay has done it all. He has 87 catches for over 1k yards and seven touchdowns this season. No. 2 wideout Collin Johnson has less than half as many catches (35) and yardage (497). Brennan Eagles has just 25 catches for 472 yards, but he is No. 2 in touchdowns with six.

The Longhorns have totaled 27 rushing touchdowns on the season.

ATS TRENDS (C/O Covers):

Texas
  • Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Longhorns are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Longhorns are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
  • Longhorns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Baylor
  • Bears are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
  • Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
  • Bears are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
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