Week 4 ACC College Football Picks: Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers

College Football Betting

Louisville at Virginia
Time: 11:30 AM CT
Spread: VA -4.5
Total: 55

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Virginia Cavaliers won 45-31 in week 3 over Ohio, and this week Virginia will welcome ACC rival Louisville as 4.5-point favorites over the Cardinals. The game will air at 11:30 AM CT on local TV and has an over/under of 55 points according to college football oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.

UVA

Virginia is 2-1 after winning Weeks 1 and 3 against Ohio, with a 20-16 loss to Indiana sandwiched between. The Cavaliers’ quarterback Bryce Perkins has thrown 50 of 78 (64 percent) for 670 yards with seven TDs and one interception. His passer rating is 163.3. Perkins’ top target has been Olamide Zaccheaus, who has caught 20 passes (a team high) for 363 yards with four TD receptions on the season. Hasise Dubois has caught 13 passes for 154 yards.

No other receiver has caught more than six passes or 62 yards outside of that tandem. The backfield has been led by Jordan Ellis, who has rushed for 380 yards on 51 carries with five TDs, including a 75-yard TD rush. Ellis averages 7.5 yards-per-carry and the Cavaliers are good for 5.6 yards-per-carry as a team.

Perkins has had success rushing from the pocket, too, with 239 yards on 48 carries and two TDs. Ellis and Perkins are the only significant rushers for the Cavaliers, whose offense basically relies upon three or four talents at the skill positions, but it is bolstered by a strong OL.

Louisville

Louisville has won two straight after opening its season with a 51-14 loss to No.1 Alabama. The Cardinals have rebounded since to knock off Indiana State 31-7 and last week won 20-17 over Western Kentucky. Louisville is not as strong in recent seasons, and the program is rebuilding after losing significant talent (Lamar Jackson) to the NFL.

The Cardinals now turn to Jawon Pass, who has completed just 50 percent of his passes for 341 yards and has twice as many INTs (4) as TDs (2). His passer rating is under 100. Oh, how far have the Cardinals fallen since bidding adieu to Jackson? Malik Cunningham has been nice as a running back, but he is not getting a lot of support with no other major rushers seeing that many looks. Cunningham averages 5.5 yards per carry, while Dae Williams averages just 3.4 yards per but leads the team in TD rushes with two.

Pass has rushed 15 times for seven yards, hardly the threat that Jackson was as a rushing quarterback. Wide receivers Jaylen Smith and Seth Dawkins have each caught six passes for 98 and 96 yards on the season, respectively, but only Smith boasts a receiving TD thus far.

ATS TRENDS:

Louisville
  • Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
  • Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
  • Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
  • Cardinals are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
  • Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Virginia
  • Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
  • Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
  • Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Cavaliers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
  • Cavaliers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
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