Week 3 NCAA Football Picks ATS: N.C. State Wolfpack at West Virginia Mountaineers

NC State at West Virginia

Time: 11 AM CST, Saturday

Spread: NCST -7

Total: 48

Odds c/o 5dimes

The NC State Wolfpack has started off hot. It won week 1 over Eastern Carolina 34-6 and took care of business with a 41-0 win last week over Western Carolina. Week 3 it will face its biggest test thus far in the Virginia Cavaliers, but the Wolfpack is still a full TD favored by NCAA football oddsmakers. The game will kick off at 11 AM CST on FS1, and the over/under is set at 48 points according to 5dimes.

NC ST

So far for NC State quarterback Matthew McKay is fulfilling expectations. He has averaged 254 passing yards per game through two, with a 66.2 percent completion ratio, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. His passer rating is 142.0. So far McKay’s top two targets have fared well. Tabari Hines has seven catches for 110 yards and a TD, awhile Emeka Emezie has nine catches for 102 yards.

Lead running back Zonovan Knight has been consistently sensational, as well. Knight has rushed 27 times for 161 yards (6 yards per) and has three rushing TDs already. Knight has caught just one pass for two yards.

No. 2 back Jordan Houston has 108 rushing yards and three receptions. Hines has rushed twice as a wide receiver for a total of 47 yards. Everything is clicking quite well for NC State, and this could be a big year for the program, but its real tests begin this week and with the remainder of its schedule. It passed the easy part with flying colors, needless to say even.

W VA

The West Virginia Mountaineers defeated James Madison 20-13 in Week 1, and any concerns of not having handled that opponent better were validated with its 7-38 week 2 loss to Missouri. The Mountaineers came down to earth hard against the Tigers, scoring just one touchdown in the game’s final quarter after having already allowed 31 points just in the first half.

Austin Kendall was not horrible overall. But he had two costly picks. The WV QB threw 15 of 25 for 137 yards and a touchdown, but he also averaged just 5.5 yards per reception. The backfield was helpless to bail him out, averaging less than a yards-per-carry on 32 attempts. Lead back Adam Sinkfeld rushed nine times for 27 yards, and Tevin Bush had 15 yards on three carries, but no running play resulted in more than nine yards, and that is a major source of concern considering Kendall’s struggles with the passing game.

George Campbell caught the lone TD pass and one other reception, leading the team with 59 yards. Sam Jones caught five passes but averaged just seven yards per catch, though he did have a long-catch of 16 yards. Overall, the Mountaineers just had far too much trouble with a merely decent Mizzou team, and that lends some support to the notion that it loses this week by more than the 7-point spread set by NCAA football oddsmakers.

73 percent of bettors at Covers are expecting NC State to cover. Given its 4-0 ATS mark against Big Ten teams the last four games, this accords with that logic.

ATS TRENDS

NC State
  • Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big 12.
  • Wolfpack are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
  • Wolfpack are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf.
  • Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Wolfpack are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Wolfpack are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Wolfpack are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
West Virginia
  • Mountaineers are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
  • Mountaineers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Mountaineers are 3-1-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Mountaineers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Mountaineers are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
  • Mountaineers are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Mountaineers are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Mountaineers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Mountaineers are 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
  • Mountaineers are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Mountaineers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC.
  • Mountaineers are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

OU TRENDS

NC State
  • Over is 4-1 in Wolfpack last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-2 in Wolfpack last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 8-3 in Wolfpack last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 road games.
  • Under is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 games in September.
  • Under is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 games on fieldturf.
West Virginia
  • Under is 4-0-1 in Mountaineers last 5 vs. ACC.
  • Under is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 non-conference games.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Mountaineers last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 8-3 in Mountaineers last 11 games following a straight up loss.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Mountaineers last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 10-4 in Mountaineers last 14 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
  • Under is 47-20 in Mountaineers last 67 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 7-3-1 in Mountaineers last 11 games in September.
  • Under is 14-6 in Mountaineers last 20 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 16-7-1 in Mountaineers last 24 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
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