Week 3 NCAA Football Picks ATS: Kansas State Wildcats at (23) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Big South Tournament

Kansas State at (23) Mississippi State

Time: 11 AM CST, Saturday

Spread: MISS -8

Total: 48

Odds c/o 5dimes

The K-State Wildcats have started its season 2-0 after knocking off Nichols State and Bowling Green State in Weeks 1 and 2. Week 3 brings a much bigger challenge with an actual FBS opponent in Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 8-point favorites over the visiting Wildcats in a game that will kick off at 11 AM CST Saturday on ESPN. The over/under is set at 48 points according to college football oddsmakers at 5dimes.

K ST.

Kansas State dominated both its weak opponents to begin the season, and inflated statistics abound its roster. Skylar Thompson has thrown 74.3 percent for completion with three TDs and a 189.7 passer rating. James Gilbert is averaging 109 yards per game, and Jordon Brown has rushed for another 113 total yards through two weeks.

Lead wide receiver Malik Knowles has 125 receiving yards on just eight catches with two TDs already, and Dalton Schoen has four catches for 77 yards. The Wildcats have had almost no issues, but nor should it have had any with such inferior opponents. The Bulldogs will represent a real challenge, though the spread is somewhat difficult to gauge simply because K-State has been great against very weak opponents. The over/under makes for a much more palatable bet in the case of these teams colliding.

MISS ST.

Mississippi State is 2-0 after knocking off Louisiana and Southern Mississippi in Weeks 1 and 2. The Bulldogs defeated Southern Miss 38-15 last week, and it did most of its damage via the rush while still having a pretty balanced attack. Tommy Stevens and Garrett Shrader split time at QB, with each doing quite well. Stevens completed 9 of 10 for 105 yards and a pair of TDs, while Shrader added another 71 yards on 7 of 11 passing.

The backfield was led by Kylin Hill’s 123 yards on 14 carries, and Hill managed one of three Bulldogs’ rushing touchdowns. The wealth at wide receiver was spread out, with Osiris Mitchell’s 46 yards (two catches) leading the way. Seven Bulldogs caught for at least 10-yards in the game though. The Bulldogs will look to employ similar balance against a tougher K-State defense. This game could be much closer than the spread and go right down to the wire, but the respective strengths of both teams still seem exaggerated given both programs faced non-FBS opponents to begin their respective seasons in both Weeks 1 and 2.

ATS TRENDS (c/o Covers)

Kansas State
  • Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Wildcats are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
  • Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Wildcats are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
  • Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Mississippi State
  • Bulldogs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
  • Bulldogs are 24-6 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
  • Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Bulldogs are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games in September.

OU TRENDS (c/o Covers)

Kansas State
  • Under is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-1 in Wildcats last 8 games in September.
  • Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-2 in Wildcats last 9 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 8-3 in Wildcats last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 8-3 in Wildcats last 11 games following a ATS win.
  • Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 non-conference games.
  • Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 vs. SEC.
  • Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 11-5 in Wildcats last 16 games overall.
Mississippi State
  • Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games following a ATS win.
  • Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 non-conference games.
  • Under is 7-2 in Bulldogs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 19-7 in Bulldogs last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 8-3 in Bulldogs last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
  • Under is 8-3 in Bulldogs last 11 games on grass.
  • Under is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 11-5 in Bulldogs last 16 home games.
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