Week 3 College Football Picks: Virginia Cavaliers at Connecticut Huskies

Ron Johnson has 98 yards and three rushing touchdowns through UConn's first two contests.
Ron Johnson has 98 yards and three rushing touchdowns through UConn’s first two contests.

Virginia-UConn
Time: 1:30 PM ET
Spread: UCON -4
M/L: UCON -185, VIR +160
Total: 48.5

Betting odds c/o 5dimes

The Virginia Cavaliers are 0-2 after falling 37-20 to Richmond in Week 1 and 44-26 to Oregon in Week 2. In the Week 2 loss, QB Kurt Benkert threw 20 of 39 for 193 yards and two TDs, but he had two interceptions and averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt.

Benkert also struggled to rush the football, coming up -27 yards on nine attempts. The Cavaliers did rush for 193 yards as a team, with Albert Reid accounting for 126 of that on 15 carries with one of Virginia’s two rushing TDs. Oregon went fairly ballistic on Virginia’s defense, passing for 331 yards and rushing for 301.

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Benkert has been good at times this season, but the overall picture is mediocre at best. He had a pick in Week 1, too, giving him three on the season and a per-pass average of just 6.26 yards per attempt. His best two targets have been Olamide Zaccheaus and Doni Dowling. Both have caught eight passes on the year, and each have a TD to their name. Keeon Johnson leads the team in total receptions with 11, and he also has two TDs on the year.

Reid has been a workhorse in the backfield with 21 carries for 154 yards over the first two games. Taquan Mizzell also has rushed for 55 yards, but it has taken him 17 carries with just a 3.2 yard per attempt average. Kicker Dylan Sims has yet to attempt a field goal and has already missed 1 of his 5 extra point attempts.

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UConn lost 28-24 to Navy in Week 2 after having knocked off Maine in Week 1. The 1-1 Huskies rallied after trailing 21-7 at the half. Bryant Shirreffs threw 23 of 26 for 239 yards and a TD. He also rushed another 32 yards on 13 carries, as UConn managed just 90 rushing yards a a team. Ron Johnson rushed for 33 yards on 10 carries, and Arkeel Newsmen was ineffective with just 13 yards on nine carries.

Shirreffs has thrown for 401 yards on the season at a 79.6 percent completion ratio with a TD. His passer rating is 155.1, and his top passing target is Noel Thomas. Thomas has 20 catches through two games for a total of 186 yards and a TD, the result of a 34-yard pass play. Hergy Mayala has caught five passes for 68 yards.

Huskies kicker Bobby Puyol is 2 of 2 on field goals and 6 of 6 on extra points. His long field goal so far of the two was 38-yards.

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ATS TRENDS

Virginia
  • Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
  • Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Connecticut
  • Huskies are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
  • Huskies are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games on grass.
  • Huskies are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up loss.
  • Huskies are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS loss.
  • Huskies are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
  • Huskies are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.
  • Huskies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Huskies are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Huskies are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games in September.
  • Huskies are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Huskies are 4-15-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

OU TRENDS

Virginia
  • Over is 7-1-1 in Cavaliers last 9 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Cavaliers last 6 road games.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games on grass.
  • Over is 9-3-1 in Cavaliers last 13 non-conference games.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games in September.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in Cavaliers last 8 games overall.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Cavaliers last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Connecticut
  • Under is 9-0 in Huskies last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in Huskies last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 non-conference games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 games following a straight up loss.
  • Over is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Under is 6-2 in Huskies last 8 games overall.
  • Under is 6-2 in Huskies last 8 games in September.
  • Under is 5-2 in Huskies last 7 home games.
  • Under is 7-3 in Huskies last 10 games on grass.
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