Thursday Night NCAA Football Picks: Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers

Big South Tournament

Navy at Memphis

Time: Thursday, 7 PM CST

Spread: MEM -10.5

Total: 55

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Navy Midshipmen are 2-0 after victories over Holy Cross and Eastern Carolina. Now, the Midshipmen face its first real test in the Memphis Tigers. Memphis is 10.5-point favorites on its home field, where the over/under is set at 55 points according to NCAA football oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes. The game will air at 7 PM CST Thursday on ESPN.

NAVY

Navy’s M.O. is still more or less the same, to rush nearly every play, but it has been successful putting the ball in the air a little more this year. Quarterback Malcolm Perry is 11 of 16 on throws, for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Perry is also the top rusher. He has 184 total yards rushing on 34 attempts and a team-high five rushing touchdowns.

No. 2 option Nelson Smith has rushed for 148 yards on 29 carries with three TDs. CJ Williams is the third 100-plus yard rusher at this point, with 102 on 12 carries and a TD. The Midshipmen average an outstanding 5.7 yards-per-carry and have scored 10 of its 12 TDs via the rush. CJ Williams has done most of the damage at wide receiver with his 117 yards on three (just three!) catches. Williams averages 39 yards-per-catch and has a long-catch of 80 yards. Navy can air it out, but it mostly chooses not to. Will that plan differ much against Memphis? We will see.

MEM

The Memphis Tigers are 3-0 after knocking off Mississippi, Southern, and South Alabama Weeks 1 through 3. This week the Tigers face the Midshipmen in what should be its most-close affair thus far this season.

The Tigers have been pretty pleased with the play of quarterback Brady White. He has thrown for 718 yards at a 72 percent clip with five TDs and just two INTs. His passer rating is 173.3. White is not much of a threat on the ground, having rushed eight times for a total loss of 10-yards. His top receivers have been Damonte Coxie, Joey Magnifico, and Kedarian Jones. Coxie leads the team in catches (15) and yardage (237) but he has yet to score a TD.

Magnifico has caught just four passes but is second in yardage with 132 and 33 yards-per-reception (a team-best). Jones has caught six passes for 106 yards and a TD. Antonio Gibson has caught just three passes but two of those were for TDs. The Tigers have five receiving touchdowns and a 13.1 yard-per-catch average.

Kicker Riley Patterson has been sensational with 4 of 4 field goal kicking and 12 of 13 PATs. His long field goal of 49-yards is his only attempt beyond the 40, but he has been perfect and is a great option for the Tigers when it gets anywhere within mid-field.

ATS TRENDS (C/O COVERS):

Navy
  • Midshipmen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
  • Midshipmen are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
  • Midshipmen are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Midshipmen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
  • Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
  • Midshipmen are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Midshipmen are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games in September.
  • Midshipmen are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
  • Midshipmen are 2-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Memphis
  • Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
  • Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
  • Tigers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a bye week.
  • Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
  • Tigers are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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