Thursday MLB Preview – Rockies at Mets

The Mets send their ace to the hill in trying to capture a three-game series from the Rockies at Citi Field.

Colorado Rockies at New York Mets

Colorado picked up a 6-2 victory in the second game of this series over the Mets at Citi Field.  The club will be looking to pick up its first road series win over today’s opponent in more than eight years.  The Rockies are 25-17 in games against left-handed starters this season (+500), after posing a 27-26 mark in 2009.  Offensively, the team has 162 RBIs versus southpaws, which is the most in the National League.  The lineup is being led by outfielder Carlos Gonzalez having the second-most extra-base hits since the All-Star break in the league (16) and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki batting .375 with one home run and 12 RBIs in 14 games since returning from the disabled list.  Colorado is a dismal 4-11 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 (-560) and the total in those games stands at 6-9 O/U in that span.

Rockies starting pitcher Jason Hammel is 8-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 20 starts this season and the club has won his last two outings overall.  In those starts, he has allowed seven runs and nine hits over 13.1 innings of work.  The right-hander has a 2-5 record and 5.70 ERA in nine road starts, but has managed to strike out 47 batters in 53.2 frames.  He has made just three daytime starts, posting a 1-1 mark and 4.00 ERA.  Hammel will be facing the Mets for just the second time in his career, as he allowed five runs and seven hits in just 1.1 innings against them on July 30, 2009 at Citi Field.

New York dropped to 3-6 in August and could be without closer Francisco Rodriguez for some time, as he was charged with third-degree assault late Wednesday night.  “There was an incident at the ballpark,” Mets representative Jay Horwitz stated.  The team has also received little contribution from third baseman David Wright, who went 0-for-4 last night and is mired in a 2-for-33 slump in his last nine games.  Offensively, the Mets are hitting .216 with 75 runs scored in 25 games since the All-Star break. The club is 8-2 at home when the total is 7 or less (+590) and the total is 4-5 O/U in those contests.  New York offers little betting appeal from a daytime aspect, posting a 16-15 record this season (-130) and 73-65 mark the last three years (+30).

Mets starting pitcher Johan Santana is 9-6 with a 3.06 ERA in 24 starts this season and is coming off a 1-0 road victory over the Phillies.  With that start, he bounced back from allowing 11 runs and 22 hits in his previous 12.2 innings.  He is a solid 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA in 11 home starts, surrendering just two home runs in 73 frames.  The left-hander will take to the mound for his 11th daytime start, posting a 2-4 record and 3.26 ERA compared to a 7-2 mark with a 2.92 ERA at night.  Santana will be making just his second lifetime appearance versus the Rockies, tossing seven shutout innings and striking out eight against Hammel last year.  He is an incredible 63-20 with a 2.76 ERA in 135 appearances (111 starts) after the All-Star break in his career.

Bettors will be cautious in playing the Rockies with a 4-11 mark as a road underdog +125 to +150 this season and 23-40 in this situation the last three years (-900).  New York fails to impress with a 3-4 record as a home favorite of -150 to 175 in 2010 (-360).

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