Thanksgiving College Football Picks: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns
Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, Texas

Thursday, November 28, 2013, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: Texas -5 1/2
Current Line: Texas -4 1/2
Opening Total: 66 1/2
Current Total: 66 1/2
Opening Money Line: Texas -185 / Texas Tech +160
Current Money Line: Texas -185 / Texas Tech +160 

Texas still has hopes of a Big 12 title as they Host Texas tech on Thanksgiving. The Longhorns are 4.5 point favorites.
Texas still has hopes of a Big 12 title as they Host Texas tech on Thanksgiving. The Longhorns are 4.5 point favorites.

The 7-3 Texas Longhorns are 6-1 in the Big 12. The Longhorns are tied for second place with Baylor in the Big 12, a half game behind Oklahoma State. The Longhorns can still win the Big 12 if they win their remaining two games at home against Texas Tech Thanksgiving night and at Baylor next week, and if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State next week.

Texas Tech is 7-4 this season and 4-4 in the Big 12. The Red Raiders have lost 4 straight games after a 7-0 start. Texas Tech is already bowl eligible, as is Texas. The Longhorns lead the series against the Red Raiders 47-15, including 29-5 in Austin. The Longhorns have won 12 of the last 14 and four in a row in the series including 31-22 last year in Lubbock.

Texas Tech is coached by Kliff Kingsbury, a former quarterback at the school. The Red Raiders have home wins over Stephen F. Austin 61-13, TCU 20-10, Texas State 33-7, and Iowa State 42-35. Texas Tech has road wins at SMU 41-23, at Kansas 54-16 and at West Virginia 37-27. The Red Raiders have road losses at Oklahoma 38-30, and two weeks ago in Arlington, Texas against Baylor 63-34. along with home losses to Oklahoma State 52-34 and Kansas State 49-26. The Red Raiders are 5-6 ATS and the total is 9-2 this season. Texas Tech was a 27.5 point underdog against Baylor and the total was 84.

Texas Tech would jump out to an early 20-7 lead in the first quarter against high powered Baylor. However, Baylor would lead 35-27 by halftime. In the second half the Bears broke open a close game outscoring Texas Tech 28-7. Baylor won the neutral site game at AT&T stadium in Arlington 63-34. The Bears had 675 total yards including 340 rushing and 335 passing yards. The Red Raiders had 458 total yards including 320 passing yards. The two teams combined for 20 penalties for 217 yards. Texas Tech had three turnovers and Baylor had one.

Texas Tech is outscoring teams 38-30 this season. The Red Raiders are #22 nationally in scoring and #84 in points allowed out of 125 FBS teams. On offense, Texas Tech is averaging 523.5 yards per game including 400.2 passing and 123.4 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #9 in total offense nationally and #1 in passing, but #106 in rushing. On defense, Texas Tech is allowing 415.3 yards per game including 228.6 passing and 186.6 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #80 in total defense and #89 against the rush. Texas Tech is -12 in turnovers with 28 giveaways and 16 takeaways. The Red Raiders average 74 penalty yards per game and opponents average 73. Texas Tech is 89/197 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 68/196. The Red Raiders have forced 21 sacks and allowed 24 this season. Texas Tech is 56/64 scoring in the red zone with 36 touchdowns and opponents are 33/40 with 26 touchdowns. The Red Raiders have two defensive touchdowns this season and have allowed a kick return and a punt return for touchdowns.

Texas Tech quarterback Baker Mayfield is a walk-on true freshman. He has been doing great this season, but injured his knee in the Kansas game. The injury kept him out for four games, but he has started the last two games. Davis Webb, another true freshman started in his place (Apparently, in order to be a quarterback for Texas Tech you have to have a name that sounds like a PGA golfer.) Mayfield has completed 65.5% of his passes for 2,078 yards with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 72 carries, 187 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Webb has completed 61.9% of his passes for 2,315 yards with 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

Running back Kenny Williams has 113 carries for 439 yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 26 catches for 238 yards and a touchdown grab. Williams also has thrown 2 two touchdown passes. DeAndre Washington has 90 carries, 388 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 28 catches for 197 yards. Sadale Foster has 24 carries for 182 yards with 2 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 150 yards. Tight end Jace Amaro has 92 catches, 1,157 yards and 6 touchdowns. Receiver Eric Ward has 72 catches, 816 yards and 8 touchdowns. Jakeem Grant has 59 catches, 707 yards and 5 touchdowns. Bradley Marquez has 43 catches, 543 yards and 5 touchdowns. Reginald Davis has 10 catches, 129 yards and 3 touchdowns. Two Texas Tech defensive backs are out for the season.

Texas is coached by Mack Brown. The Longhorns have losses at BYU 40-21 along with home losses to Ole Miss 44-23 and Oklahoma State 38-13 two weeks ago. The loss to OSU snapped a six game winning streak for the Longhorns.  Texas has home wins over New Mexico State 56-7, Kansas State 31-21, Oklahoma 36-20 (in Dallas), and Kansas 35-13 along with road wins at Iowa State 31-30, at TCU 30-7 and West Virginia 47-40 in overtime. Texas is 5-5 ATS and the total is 5-5 as well. The Longhorns were 3 point underdogs against Oklahoma State and the total was 61.5.

Oklahoma State took a 7-3 lead in the first quarter against Texas. The Cowboys would expand the lead to 28-10 by halftime including a back-breaking 43 yards pick six with 18 seconds left in the half. OSU would add 10 more points in the third quarter to take a 38-13 lead. Neither team would score in the fourth quarter. The Cowboys had 380 total yards including 183 rushing yards. The Longhorns had 389 total yards including 238 passing yards. Texas had three turnovers and OSU had one.

Texas is outscoring teams 32-26 this season The Longhorns are averaging 439.7 yards per game on offense, including 247 passing and 192.7 rushing yards. Texas is in the top 50 nationally in all offenive categories. On defense Texas is allowing 392.3 yards per game including 207.2 passing and  185.1 rushing yards. Texas is #25 in pass defense and #85 against the run. The Longhorns are +7 in turnovers with 23 takeaways. Texas is 83/188 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 64/168. The Longhorns are   30/34 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns and opponents are 34/39 with 22 touchdowns. Texas has forced 26 sacks and allowed 12 this season. The Longhorns are averaging 45 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 63 penalty yards per game. Texas has a pick six, a fumble return for a TD and a punt return for a touchdown this season and has also allowed 2 pick sixes and a punt return for a touchdown.

Quarterback David Ash has completed 60.9% of his passes for 760 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 31 carries, 152 yards and a touchdown. He is out for the season after suffering a severe concussion earlier in the season. Back-up Case McCoy has played well since the injury to Ash. McCoy has completed 60.6% of his passes for 1,692 yards with 8 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with 31 carries, 152 yards and a rushing touchdown.

Running back Johnathan Gray has 159 carries, 780 yards and 4 touchdowns, and also has 15 catches for 61 yards. He is out for the season with an Achilles’ tendon tear. Malcolm Brown has 136 carries, 515 yards and 9 touchdowns, plus 13 catches for 176 yards and a touchdown. Joe Bergeron has 45 carries, 240 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 8 catches. Jalen Overstreet has 10 carries, 89 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out for the season. Running back Daje Johnson has 22 carries, 121 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 22 catches for 168 yards and a touchdown. He also has a punt return for a touchdown.

Receiver Mike Davis has 42 catches, 589 yards and 6 scores. Kendall Sanders has 34 catches, 349 yards and a touchdown.Receiver Jaxon Shipley has 52 catches for 570 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Johnson and John Harris each have two touchdown catches. Four defensive players are listed as questionable or out Thursday for the Longhorns.

Texas Tech is 2-8 ATS after a cover, 1-5 after accumulating 450 total yards or more, 1-7 against teams with winning records, 1-10 in November, 0-7 after a straight up loss, 0-6 after allowing 40 points or more, 0-4 in Big 12 games, after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, after passing for 280 yards or more, and overall.

Texas is 10-2 ATS after a double digit home loss, 4-1 after failing to cover, 5-2 after a bye week, 3-10 against teams with winning road records, and 1-5 in Thursday games. The Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in Austin against the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech has lost four straight games playing against the other five good teams in the Big 12. It doesn’t get any easier as they travel to Austin on Thanksgiving to face a Texas team that should be angry after getting whipped by Oklahoma State. Texas struggled on offense in that game, but they should move the ball against a Texas Tech team that has given up at least 38 points in the last four games. Texas wins at home.

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