Pac 12 College Football Betting Picks: #12 Oregon Ducks at #18 UCLA Bruins

#12 Oregon Ducks at #18 UCLA Bruins
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California

Saturday, October 11, 2014, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: Oregon -3 1/2
Current Line: Oregon -2 1/2
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 71
Opening Money Line: Oregon -130 / UCLA +110
Current Money Line: Oregon -125 / UCLA +105

Oregon is a 3 point favorite against UCLA as both teams try to rebound from losses last week.
Oregon is a 3 point favorite against UCLA as both teams try to rebound from losses last week.

Before last week, the Oregon Ducks and UClA Bruins were both 4-0 and ranked in the top 12. However, both were two of the victims of the many upsets in the top 25 last week. The Ducks and Bruins look to rebound as they meet Saturday in Pasadena. The winner will stay alive for the four team playoffs, and the loser will be hard-pressed to even contend for the Pac 12 title.

UCLA leads the series against Oregon 39-27 but Oregon is 7-6 in the Rose Bowl Stadium against UCLA. Oregon has won five straight games in the series including 42-14 in Eugene last season. Oregon hasn’t played against UCLA in the Rose Bowl since 2009, but has played in 2 Rose Bowl games since then.

Oregon is coached by Mark Helfrich. The Ducks have home wins over South Dakota 62-13, Michigan State 46-27 and Wyoming 48-14. Oregon opened Pac 12 play with a 38-31 win at Washington State. However, last Thursday, Oregon was upset at home 31-24 by Arizona. The Ducks were 21.5 point favorites against Arizona and the total was 81.5. Oregon is 1-4 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season.

UCLA is coached by Jim Mora, Jr. The Bruins have road wins over Virginia 28-20 and Arizona State 62-27, a home win over Memphis 42-35 and a “neutral site” win over Texas 20-17 in Arlington, Texas. Last week UCLA lost at home to Utah 30-28. The Bruins are 1-4 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season. UCLA was a 13 point favorite against Utah and the total was 64.

Oregon is outscoring teams 44-23 this season. Oregon is #10 nationally in scoring and #53 in points allowed. The Ducks average 523 yards per game including 324 passing and 209 rushing yards. Oregon is #13 in total offense and #16 in passing. Even the rushing attack is #36 in the country. Oregon is allowing 454 yards per game on defense, including 310 passing and 154 rushing yards. Oregon is #122 in pass defense and #104 in total defense out of 128 teams. The Ducks are +7 in turnovers for the season with 10 takeaways. Oregon is 36/69 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 42/94. The Ducks have forced 16 sacks and allowed 15. Oregon is 21/24 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns, and opponents are 17/22 with 13 touchdowns. The Ducks are averaging 66 penalty yards per game, and opponents are averaging 51. Oregon has a punt return for touchdown.

Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota might have had his Heisman Trophy hopes dashed with the loss last week. Mariota has completed 71.1% of his passes for 1,411 yards with 15 touchdowns and no interceptions, and has rushed for 215 yards on 42 carries with 3 touchdowns. Running back Royce Freeman has 67 carries for 346 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 3 catches. Byron Marshall has 24 carries for 213 yards and a touchdown, and 24 catches for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns. Thomas Tyner has 50 carries for 221 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches. Receiver Devon Allen has 19 catches for 377 yards and 6 touchdowns. Keanon Lowe has 17 catches for 266 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Pharaoh Brown has 10 catches for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Bralon Addison is out for the season with a knee injury. Two offensive linemen are also out indefinitely.

UCLA is outscoring teams 36-26. The Bruins are averaging 465 yards per game including 298 passing and 168 rushing. On defense, UCLA is allowing 429 yards per game including 271 passing and 158 rushing. UCLA is +2 in turnovers with 7 takeaways. The Bruins average 66 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 56. UCLA is 35/80 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/102. The Bruins have forced 7 sacks and allowed 23 this season. UCLA is 15/15 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns and opponents are 13/16 with 8 touchdowns. The Bruins have five defensive/special teams scores this season, three against Virginia and have allowed 2 this season.

UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has completed 72.8% of his passes for 1,310 yards with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 53 carries for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Paul Perkins has 94 carries for 540 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 10 catches for 79 yards. Jordan Payton has 31 catches for 491 yards and 3 touchdowns. Thomas Duarte has 13 catches for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns. Devin Fuller has 21 catches for 204 yards and a touchdown. Nate Iese has only 8 catches but 2 touchdowns. Three offensive linemen and four defensive touchdowns are questionable or out for the Bruins.

Oregon is 11-2 ATS on grass, 10-2 against teams with winning home records, 13-4 in road games, 19-6-1 in October, 2-5 after failing to cover, against teams with winning records, and after passing for more than 280 yards, 2-8 after allowing 280 rushing yards or more and overall, 1-6 after allowing more than 450 total yards, and 0-6 in Pac 12 games. The Ducks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games in Pasadena against the Bruins.

UCLA is 6-1 ATS after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 14-5 against teams with winning road records, 5-17 in October, and 1-4 overall. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games at UCLA in this series.

Both of these teams have struggled on defense. UCLA has struggled on offense at times. This should be a high scoring game though. I think Oregon wins a close game on the road, but I don’t trust either of these teams completely.

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