#9 Utah Utes at Oregon State Beavers
Gill Coliseum – Corvallis, Oregon
Thursday, February 19, 2015, 11:00 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Opening Line: Utah -9 1/2
Current Line: Utah -7 1/2
Opening Total: 110
Current Total: 113
Opening Money Line: Utah -420 / Oregon State +340
Current Money Line: Utah -320 / Oregon State +260
The Utah Utes and Arizona Wildcats are both 10-2 in the Pac 12 and at least 3 games clear of every other team in the conference. The teams have a showdown next week in Salt Lake City. However, Utah has a two game road trip to the two Oregon schools before that happens. The 20-4 Utes travel to the 16-9 Oregon State Beavers Thursday night. The Beavers are 7-6 in conference and tied for fifth with Stanford.
Utah leads the series 14-10 against Oregon State, but the Utes have only one win in ten previous trips to Corvallis. The Utes have won 2 straight games in the series including 80-69 in Salt Lake City last season. This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams this season.
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Utah is coached by Larry Krystkowiak. The Utes have road losses at San Diego State, Arizona and UCLA, plus a neutral site loss to Kansas in Kansas City. Utah has won 6 of their last 7 games including 4 straight. The Utes have home wins over Ball State, UC-Riverside, Wichita State, South Dakota State, USC, UCLA, Colorado, Washington State, Washington, Stanford and California 76-61 Sunday. Utah has road wins over BYU, Arizona State, USC and Colorado and a technically neutral site win over UNLV in Las Vegas. The Utes are 16-6-1 ATS and the total is 12-9-1 this season. Utah was a 17.5 point favorite against Cal and the total was 127.
Oregon State is coached by Wayne Tinkle. The Beavers have neutral site losses to Oklahoma State and Auburn in a tournament in Las Vegas, plus road losses at Quinnipiac, Oregon, Washington, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA and USC 68-55 Saturday. The Beavers have lost 2 straight games. Oregon State has home wins over Rice, Oral Roberts, Mississippi State, DePaul, UC-Santa Barbara, Arizona State, Arizona, Washington and Washington State, UCLA and USC, along with road wins at Portland and Washington State. OSU is 14-0 straight up at home this season The Beavers are 14-10 ATS and the total is 7-13 this season. OSU was a 2 point favorite at last place USC and the total was 118.
Utah is outscoring teams 74-56 this season. The Utes are #37 in scoring and #10 in points allowed nationally. Utah is shooting 49.7% from the field and 40.8% from 3 point range. The Utes are in the top eight nationally in both categories. Utah makes 69.4% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 37.9% from the field and 32.2% from 3 point range. The Utes are #11 nationally in field goal defense. Utah averages 35.5 rebounds per game and opponents average 26.6 per game. Utah is #17 nationally in rebounds allowed. The Utes average 15 assists, 11.4 turnovers, 6.5 steals and 4.9 blocks per game. Opponents average 9.1 assists, 12.5 turnovers, 5.8 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.
Guard Delon Wright averages 14.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 2.3 steals per game. Jordan Loveridge averages 10.3 points and 3.9 rebounds per game. Brandon Taylor averages 10.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Jakob Poeltl averages 9.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. Dakarai Tucker averages 8 points and 2.2 rebounds per game. Brekkott Chapman averages 6.8 points and 2.5 rebounds. Four other players average at least 12 minutes per game in the rotation.
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Oregon State is outscoring teams 62-58 this season. The Beavers are #14 in points allowed and #311 out of 353 teams in scoring nationally. OSU is shooting 42.8% from the field and 32% from 3 point range. The Beavers make 70.4% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 37.6% from the field and 29.4% from 3 point range. The Beavers are #15 or better nationally in both categories. Oregon State averages 32.6 rebounds per game and opponents average 28.8 per game. Oregon State averages 12.3 assists, 12.2 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 4 blocks per game. Opponents average 10.9 assists, 14.7 turnovers, 6.4 steals and 3.2 blocks per game.
Guard Gary Payton II averages 13.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Guard Victor Robbins averages 10.3 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. He is suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. Langston Morris-Walker averages 10.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. Malcolm Duvivier averages 9.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Olaf Schaftenaar averages 8.2 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. Jarmal Reid averages 8.3 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game. Daniel Gomis averages 4.1 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. Guards Alex Roth and Chai Baker are both out for the season.
Utah is 3-0-1 ATS after failing to cover, 6-2-1 in road games and against teams with winning home record, 35-13-3 after a straight up win, 8-3-1 in Thursday games, 39-15-2 overall, 42-18-1 against Pac 12 teams, and 47-21-3 against teams with winning records. The favorite has covered 4 of the last 5 games in this series.
Oregon State is 6-1 ATS against teams with winning road records, 22-7-2 at home, 6-2 in Thursday games, 9-4 after a straight up loss, 1-4 after failing to cover, 1-6 overall and in Pac 12 games.
Utah has won 4 straight games but playing in Corvallis is very tough. The Beavers already have home wins over Arizona and UCLA. Oregon State struggles on offense but makes up for it by being one of the best defensive teams in the country. Utah is better on offense but both teams are top 15 defensive teams nationally. I like Utah to win a close game on the road but it will be a rock fight in the 50’s.