Pac 12 Battle in Boulder: California Golden Bears at Colorado Buffaloes

California Golden Bears at Colorado Buffaloes
Coors Events Center – Boulder, Colorado
Sunday, February 26, 2012, 5:30 pm Eastern, TV: FSN
Opening Line: Cal -2 1/2
Current Total: Cal -2 1/2
Opening Total: 132
Current Total: 134
Opening Money Line: Cal -140 / Colorado +120
Current Money Line: Cal -145 / Colorado +125

The Colorado Buffaloes host the Cal Golden Bears in a key Pac 12 match-up. The bears are slight road favorites.

The 23-6 California Golden Bears are tied for first place with in the Pac 12 with Washington at 13-3. The Bears have won 6 games in a row, including 60-46 at Utah Thursday night. Cal can take a half game lead in the conference race if they can win on the road at Colorado Sunday. The Buffaloes are 10-5 in conference and 18-9 overall. Colorado lost at home 74-50 to Stanford Thursday night. It was a costly loss as it dropped the Buffaloes into a tie for fourth place in the Pac 12. The top 4 teams get byes in the Pac 12 tournament in a couple of weeks. California leads the series 10-8 against Colorado. The Bears beat the Buffaloes last month in Berkeley 57-50.

California is coached by Mike Montgomery. The Golden bears have losses to Missouri, San Diego St, UNLV, Oregon St, Washington St, and Arizona. Cal has wins over UC-Irvine, George Washington, Georgia, San Jose St, Weber St, UC-Santa Barbara, USC twice, UCLA twice, Oregon twice, Utah twice, Washington, Stanford, Arizona St, and Oregon St.

Colorado is coached by Tad Boyle. The Buffaloes have losses to Wichita St, Maryland, Colorado St, Wyoming, Stanford twice, UCLA, and Arizona. Colorado has wins over Western Michigan, Air Force, Georgia, Fresno St, Utah twice, Washington, Washington St, Arizona St twice, Arizona, USC, Oregon St, and Oregon.

Cal is outscoring opponents 73-60 this season. The Golden Bears shoot 48.5% from the field, including 37.4% from 3 point range. The Bears are #16 in field goal percentage. Cal makes 74.9% from the free throw line.  The Golden Bears average 35 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +4.8. Cal averages 16.4 assists, 11.9 turnovers, 4.9 steals, and 3 blocks a game. Cal opponents are shooting 40.7% from the field, including 32.3% from 3 point range. The Golden Bears force 13.6 turnovers a game.

California guard Allen Crabbe averages 15.2 points, 5.8 rebounds to lead the team, and 2.2 assists a game. He shoots 41.4% from 3 point range. Jorge Gutierrez is averaging 13.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.3 steals a game to lead the team. He makes 31.3% from 3 point range. Justin Cobbs averages 12.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.9 assists to lead the team, and 1.1 steals a game. Cobbs makes 47.1% of his 3 point attempts. Harper Kamp averages 11 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Richard Solomon led the team in rebounds with 6.2 a game and blocks with 1.2 a game. Solomon is out for the season due to being ineligible.  David Kravish averages 5.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks a game to lead the team. Guard Alex Rossi is questionable with an abdominal injury.

Colorado is outscoring opponents 68-63. The Buffaloes are shooting 44.3% from the field and 35.1% from 3 point range. Colorado makes 69.5% of their free throws. The Buffaloes average 36.9 rebounds a game with a rebounding margin of +4.4. Colorado averages 12.4 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 5.6 steals, and 3.3 blocks a game. Buffalo opponents are shooting 39.9% from the field and 32.4% from 3 point range. Colorado forces 12.6 turnovers a game.

Colorado guard Carlon Brown averages 12.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists a game. He makes 31.0% of his 3 point shots. Andre Robinson averages 11.1 points, 11.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.9 blocks a game. He leads the Buffs in rebounds, steals and blocks. Austin Dufault averages 11.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 1 assist a game. He makes 39.6% of his 3 point attempts. Spencer Dinwiddie averages 10.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists a game. He is shooting 44.6% from 3 point range. Askia Booker averages 9.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.5 assists a game. Nate Tomlinson leads the team in assists with 3.3 a game.

Colorado is 12-11 ATS and the total is 9-14 this season. California is 16-11 ATS and the total is 10-17 this season. Colorado is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 against Cal. The Golden Bears are 6-0 ATS after failing to cover, 5-0 after allowing 50 points or less, 4-1 in Sunday games, 6-2 as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less, 17-7-1 as a road favorite, and 15-7 as a favorite. The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog, 12-3 after failing to cover, 4-1 as an underdog of 6.5 points or less, 9-4 as an underdog, 15-7 after a double digit home loss, 3-12 in Sunday games, 1-4 overall, in Pac 12 games, and at home against teams with winning road records, 4-17 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, and 1-6 against teams with winning records.

California is trying to win the Pac 12 regular season title. This game is important to Colorado as well, as they need to win to keep pace with Oregon for 4th in the conference, and to bolster their resume for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. California is the better team, but I like Colorado at home in the altitude to pull off the upset.

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