Civil War Betting Preview: Oregon Ducks at Oregon St Beavers

Oregon Ducks at Oregon St Beavers
Gill Coliseum – Corvallis, Oregon
Sunday, February 26, 2012, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: FSN
Opening Line: Oregon St -3
Current Line: Oregon St -3 1/2
Opening Total: 153
Current Total: 151
Opening Money Line: Oregon St -165 / Oregon +145
Current Money Line: Oregon St -165 / Oregon +145

Oregon St and Oregon face off Sunday for the 337th time in the Civil War. The Beavers are slight favorites at home.

The 19-8 Oregon Ducks and 15-12 Oregon St Beavers meet for the 337th time Sunday. No college basketball rivalry has been contested more than this series. Oregon St leads their rivals 184-152, including 99-60 in Corvallis. The Beavers won in Eugene earlier this season 76-71, and are going for the season sweep Sunday. Oregon is 10-5 in the Pac 12 tied with Colorado 2.5 games behind leaders Cal and Washington. The top 4 teams get first round byes in the Pac 12 tournament in a couple of weeks The Ducks won at Stanford last Sunday 68-64. Oregon St has struggled so far this season with a 5-10 conference record. The Beavers  are in 9th place in the conference. Oregon St has lost 4 games in a row and 5 of their last 6, including 77-63 at Cal last Saturday.

Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have wins over Nebraska, UTEP, Fresno St, Washington St twice, Stanford twice, Arizona St, Arizona, USC, UCLA, Utah, and Washington. Oregon has losses to Vanderbilt, BYU, Virginia, Washington, Cal twice, and Colorado.

Oregon St is coached by Craig Robinson, whose brother-in-law is President Obama. The Beavers have losses to Vanderbilt, Idaho, Washington twice, Washington St twice, Stanford twice, Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, and Cal. Oregon St has wins over Hofstra, Texas, Montana, Cal, UCLA, USC, and Utah.

Oregon is outscoring opponents 71-67 this season. The Ducks are shooting 45.8% from the field, including 36.9% from 3 point range. Oregon makes 70.2% of their free throws. The Ducks average 34 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +1.3. Oregon averages 13.7 assists, 13.8 turnovers, 5.8 steals, and 3.6 blocks a game. Duck opponents are shooting 43.4% from the field, including 33.5% from 3 point range. The Ducks force 12.9 turnovers a game.

Oregon guard Devoe Joseph, a transfer from Minnesota, averages 16.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.3 steals a game. He is shooting 43.9% from 3 point range.  He leads the team in scoring and steals. E.J. Singler averages 13.4 points, 5.6 rebounds to lead the team, and 2.2 assists a game. Garrett Sim averages 11.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1 steal a game. He is shooting 44.4% from 3 point range.  Olu Ashaolu averages 8.4 points and 4.9 rebounds a game to lead the team. Tony Woods averages 6.3 points, 3.7 rebounds,  and 1.6 blocks a game to lead the team. Johnathan Loyd averages 3.2 assists to lead the team.

Oregon St is outscoring opponents 80-73 this season. The Beavers are #7 in scoring nationally, but they are #304 out of 344 teams in points allowed. The Beavers are shooting 46.8% from the field and 34.8% from 3 point range. Oregon St makes 68.7% of their free throws. The Beavers average 34.6 rebounds  a game with a rebounding margin of -0.5. Oregon St averages 16.1 assists, 14 turnovers, 9.6 steals, and 4.4 blocks a game. Beaver opponents are shooting 45.4% from the field and 38.6% from 3 point range. Oregon St forces 17.6 turnovers a game.

Oregon St guard Jared Cunningham averages 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 2.7 steals a game. He leads the Beavers in scoring and steals, and is shooting 34.2% from 3 point range. Devon Collier averages 13.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks a game. Ahmad Starks averages 11.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.7 steals a game. He makes 33.7% of his 3 pointers. Roberto Nelson averages 10 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists a game. He is shooting 37.1% from 3 point range. Angus Brandt averages 9.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.3 assists a game. Joe Burton averages 8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.3 steals a game.Eric Moreland averages 6.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocks a game to lead the team in both categories. He is probable with an ankle injury. Daniel Gomis is out indefinitely with a leg injury, but only played in one game this season.

Oregon St is 11-11-1 ATS and the total is 14-9 this season. Oregon is 13-11 ATS and the total is 11-13 this season. Four of the last five games in this series have gone under the total. The Ducks 7-0 ATS as an underdog, 6-0 in road games, overall, and in Pac 12 games, 5-0 after a cover, against teams with winning records, 5-0 as a road underdog, and as an underdog of 6.5 points or less, 4-0 as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less, and 4-0 in road games against teams with winning home records, and 4-1 after a straight up win. The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in Sunday games, 4-1 in home games against teams with winning road records,  2-5 after a straight up loss, and after failing to cover, 0-5 against teams with winning records, 0-4 overall, and in Pac 12 games.

Although Oregon St has struggled recently, and Oregon is fighting for a better position in the conference standings and has a shot of going to the NCAA tournament. However, the records don’t really matter when you have bitter rivals like these two schools playing. I think Oregon wins a close hard fought game.

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