NFL Week Three Betting Picks: Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, September 24, 2017, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, Tennessee
Opening Line: Tennessee -1
Current Line: Tennessee -2 1/2
Opening Total: 43 1/2
Current Total: 41 1/2
Opening Money Line: Titans -135 / Seahawks +115
Current Money Line: Titans -145 / Seahawks +125

The Seahawks travel to the Titans in a battle of playoff contenders.

Both the Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans are 1-1 this season as they meet Sunday in Nashville. Both are favored to win their respective divisions, the Seahawks in the NFC West and the Titans in the AFC South. Seattle leads the series 10-6 against Tennessee. The Seahawks have won six of the last seven against the Titans, including a 20-13 win in Seattle in 2013. Seattle has not played in Nashville since 2005.

Seattle is coached by Pete Carroll. The Seahawks lost at the Green Bay Packers 17-9 in week one and beat the San Francisco 49ers 12-9 last week. Seattle was a 13.5 point favorite against San Francisco and the total was 42. It is hard to cover a 13.5 point spread when you don’t even score 13 points. San Francisco led 9-6 in the fourth before the Seahawks scored the only touchdown of the game on a 9 yard touchdown pass from Russell Wilson to Paul Richardson with just over 7 minutes to go. Seattle missed the extra point. The 49ers went three and out on their last possession before Seattle ran out the clock with less than five minutes to go. Seattle is 0-2 ATS and the total is 0-2 this season.

Tennessee is coached by Mike Mularkey. Tennessee lost at home in week one to the Oakland Raiders 26-16 and last week beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-16 on the road. The Titans were one point favorites against the Jaguars and the total was 42. Tennessee led 6-3 at halftime against Jacksonville. The Titans would score 24 straight points to lead 30-3 in the fourth and would end up winning by 21. Tennessee is 1-1 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

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Seattle is being outscored 13-11 this season. The Seahawks are #5 in points allowed, but #29 in scoring. Seattle averages 269 yards per game on offense including 158 passing and 111 rushing yards. The Seahawks are #30 in passing and  #27 in total offense.  On defense, the Seahawks are allowing 309 total yards per game including 108 passing and 122 rushing yards. Seattle is #8 in pass defense. The Seahawks are 12/32 on third and fourth conversions and opponents are 11/28. Seattle has forced 6 sacks and allowed 6 this season. The Seahawks are +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has completed 56% of his passes for 356 yards with a touchdown and an interception, plus 14 carries for 74 yards. He has been sacked six times.

Running back Chris Carson has 26 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown, plus 2 catches for 17 yards.  C.J. Prosise, Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy have combined for 14 carries for 18 yards. Prosise has 3 catches for 22 yards.

Receiver Doug Baldwin has 10 catches for 107 yards.  Paul Richardson has 6 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a finger injury. Tyler Lockett has 7 catches for 72 yards. Tight end Luke Wilson has 3 catches for 25 yards. Tight end Jimmy Graham has only 4 catches for 9 yards. He is questionable with an ankle injury. Ten defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report, including four cornerbacks and 3 linebackers.

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Tennessee is outscoring teams 27-21 this season. The Titans are #9 in scoring. Tennessee averages 370 yards per game on offense including 233 passing and 137 rushing yards. The Titans are #6 in rushing and #7 in total offense.  On defense, the Titans are allowing 335 total yards per game including 231 passing and 104 rushing yards. Tennessee is  13/27 on third and fourth conversions and opponents are 12/26. Tennessee has forced 4 sacks and allowed 2 this season. The Titans are +2 in turnovers.

Quarterback Marcus Mariota has completed 58.8% of his passes for 471 yards with a touchdown and an interception, plus 9 carries for 50 yards and a touchdown. He has been sacked two times.

Running back Derrick Henry has 20 carries for 117 yards and a touchdown. DeMarco Murray has 21 carries for 69 yards, along with 3 catches for 19 yards. He is questionable with a hamstring injury. Jalston Fowler has a rushing touchdown.

Tight end  Delanie Walker has 11 catches for 137 yards, and also has a rushing touchdown. Receiver Rishard Matthews has 8 catches for 114 yards. Corey Davis has 7 catches for 73 yards. He is out with a hamstring injury. Taywan Taylor has 3 catches for 56 yards, plus 16 rushing yards. He is questionable with a ankle injury. Eric Decker has 6 catches for 42 yards. Jonnu Smith has a touchdown catch. Seven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Seattle is 5-1 ATS after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 16-5 in week three, 6-2 after failing to cover, 1-4 in September, 2-8 after allowing less than 15 points, 1-5 after a straight up win and overall, 0-4 on grass, 0-5 in road games and after allowing less than 250 total yards. The under is 5-1 in this series recently. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in this series recently.

Tennessee is 5-1 ATS after accumulating 350 yards or more, 17-35-1 after a straight up win, 15-32-4 on grass, 15-36-1 after a cover, 15-37-3 overall, 9-25-1 after scoring more than 30 points, 7-22-2 at home, 1-5 after rushing for 150 yards or more, and 0-4 after a straight up win of 14 points or more. The Titans are 4-1 ATS against the Seahawks in the last five games.

Seattle is averaging 11 points a game. They will have to be much better on offense if they want to be serious contenders as many expected them to be before the season. The defense is still dominant though but has injuries to key players. I think the Titans are slightly overvalued here, and I like the Seahawks to win a tough road game.

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