NFL Week Ten Betting Picks: New England Patriots At New York Giants

New England Patriots at New York Giants
Sunday, November 15, 2015, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, New Jersey
Opening Line: New England -7
Current Line: New England -7 1/2 (-105)
Opening Total: 54
Current Total: 53 1/2
Opening Money Line: Patriots -350 / Giants +285
Current Money Line: Patriots -380 / Giants +300

The Patriots and Giants meet Sunday in New Jersey in a battle of division leaders.
The Patriots and Giants meet Sunday in New Jersey in a battle of division leaders.

Two division leaders clash as the 5-4 New York Giants host the 8-0 New England Patriots Sunday. The Giants lead the NFC East over the 4-4 Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots are one of three undefeated teams left along with the Cincinnati Bengals and Carolina Panthers. New England leads the AFC East over the 5-4 Buffalo Bills and New York Jets.

New York leads the series 6-5 against New England. This has become quite the rivalry as the Giants upset the Patriots twice in Super Bowls XLII and XLVI. In 2008, the Giants prevented the Patriots from finishing undefeated with a 17-14 win in Glendale, Arizona. Four years later, New York won 21-17 in Indianapolis 21-17. New York has won 3 straight games in the series including the two Super Bowls.

New England is coached by Bill Belichick. The Patriots have home wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-21, Jacksonville Jaguars 51-17, Jets 30-23, Miami Dolphins 36-7 and Washington Redskins 27-10 last week. New England has road wins over the Bills 40-32, Dallas Cowboys 30-6 and Indianapolis Colts 34-27.

The Patriots were 13.5 point favorites over the Redskins and the total was 51.5. New England took an early 17-0 lead thanks to an interception and a surprise onside kick. The Redskins would never get closer than 14 points for the rest of the game. Washington had 250 total yards to 460 for New England. The Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS this season and the total is 4-4 this season.

New York is coached by Tom Coughlin. The Giants have road losses at the Cowboys 27-26, Eagles 27-7, and New Orleans Saints 52-49, and a home loss to the Atlanta Falcons 24-20. The Giants have home wins against the Redskins 32-21, San Francisco 49ers 30-27, and Cowboys 27-20 along with  road wins at the Bills 24-10 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32-18 last week.

New York was a 1.5 point favorite at Tampa Bay and the total was 49. The Giants took a 17-9 lead into halftime. New York expanded the lead to 20-9 but Tampa Bay pulled to within 20-18 with 9:25 left in the fourth. The Giants would score the last 12 points of the game including a defensive touchdown on the last play of the game. The Buccs had 383 total yards to 327 for the Giants. However, Tampa Bay had 3 turnovers to 2 for the Giants. New York is 5-3-1 ATS and the total is 6-3 this season.

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New England is outscoring teams 35-18 this season. The Patriots lead the league in scoring and are #5 in points allowed. New England averages 420 total yards per game including 326 passing and 95 rushing yards per game. The Patriots are #2 in total offense, #3 in passing offense, but #26 in rushing. On defense, the Patriots allow 334 total yards per game including 245 passing and 89 rushing yards. The patriots are #8 in total defense and #3 against the rush.  New England is 53/108 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 51/121. The Patriots have forced 27 sacks and allowed 18 this season. New England is +7 in turnovers and has allowed one defensive touchdown this season.

Quarterback Tom Brady is having another MVP caliber season. He has completed 68.6% of his passes for 2,709 yards with 22 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 19 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns.

Running back LeGarrette Blount has 98 carries for 447 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 3 catches for 27 yards and a touchdown. Dion Lewis has 49 carries for 234 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 36 catches for 388 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out for the season with a torn ACL. No other running back has more than seven carries, so it is unclear who will get the back-up carries.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 44 catches for 693 yards and seven touchdown catches. Receiver Julian Edelman has 57 catches for 639 yards and seven touchdowns, along with 23 rushing yards. Danny Amendola has 30 catches for 324 yards and 2 touchdowns. Scott Chandler, Aaron Dobson and Brandon LeFell will also get some catches. LeFell is probable with a knee injury.  Eight defensive players and six offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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New York is outscoring teams 27-25 this season. The Giants are #5 in scoring. The Giants average 350 yards per game on offense including 253 passing and 97 rushing yards. New York is #20 in total offense, and #24 in rushing.  New York is allowing 423 yards per game on defense including 308 passing and 115 rushing yards. The Giants are last in total defense, #31 against the pass and #21 in rush defense. New York is 26/65 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 22/61. The Giants have 10 sacks and have allowed 12 this season. New York is +2 in turnovers. The Giants have allowed a special teams touchdown and a defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Eli Manning has completed 65.9% of his passes for 2,339 yards with 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and has 13 carries for 47 yards. Running back Rashad Jennings has 94 carries for 364 yards and a touchdown, along with 17 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown. Andre Williams has 61 carries for 177 yards and a touchdown. Shane Vereen has 41 carries for 174 yards, plus 34 catches for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. has 59 catches for 759 yards and 7 touchdowns. Rueben Randle has 36 catches for 424 yards and 6 touchdowns. Tight end Larry Donnell has 29 catches for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out with a neck injury. Receiver Victor Cruz is out with a calf injury and has yet to play this season. Tight end Daniel Fells is out indefinitely with a staph infection in his foot. Ten defensive players are listed on the injury report, as are five offensive linemen.

New England is 4-0 ATS after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 5-0-1 after passing for more than 250 yards, 7-1-1 after a straight up win, 5-1 in November, 5-1-1 overall, 4-1 against teams with winning home records, after a cover, after rushing for more than 150 yards, 4-1-1 on fieldturf, 3-1-1 in week ten, against teams with winning records, and 72-33-2 after gaining more than 350 total yards. The under is 5-1 in this series recently.

New York is 5-1 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards, 4-1 after scoring more than 30 points, 15-34-3 in November, 2-7 against teams with winning records, and 3-13 in week ten. The Giants have covered the last four games against the Patriots and were the underdogs in each of those contests.

Both of these teams teams are banged up, but New England simply has more talent. The Patriots win this game going away in a high scoring affair.

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