NFL Picks ATS: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

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Aaron Rodgers has not lost three straight since his first season starting

Detroit at Green Bay
Time: 1 PM ET
Spread: GB -11
Total: 49

Betting odds c/o Bovada

Green Bay has dropped two straight but is facing the right team to get back on track against, the 1-7 Detroit Lions, who enter the game as 11-point underdogs to the Packers. The game will air on FOX at 1 PM ET.

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Aaron Rodgers has not lost three straight in seven seasons and the Packers have the longest home winning streak over any NFL opponent in Detroit. The Packers had just 140 yards in their 29-10 loss to the Denver Broncos, and it was unable to overcome Carolina last week.

The last time Green Bay lost three straight with Rodgers was in 2008, his first full year as a starter. Prior to the two losses, Green Bay had knocked off, in succession, Chicago, Seattle, Kansas City, San Francisco, St Louis and San Diego.

Rodgers has thrown for 1,937 yards this season and averages 225.3 yards per game. He has 19 TD passes and just three INTs, for an interception rate of just 1.2 percent. His passer rating is 108.2. Rodgers top targets James Jones and Randall Cobb each have over 470 yards on the season and 11 TDs between them. The 5’10” Cobb is in his fifth season out of Kentucky and has been targeted a team-high 68 times. Accordingly he leads the team in total receptions with 40.

James Starks and Eddie Lacy have been of middling effectiveness in the backfield. Starks averages 4.3 yards per carry on 78 attempts and Lacy is good for just 3.7 yards per carry. Rodgers has trekked for an additional 213 yards on 35 carries, for an average of 6.1 yards per attempt.

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The Lions lost the last two weeks by a combined 73-29 score, and things are just not good. The Lions have come to realize this model is not going to get it done, and Matt Stafford may be the one to take the fall. He has thrown 11 interceptions and been sacked 22 times while posting a passer rating of just 84.1.

Ameer Abdullah has been weak at best, and Joique Bell is not much more than a short yardage back. There is just not a lot of offensive firepower to the Lions, despite having Calvin Johnson at WR. Johnson still has 659 yards on the season and three TDs. And Golden Tate and Theo Roddick each have 40 or more receptions on the year.

It is just that the Lions defense has not been that good either. It gave up 45 to the Chiefs two weeks ago and was on a bye week last week. Three assistant coaches were fired following that loss to Kansas City, and then team president Tom Lewand and GM Martin Mayhew were both fired.

The Lions are being reconstructed from the bottom up with brass being let go, and owner Martha Firestone Ford said “Our fans deserve a winning football team and we will do everything possibly to make it a reality.”

Stafford is not a winning proposition and the Lions cannot get much going on the ground, so it is difficult to see things radically changing this season for Detroit. Green Bay may win this by at least two TDs.

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