NFL Week Ten Betting Picks: Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, November 12, 2017, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum – Los Angeles, California
Opening Line: Los Angeles -11
Current Line: Los Angeles -12
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 46
Opening Money Line: Rams -800 / Texans +550
Current Money Line: Rams -700 / Texans +500

The Texans travel to the Rams in week 10 action Sunday.

The 3-5 Houston Texans travel to the 6-2 Los Angeles Rams Sunday. The Texans are tied for last in the AFC South two games behind the 5-3 Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. The Rams lead the NFC West by a half game over the 6-3 Seattle Seahawks who beat the Arizona Cardinals Thursday night.

This is only the third ever meeting between the Rams and Texans. LA/St. Louis leads the series 2-1, including a 38-13 win in Houston in 2013. The two cities just met in the World Series a couple of weeks ago as the Houston Astros defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in a thrilling seven game series.

Houston is coached by Bill O’Brien. The Texans have home losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars 29-7, Kansas City Chiefs 42-34, and Indianapolis Colts 20-14 last week, plus road losses at the New England Patriots 36-33 and Seattle Seahawks 41-38. Houston has a road win over the Cincinnati Bengals 13-9 and at home over the Tennessee Titans 57-14 and Cleveland Browns 33-17. The Texans were 6 point favorites against the Colts and the total was 45. Houston is 5-3 ATS and the total is 5-3 this season.

Los Angeles is is led by first year coach Sean McVay. The Rams have home losses to the Washington Redskins 27-20 and Seattle Seahawks 16-10 last week. LA has a home win over the Indianapolis Colts 46-9, plus road wins over the San Francisco 49ers 41-39, Dallas Cowboys 35-30, Jacksonville Jaguars 27-17 and New York Giants 51-17 last week. The Rams also have a neutral site win over the Arizona Cardinals 33-0 in London. LA has won three straight games. The Rams were 5.5 point favorites against the Giants and the total was 42.5. Los Angeles is 5-3 ATS and the total is 6-2 this season.

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Houston is outscoring teams  29-26 this season. Houston is #3 in scoring and #30 in points allowed. The Texans average 358 yards per game on offense including 225 passing and 133 rushing. The Texans  #4 in rushing. Houston allows 349 yards per game on defense including 243 passing and 96 rushing yards. The Texans are  are #9 in rush defense.   Houston is 38/105 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 38/107. The Texans have forced 20 sacks and allowed 28 this season. Houston is -1 in turnovers and has scored 4 defensive touchdowns. They have also given up four special teams/defensive touchdowns.

Rookie Quarterback Deshaun Watson has completed 61.8% of his passes for 1,699 yards with 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 36 carries for 269 yards and two touchdowns. He has been sacked 19 times. Watson took over for Tom Savage who was benched after a half in the season opener and was rookie of the year contender. However, he suffered a torn ACL in practice a couple of weeks ago and is gone for the season. Savage is the starter again. Savage has thrown for 281 yards with a touchdown and has been sacked nine times.

Running back Lamar Miller has 129 carries for 483 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 21 catches for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns.  D’Onta Foreman has 61 carries for 244 yards, plus 3 catches for 68 yards.

Receiver DeAndre Hopkins has 51 catches for 692 yards and 8 touchdowns. Will Fuller V has 15 catches for 311 yards and 7 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury. Stephen Anderson has 14 catches for 191 yards. Bruce Ellington has 15 catches for 190 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Ryan Griffin has 13 catches for 158 yards and a touchdown. He is out for the season with a concussion Tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz is probable to return from a concussion. Ten defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Los Angeles is outscoring teams  33-19 this season. LA is #1 in scoring and #9 in points allowed. The Rams average 382 yards per game on offense including 250 passing and 132 rushing yards per game. LA is #10 or better in all three categories. On defense, the Rams allow 327 yards per game including 205 passing and 122 rushing yards. The Rams are #9 in pass defense, and #26 against the run. LA is 55/113 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 49/124. The Rams have forced 25 sacks and allowed 10 this season. Los Angeles is +3 in turnovers and has scored 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

Quarterback Jared Goff has completed 60.2% of his passes for 2,030 yards with 13 touchdowns and and 4 interceptions, plus he has 13 carries for 45 rushing yards and a touchdown. He has only been sacked ten times.

Running back Todd Gurley has 161 carries for 686 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 29 catches for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tavon Austin has 39 carries for 161 yards and a touchdown, plus 7 catches.  Malcolm Brown has 37 carries for 138 yards and a touchdown, plus 5 catches. He is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Lance Dunbar will get the back-up carries as Austin is listed as a receiver.

Receiver Robert Woods has 31 catches for 451 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Receiver Cooper Kupp has 26 catches for 370 yards and 3 touchdowns. Sammy Watkins has 19 catches for 331 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Tyler Higbee has 15 catches for 187 yards and a touchdown.  Tight end Gerald Everett has 8 catches for 198 yards and a touchdown.

Houston is 5-0 ATS in week 10, 5-2 after a straight up loss and overall, 34-16-1 after scoring less than 15 points, 3-7-1 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 1-5 on grass, and 1-6 against teams with winning home records.

Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS overall, 6-2 in week 10, 2-5-2 in November, 5-16-1 after passing for more than 250 yards, 2-8-1 at home and on grass, 2-8 after gaining 350 yards or more, 1-5 against teams with losing records, and 1-5-1 against teams with losing road records.

Up until a couple of weeks ago this would have been a battle of two of the top young quarterbacks in the league. However, the Watson injury put a damper on that. Houston is ravaged by injuries, while the Rams are relatively healthy. I think 11 points is a little much but I think the Rams win a close high scoring game.

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