NFL Week Seven Betting Picks: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 22, 2017, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Levis Stadium – Santa Clara, California
Opening Line: Dallas -4 1/2
Current Line: Dallas -6 1/2
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 48 1/2
Opening Money Line: Cowboys -250 / 49ers +210
Current Money Line: Cowboys -260 / 49ers +220

Dallas looks to get back to .500 as they travel to the 0-6 San Francisco 49ers.

After two straight home losses in which they led by double digits, the Dallas Cowboys are 2-3 as they come off their bye last week. They look to get back on track as they travel to the 0-6 San Francisco 49ers Sunday. The 49ers are one of the two teams without a win along with the Cleveland Browns, but San Francisco has lost five straight games by three points or less. Dallas is in third place in the NFC East behind the 5-1 Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers are in last place in the NFC West.

The series is tied 17-17-1 between Dallas and San Francisco. The Cowboys have won four of the last five meetings against the 49ers including 24-17 in Santa Clara last season.

Dallas is coached by Jason Garrett. The Cowboys have a home win over the New York Giants 19-3 and a road win over the Arizona Cardinals 28-17. Dallas has a road loss at the Denver Broncos 42-17 and home losses to the Los Angeles Rams 35-30 and Green Bay Packers 35-31 two weeks ago. The Cowboys led 21-6 against the Packers but Green Bay would score 16 straight points to take a 22-21 lead. The teams traded the lead four more times before Green Bay scored the game winning touchdown pass with 11 seconds left. Dallas was a 2.5 point favorite against Green Bay and the total was 52. The Cowboys are 2-3 ATS and the total is 3-2 this season.

San Francisco is coached by Kyle Shanahan in his first year. The 49ers have home losses to the Carolina Panthers 23-3 and last Thursday to the Los Angeles Rams 41-39, plus road losses to the Seattle Seahawks 12-9, Arizona Cardinals 18-15 in overtime, Indianapolis Colts 26-23 in overtime, and last week at the Washington Redskins 26-24. Washington took a 17-0 lead early but San Francisco tied it up. The Redskins then took a 26-17 lead and held on for the win. San Francisco was a 12 point underdog against Washington and the total was 46. The 49ers are 4-2 ATS and the total is 3-3 this season.

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Dallas is being outscored  26-25 this season. Dallas is #29 in points allowed and #9 in scoring.  The Cowboys average 356 yards per game on offense including 232 passing and 124 rushing yards. The Cowboys are in the top ten in total and rushing offense. On defense, Dallas allows 340 total yards including 222 passing and 118 rushing yards. The Cowboys are  33/74 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are  31/68. Dallas has forced 16 sacks and allowed 7 this season. Dallas is  -3 in turnovers and has allowed two defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Dak Prescott has completed 62.6% of his passes for 1,192 yards with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He also has 16 carries for 126 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. He has been sacked seven times.

Running back Ezekiel Elliott has 105 carries for 393 yards and two touchdowns, plus 17 catches for 134  yards and a touchdown. He is facing a six game suspension from the NFL.  Elliott will continue to play for at least two more weeks  until the matter is decided in court.  Alfred Morris has 8 carries for 87 yards

Receiver Dez Bryant has 21 catches for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Tight end Jason Witten has 27 catches for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brice Butler has 8 catches for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Terrance Williams has 19 catches for 180 yards.  Cole Beasley has 15 catches for 109 yards and two touchdowns.  Six defensive players are injured or suspended.

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San Francisco is being outscored 24-19 this season. The 49ers are #23 in scoring and #25 in points allowed. The 49ers average 321 yards per game on offense including 227 passing and 95 rushing. The 49ers are #20 or worse in all three categories. San Francisco is allowing 375 total yards per game including 262 passing and 113 rushing yards per game. San Francisco is #26 in total offense and #28 in pass defense. The 49ers are 35/103 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/91. The 49ers have allowed 18 sacks and forced 14 this season. San Francisco is +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer has completed 58% of his passes for 1,245 yards with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has a rushing touchdown and has been sacked 16 times. Shanahan has decided to make a change at quarterback and will start rookie C.J. Beathard. He has completed 52.8% of his passes for 245 yards with a  touchdown and an interception, and has a carry for 14 rushing yards. He has been sacked twice.

Running back Carlos Hyde has 86 carries for 360 yards and four touchdowns, plus 23 catches for 142 yards.  Matt Breida has 34 carries for 141 yards, plus 10 catches for 64 yards. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has 8 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. He is out with a back injury.

Receiver Pierre Garcon has 33 catches for 434 yards. Marquise Goodwin has 16 catches for 269 yards. Tight end George Kittle has 21 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a back injury. Aldrick Robinson has 9 catches for 153 yards and a touchdown. Trent Taylor has 14 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. Garrett Celek has a touchdown catch. Seventeen defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Dallas is 4-1 ATS in week seven, and against teams with losing records, 5-2 against teams with losing home records, 20-8 on grass, 7-3 after scoring more than 30 points, 7-3-1 after rushing for more than 150 yards, 2-5 after failing to cover, 3-8 against NFC teams, 2-6-1 after a straight up loss, 3-9 overall, 1-4-1 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 1-4 after gaining 350 yards or more and in road games. The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in this series recently.

San Francisco is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records, 5-1 after a straight up loss, and on grass, 4-1 overall, 4-9-1 after allowing 350 yards or more, 3-8 against teams with losing road records, 2-6 in October, 2-7 at home, and 1-8-1 in week 7. The over is 6-2 ATS in this series recently.

The Cowboys have really struggled on defense but they have also played two of the best offenses in the league in their last two games. San Francisco isn’t as bad as their record would indicate as they have five straight losses that could have easily been wins. Some would say they are due for a win, but I like the Cowboys against a rookie quarterback and coming off a bye.

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