NFL Week #8 Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 30, 2016, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Georgia Dome – Atlanta, Georgia
Opening Line: Atlanta -2 1/2 (-115)
Current Line: Atlanta -3 (-105)
Opening Total: 52
Current Total: 51
Opening Money Line: Falcons -155 / Packers +135
Current Money Line: Falcons -150 / Packers +130

Falcons Packers NFC Playoff Game Preview
Atlanta hosts Green bay in a key NFC contest.

The 4-2 Green Bay Packers travel to the 4-3 Atlanta Falcons in a key NFC contest Sunday. Green Bay is a game behind the 5-1 Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North. Atlanta leads the NFC South by a half game over the 3-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Green Bay leads the series 17-13 against Atlanta. The Packers have won four straight games against the Falcons, including 43-37 in Green Bay in 2014. Green Bay has not played in Atlanta since 2011.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. Green Bay has a road win at the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-23 and home wins against the Detroit Lions 34-27, New York Giants 23-16 and Chicago Bears 26-10 last Thursday. The Packers lost at the Vikings 17-14 and at home to the Dallas Cowboys 30-16. Green Bay was a 7.5 point favorite against Chicago and the total was 46.5. The Packers are 3-2-1 ATS and the total is 2-4 this season.

Atlanta is coached by Dan Quinn. The Falcons lost at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-24 and San Diego Chargers 33-30 in overtime last week at the Seattle Seahawks 26-24. The Falcons have lost two straight games after a four game winning streak. Atlanta has road wins over the Oakland Raiders 35-28, New Orleans Saints 45-32, and against the Denver Broncos 23-16, plus a home win over the Carolina Panthers 48-33. Atlanta was a 4.5 point favorite against San Diego and the total was 52.5. The Falcons are 5-2 ATS and the total is 6-1 this season.

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Green Bay is outscoring teams 23-21 this season. The Packers average 344 yards per game on offense including 239 passing and 105 rushing yards. On defense, Green Bay allows 314 total yards per game including 242 passing and 72 rushing yards per game. The Packers are #7 in total defense and lead the league in rush defense. Green Bay is 45/90 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 31/83. The Packers have forced 17 sacks and allowed 11 this season. Green Bay is -2 in turnovers.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 62.4% of his passes for 1,496 yards with 13 touchdowns and 4 touchdowns, along with 22 carries  for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns. Those are very pedestrian numbers by his standards and there has been much hand wringing over what is wrong with Aaron Rodgers in the media and by Packer fans as well.

Running back Eddie Lacy has 71 carries for 360 yards, plus 4 catches for 28 yards. He is out for the season with an ankle injury. James Starks has 24 carries for 42 yards plus 6 catches. He is out with a knee injury. Don Jackson and Knile Davis acquired in a trade last week from the Kansas City Chiefs are the only running backs on the roster besides fullback Aaron Ripkowski. Jackson and Davis have combined for three carries this season.Jackson is probable with a hand injury.

Receiver Randall Cobb has 39 catches for 388 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 10 carries for 33 yards. He is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Jordy Nelson has 27 catches for 321 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has been great after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. Davante Adams has 28 catches for 350 yards and 5 touchdowns. Ty Montgomery has 20 catches for 164 yards. He is probable with an illness. Tight end Richard Rodgers has 9 catches and a touchdown. Tight end Jared Cook is out until early November with an ankle injury. Nine defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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Atlanta is outscoring teams 33-28 this season. The Falcons are #1 in scoring and #27 in points allowed. Atlanta averages 434 yards per game on offense including 319 passing yards and 115 rushing yards. Atlanta leads the league in total offense, and is #2 in passing. On defense, Atlanta allows 386 yards per game including 294 passing and 92 rushing yards. Atlanta is #26 in total defense and #31 against the pass. The Falcons are #9 in rush defense. The Falcons are 38/92 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 48/106. Atlanta has forced 15 sacks and allowed 18 this season. The Falcons are +2 in turnovers with 3 defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Matt Ryan has completed 67.6% of his passes for 2,348 yards with 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, plus 19 carries for 60 yards. He is an early contender for the MVP.

Running back Devonta Freeman has 105 carries for 508 yards and 2 touchdowns and also has 22 catches for 169 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a hip injury. Tevin Coleman has 59 carries for 234 yards and 5 touchdowns, and also has 19 catches for 330 yards and a touchdown. He is out with a hamstring injury. Tarron Ward will likely get the back-up carries.

Receiver Julio Jones has 40 catches for 830 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Jacob Tamme has 20 catches for 191 yards and 3 touchdowns. Mohamed Sanu has 23 catches for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a groin injury. Eight defensive players are listed on the injury report for the Falcons including six linebackers.

Green Bay is 5-1 ATS after allowing less than 150 passing yards, 4-1 after passing for more than 250 yards, 7-2 after allowing less than 15 points, 10-3-1 in October, 6-2 in road games, 5-2-1 overall, 7-3 after a straight up win by 14 points or more, 39-18-3 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, and 1-3-1 after a straight up win. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in this series recently. The road team is 4-0 ATS recently.

Atlanta is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records, after allowing more than 30 points, 5-1 overall, 4-1 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 11-5 in week 8, 4-9 against NFC teams, 3-7 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 3-9 after passing for more than 250 yards, 2-7 after a straight up loss and at home, 2-9 after failing to cover, and 1-7 after allowing 350 yards or more.

This should be a high scoring game because Atlanta is terrible on defense. The Packers are strong defending the run but the pass defense struggles at time. I like the packers to win on the road.

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