NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 24, 2017, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, California
Opening Line: Jacksonville -5
Current Line: Jacksonville -4
Opening Total: 42 1/2
Current Total: 42
Opening Money Line: Jaguars -225 / 49ers +185
Current Money Line: Jaguars -210 / 49ers +175

The Jaguars look to wrap up the AFC South with a win Sunday at the 49ers.

The 10-4 Jacksonville Jaguars have been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL. The Jaguars have already clinched a playoff berth for the first time since 2007, and can clinch the AFC South title with a win on Christmas Eve at the 4-10 San Francisco 49ers. The Jaguars are currently the #3 seed but could catch the 11-3 New England Patriots or Pittsburgh Steelers for one of the top two spots and a first round bye. For San Francisco, they started off 0-9 but have won four of the last five games including three straight.

The series is tied at 2-2 between the 49ers and Jaguars. The 49ers have won two straight including 42-10 in London in 2013.

Jacksonville is coached by Doug Marrone, in his first year with the Jaguars. The Jaguars have home losses to the Tennessee Titans 37-16 and Los Angeles Rams 27-17 and road losses to the New York Jets 23-20 in overtime and Arizona Cardinals 27-24. The Jaguars have won seven of the last eight games including three straight. Jacksonville has road wins over the Houston Texans 29-7, Pittsburgh Steelers 30-9, Indianapolis Colts 27-0, and Cleveland Browns 19-7, plus a neutral site win in London over the Baltimore Ravens 44-7. The Jaguars have home wins over the Cincinnati Bengals  23-7, Los Angeles Chargers 20-17 in overtime, Colts 30-10, Seattle Seahawks 30-24 and Texans 45-7 last week. Jacksonville was a 10.5 point favorite against Houston and the total was 39. The Jaguars are 9-5 ATS and the total is 7-7 this season.

San Francisco is coached by Kyle Shanahan in his first year. The 49ers have home losses to the Carolina Panthers 23-3, Los Angeles Rams 41-39, Dallas Cowboys 40-10, Arizona Cardinals 20-10, plus road losses to the Seattle Seahawks 12-9, Cardinals 18-15 in overtime, Indianapolis Colts 26-23 in overtime, Washington Redskins 26-24, and Philadelphia Eagles 33-10. The 49ers have home wins over the New York Giants 31-21 and Tennessee Titans 25-23 last week, plus road wins at the Chicago Bears 15-14 and Houston Texans 26-16. San Francisco was a 2.5 point favorite against Tennessee and the total was 44.5. The 49ers are 7-7 ATS and the total is 6-8 this season.

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Jacksonville is outscoring teams 27-15 this season. The Jaguars are #5 in scoring and lead the league in points allowed. Jacksonville averages 368 total yards per game on offense including 219 passing and 149 rushing yards. The Jags are #6 in total offense and lead the league in rushing. On defense, Jacksonville allows 284 total yards including 169 passing yards and 115 rushing yards. The Jaguars are #3 in total and #1 in pass defense. Jacksonville is 82/209 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 66/202. Jacksonville has forced 51 sacks and allowed 21 this season. The Jaguars are +15 in turnovers. Jacksonville has scored 6 defensive touchdowns and a special teams touchdown.

Quarterback Blake Bortles has completed 61% of his passes for 3,147 yards with 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and has rushed for 282 yards on 51 carries with 2 touchdowns. He has been sacked 21 times. He is probable with a wrist injury. He has started 45 straight games.

Rookie Running back Leonard Fournette has 231 carries for 923 yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 29 catches for 213 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a quad injury.  Chris Ivory has 112 carries for 312 yards and a touchdown, along with 21 catches for 175 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a back injury. Corey Grant has 30 carries for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 3 catches for 41 yards. T.J. Yeldon has 40 carries for 235 yards and a touchdown, plus 22 catches for 162 yards.

Receiver Marqise Lee has 56 catches for 702 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is out with an ankle injury but looks to return for the playoffs. Keelan Cole has 32 catches for 607 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Allen Hurns has 36 catches for 446 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with an ankle injury.  Tight end Marcedes Lewis has 21 catches for 283 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Dede Westbrook has 22 catches for 256 yards and a touchdown. Receivers Arrelious Benn, Larry Pinkard, Allen Robinson and Rashad Greene are all out for the season.

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San Francisco is being outscored 24-18 this season. The 49ers are #25 in scoring and #24 in points allowed. The 49ers average 340 yards per game on offense including 243 passing and 97 rushing. The 49ers are #24 in rushing. San Francisco is allowing 350 total yards per game including 231 passing and 119 rushing yards per game. San Francisco is #23 in total offense and #22 in pass defense. The 49ers are 83/225 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 92/202. The 49ers have allowed 42 sacks and forced 26 this season. San Francisco is -4 in turnovers.

San Francisco has used three quarterbacks this season. They acquired Jimmy Garoppolo at the trade deadline from the New England Patriots. He has completed 68.7% of his passes for 1,026 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He has been sacked seven times. C.J. Beathard started a few games. Beathard has completed 54.9% of his passes for 1,430 yards with 4  touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and has 26 carries for 136 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. He has been sacked 19 times. Quarterback Brian Hoyer started the season, but is now with the Patriots. He wasn’t traded but signed as the back-up after the Garaoppolo trade. Hoyer has completed 58% of his passes for 1,245 yards with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has a rushing touchdown and has been sacked 16 times.

Running back Carlos Hyde has 204 carries for 796 yards and five touchdowns, plus 54 catches for 321 yards.  Matt Breida has 82 carries for 319 yards and a touchdown, plus 19 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a knee injury. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has only 31 rushing yards, but he does have  24 catches for 220 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Marquise Goodwin has 51 catches for 897 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a back injury. Pierre Garcon has 40 catches for 500 yards. He is out for the season with a neck injury. Trent Taylor has 38 catches for 382 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a shoulder injury. Tight end George Kittle has 36 catches for 373 yards and a touchdown. Tight end  Garrett Celek has 20 catches for 308 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is questionable with a knee injury.  Aldrick Robinson has 17 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a concussion.  Fourteen defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Both these teams are banged up at the skill positions. The 49ers have become a real life NFL franchise instead of the joke they have been in recent seasons. Still, the Jacksonville defense will be too much, and I like the Jags to win and wrap up at least the #3 seed in the playoffs.

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