NFL Week #15 Betting Picks: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, Missouri

Sunday, December 14, 2014, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Kansas City -12
Current Line: Kansas City -10 (-115)
Opening Total: 41 1/2
Current Total: 41 1/2
Opening Money Line: Chiefs -650 / Raiders +475
Current Money Line: Chiefs -600 / Raiders +450 

Kansas City looks to snap a three game losing streak as they host Oakland Sunday.
Kansas City looks to snap a three game losing streak as they host Oakland Sunday.

The Oakland Raiders started off the season 0-10 but they have won 2 of their last 3 games. The Raiders were heavy home underdogs on the NFL bet lines against the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers but won both games against playoff contenders. Now the Raiders travel to Kansas City for the rematch against the Chiefs. Before the last game against the Raiders 3 weeks ago, the Chiefs were 7-3 after a 5 game winning streak. The loss against Oakland sent the Chiefs on a three game tailspin and they are in danger of falling out of playoff contention in the AFC  where 8 teams are within a game of the two wild card spots.

Since 2001, Kansas City leads the series against Oakland 15-12. The Raiders have won 4 of the last 6 games in the series including 24-20 three weeks ago in Oakland.

Oakland fired coach Dennis Allen earlier in the season, and replaced him with interim coach Tony Sparano. The Raiders have home wins over the Chiefs 24-20 and 49ers 24-13 last week. Oakland has road losses to the New York Jets 19-14, New England Patriots 16-9, Miami Dolphins 38-14 in London, Cleveland Browns 23-13, Seattle Seahawks 30-24, San Diego Chargers 13-6 and St. Louis Rams 52-0. The Raiders have home losses to the Houston Texans 30-14, Chargers 31-28, Arizona Cardinals 24-13, and Denver Broncos 41-17. Oakland is 7-6 ATS and the total is 7-6 this season. The Raiders were 8 point underdogs on the NFL online betting odds against the 49ers and the total was 40.5.

Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid. The Chiefs have home losses to the Tennessee Titans 26-10 and Denver Broncos 29-16 and road losses at the Denver Broncos 24-17, San Francisco 49ers 22-17, Raiders and Cardinals 17-14 last week . Kansas City has road wins over the Miami Dolphins 34-15, San Diego Chargers 23-20 and Buffalo Bills 17-13, along with home wins over the New England Patriots 41-14, St. Louis Rams 34-7, New York Jets 24-10 and Seahawks 24-20. The Chiefs are 8-5 ATS and the total is 4-9 this season. Kansas City was a 2.5 point favorite against the Cardinals and the total was 41.5.

Oakland is being outscored 27-15 this season. The Raiders are #31 in scoring and #28 in points allowed. Oakland is averaging 284 yards per game on offense including 210 passing and 74 rushing yards. The Raiders are last in total and rushing offense and #25 in passing. On defense, Oakland is allowing 351 yards per game including 223 passing and 128 rushing yards. The Raiders are #14 in total offense and #7 in pass defense. The rush defense is #24. Oakland is 74/190 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 74/186. The Raiders have 18 sacks and have allowed 20 this season. Oakland is -16 in turnovers. The Raiders have allowed 3 defensive touchdowns and have scored one of their own.

Oakland rookie quarterback Derek Carr has completed 60.5% of his passes for 2,676 yards with 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, along with 86 rushing yards. Matt McGloin and Matt Schaub have also taken a few snaps this season.

Running back Darren McFadden has 140 carries for 454 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 33 catches for 206 yards. Latavius Murray has 37 carries for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 44 yards. Receiver James Jones has 62 catches for 589 yards and 4 touchdowns. Andre Holmes has 37 catches for 540 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Mychal Rivera has 48 catches for 464 yards and 4 touchdowns. Brice Butler has 17 catches fro 259 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nine defensive players are questionable or out.

Kansas City is outscoring teams 22-19 this season. The Chiefs are #5 in points allowed. Kansas City is averaging 318 yards per game including 189 passing and 129 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are #6 in rushing and #31 in passing out of 32 teams. Kansas City is #26 in total offense. On defense, KC is allowing 336 yards per game including 199 passing and 137 rushing. The Chiefs are #8 in total defense and #2 in pass defense. The Chiefs are #31 in rush defense. Kansas City is 73/172 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 73/194. The Chiefs have forced 34 sacks and allowed 38 this season. Kansas City is -5 in turnovers this season. The Chiefs have 2 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith has completed 65.3% of his passes for 2,657 yards with 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions along with 44 carries for 223 yards and a touchdown. Running back Jamaal Charles has 172 carries for 898 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 32 catches for 234 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury. Knile Davis has 114 carries for 427 yards and 5 touchdowns along with 14 catches for 68 yards. He also has a kick return for a touchdown.

Tight end Travis Kelce has 51 catches for 688 yards with 4 touchdowns. Receiver Dwayne Bowe has 48 catches for 598 yards. Tight end Anthony Fasano has 23 catches for 223 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is questionable with a knee injury. Donnie Avery has 15 catches for 176 yards. Nine defensive players are questionable to out Sunday for Kansas City.

People who partake in NFL betting will be interested to know Oakland is 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records, and after rushing for less than 90 yards, 4-1-1 after allowing less than 250 total yards, 3-1-1 in week 15, 18-37-1 in December,  4-9 on grass, 5-15-1 after a cover, and 1-6-1 after a straight up win. The road team is 22-8-1 ATS in this series recently. The underdog is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 games between Oakland and Kansas City. The raiders ahve covered 7 of the last 8 trips to Kansas City.

Kansas City is 6-1 ATS after allowing 350 total yards or more, 4-1 at home and against teams with losing records, 6-2 against AFC teams, 3-7 in December, and 1-4 against teams with losing road records. The under is 15-4 ATS in this series recently including the last six games in Kansas City.

Kansas City looked like a potential Super Bowl contender just a few weeks ago, but now will struggle to even make the playoffs. This is a must win game for the Chiefs as they finish at Pittsburgh and at home against San Diego. I think the Chiefs win a low scoring game against the suddenly dangerous Raiders.

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