Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, Maryland
Sunday, December 14, 2014, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Baltimore -13 1/2
Current Line: Baltimore -14
Opening Total: 45 1/2
Current Total: 45
Opening Money Line: Ravens -950 / Jaguars +700
Current Money Line: Ravens -950 / Jaguars +700
The 8-5 Baltimore Ravens are tied with the San Diego Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers for the two wild card playoff spots in the AFC, ahead of 5 teams at 7-6. Baltimore would lose the tiebreaker to Pittsburgh and San Diego because of a worse conference record. The Ravens and Steelers are also a half game behind the 8-4-1 Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North. Baltimore faces a must win game Sunday as they host the 2-11 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is tied for the worst record in the league with 4 other teams.
Since 2001, Baltimore leads the series 5-2 against Jacksonville. The Jaguars won the last meeting 12-7 in 2011 in Jacksonville. The Jags have not played in Baltimore since 2008.
Jacksonville is coached by Gus Bradley. The only wins for the Jaguars came at home over the Cleveland Browns 24-6 and New York Giants 25-24. The Jags have lost 5 of their last 6 games. Jacksonville has road losses at the Philadelphia Eagles 34-17, Washington Redskins 41-17, San Diego Chargers 33-14, Tennessee Titans 16-14, Cincinnati Bengals 33-23, Dallas Cowboys 31-17 in London, and Indianapolis Colts 23-3 . The Jaguars also have home losses to the Colts 44-17, Steelers 17-9, Miami Dolphins 27-13 and Houston Texans 27-13 last week . Jacksonville is 3-9-1 ATS and the total is 7-6 this season. The Jaguars were 6.5 point underdogs on the NFL betting lines against the Texans and the total was 42.
Baltimore is coached by John Harbaugh. The Ravens have home wins over the Steelers 26-6, Carolina Panthers 38-10, Atlanta Falcons 29-7, and Tennessee Titans 21-7, along with road wins at the Cleveland Browns 23-21, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48-17, New Orleans Saints 34-27 and last week at the Miami Dolphins 28-13. Baltimore has home losses to the Cincinnati Bengals 23-16 and San Diego Chargers 34-33, and road losses at the Colts 20-13, Bengals 27-24 and Steelers 43-23. The Ravens have won 3 of the last 4 games. Baltimore is 7-5-1 ATS and the total is 7-6 this season. The Ravens were 3 point underdogs against the Dolphins last week and the total was 45.
Jacksonville is being outscored 27-15. The Jaguars are #29 in points allowed and last in scoring. Jacksonville is averaging 297 yards per game including 201 passing and 96 rushing yards per game. The Jaguars are #24 or worse in all three categories. On defense, Jacksonville is allowing 377 yards per game including 244 passing and 133 rushing yards per game. The Jaguars are #27 in total defense and #28 in rush defense. Jacksonville is 64/188 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 84/200. The Jaguars have forced 38 sacks and allowed 54 this season. The Jaguars are -8 in turnovers. Jacksonville has allowed 5 defensive touchdowns this season and scored 2 of their own.
Jacksonville rookie quarterback Blake Bortles replaced Chad Henne earlier in the season. Bortles has completed 61.2% of his passes for 2,466 yards with 10 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, along with 47 carries for 306 yards. Henne threw for 492 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. He hasn’t played since week 3 when Bortles took over against the Colts.
Running back Denard Robinson has 135 carries for 582 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 23 catches for 124 yards. He is out for the season with a foot injury. Toby Gerhart has 73 carries for 211 yards and a touchdown, plus 17 catches for 170 yards. Storm Johnson has 20 carries for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Receiver Allen Hurns has 40 catches for 566 yards and 6 touchdowns. Allen Robinson has 48 catches for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out for the season with a foot injury. Cecil Shorts III has 40 catches for 419 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Clay Harbor has 26 catches for 289 yards and a touchdown. Six defensive players are listed on the injury report.
Baltimore is outscoring teams 27-20 this season. The Ravens are #7 in scoring and #6 in points allowed. Baltimore is averaging 377 yards per game on offense including 241 passing and 136 rushing yards. The Ravens are #10 in total offense and #5 in rushing. On defense, Baltimore is allowing 352 total yards per game including 267 passing and 85 rushing yards. Baltimore is #31 in pass defense and #4 in rush defense. The Ravens are 81/180 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 77/179. Baltimore has forced 37 sacks and allowed 16 this season. The Ravens are +2 in turnovers. The Ravens have a defensive and a special teams touchdown this season.
Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco has completed 64% of his passes for 3,258 yards with 22 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, along with 56 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Justin Forsett has 192 carries for 1,080 yards with 8 touchdowns, along with 37 catches for 234 yards. Bernard Pierce has 80 carries for 323 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 2 catches. Lorenzo Taliaferro has 68 carries for 292 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 114 yards. He is doubtful with an ankle injury.
Receiver Steve Smith has 61 catches for 889 yards and 6 touchdowns. Torrey Smith has 38 catches for 609 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is doubtful with a knee injury. Tight end Owen Daniels has 41 catches for 412 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kamar Aiken has 22 catches for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eight defensive players are questionable or out for Baltimore.
NFL betting experts know the Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, 2-5-1 in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home, 9-23-2 in their last 34 games overall, 3-8-2 in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss, 9-24-2 vs. a team with a winning record, 2-6-2 in their last 10 games following a loss, 4-13 in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 2-8-1 in their last 11 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 1-5-1 in their last 7 road games, 1-6-1 in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game, 0-3-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 0-5 in their last 5 games in Week 15, 0-3-1 in their last 4 games in December, 0-3-1 in their last 4 vs. AFC, 0-3-1 in their last 4 games on fieldturf. The underdog is 11-5-3 in this series recently. The under is 3-1-1 in this series recently.
The Ravens are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-1 in their last 5 home games, 4-1 in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game, Ravens are 3-8-1 in their last 12 vs. AFC, Ravens are 2-6-1 in their last 9 games following a ATS win, Ravens are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in December, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points, and 1-4-1 in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The home team is 5-0-1 ATS in this series recently. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 games in Baltimore in the series. The Ravens are 3-2-1 ATS at home against the Jaguars recently.
Baltimore has way too much at stake to take this game for granted. They should win easily and I think the Ravens take care of business at home.
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